Revised below: I got the size wrong on nukes. And, I’m not saying we should alter course by asking Ukraine to make peace. But, I’m worried that out of desperation to stay in power, Putin will use a tactical nuke.
www.bbc.com/...
I’m reading the articles here and elsewhere in the news, and seeing a serious misread of Putin, and the situation in Ukraine. Putin loves using misinformation and gaslighting others. Like Trump, he projects his own villainy onto opponents. He’s attempting “nuclear blackmail”, not suffering that from NATO.
Putin will happily use a 1KT ‘baby’ nuke on Ukraine. He can drop it on Kyiv, or better yet Lwow. Either city’s loss will break the Ukrainian war effort in the east. Not that Ukraine won’t fight on. They will, but the loss of the conduit of NATO supplies coming in through Lwow and on to Kyiv is critical to their offensive capability.
If he nukes Kyiv, he probably kills Zelensky, a propaganda victory of great value. Zelensky is a symbol of his people, and has built personal relationships with many leaders of NATO countries. But, I doubt he will, as Kyiv is close to the Russian border. As a prior blog here pointed out, the radioactive fallout from Kyiv, would be horrendous to Russia as well. However, Putin, like Trump, believes other people exist for his use, not to be protected. He has never hesitated to murder anyone…Chechnyans, Russians, Ukrainians…killing anyone is fair game to this guy. Nuking Kyiv is the simple way to ‘win’ the war. Or…maybe he does not need to do that…at all.
If he hits Lwow, the radioactive fallout is moved hundreds of miles to the west, away from Russia and the places he wants to absorb. Also, that creates an ecological catastrophe for Poland and Eastern Europe to distract them from helping Ukraine. NATO logistical support all comes through Lwow…without that city, the country falls.
All Putin needs to hit either city is the excuse that Russia is being invaded. Then he can use a nuke. By doing these sham elections in Kherson, Luhansk, etc., he is making them part of Russia. Ukraine will not stop winning conventional victories. But it will be hard to stop a nuke.
Russia developed 1KT+ nukes. These are smaller than standard, intended for tactical use on the battlefield. But, they can quite handily level a city.
Putin knows that defeat in the war will invariably cause his death.
He cares nothing for most people, even his own countrymen.
He has motive and soon will have opportunity to use a ‘baby nuke’.
It will upset Europe, but it will make many NATO countries fear him.
The war might escalate at that point. But more likely, Ukraine will be abandoned, despite much lamenting.