The Rio Grande Valley has been an interesting place politically for the past couple of election cycles. Since it was first created in 1903, the district has given eight Democratic incumbents long tenures in D.C. It has been a Democratic bastion since time immemorial, but the coalition that wins elections there is fraying.
All three South Texas districts were contested by the GOP in 2022, with differing results. Their incumbent, GOP Rep. Mayra Flores, in Texas 34 went down to another incumbent in Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. The challenge to Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas 28 fell flat. That leaves Texas 15, which was the district purposely gerrymandered so that the GOP could win it.
If you look at who is successful in the RGV, it typically isn’t the progressive candidates. Jessica Cisneros has challenged Cuellar in the primary twice in a row and has fallen short. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez was ejected from Congress in a primary back in the 2000s for being too progressive. You can now add in our candidate for Texas-15, Michelle Vallejo, who was defeated in 2022.
However, Vallejo isn’t a quitter. She is running again, and has a point to prove. She believes that South Texas IS ready to elect a progressive politician to Congress. To do that, she needs to flip a district Trump won and knock off an incumbent in Rep. Monica De la Cruz. Question is, can she REALLY win in the Rio Grande Valley?
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Michelle Vallejo for Texas-15
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an R+1 PVI
The Rio Grande Valley has been staunchly Democratic throughout its history, although much of that history involves suppressing the Hispanic vote and making sure that whites only were allowed to vote. Eventually, the VRA that Congress passed in the 1960s gave voting rights to the Hispanic majority along the Rio Grande Valley, and they responded by electing moderate Democratic members of Congress.
The seat wasn’t closely contested during the Obama era or even during Trump’s first run. The Democratic candidates for president received over 55% of the vote each time, and this seat was ignored. The issue with this seat came only during the 2020 election, when Biden only narrowly carried it and the member of Congress was nearly ousted.
Whether it was voters flipping or Trump finding new voters, the Rio Grande Valley cannot be counted upon any more. The Texas state legislature hastened the demise of this district by drawing a seat Trump won 51.0% to 48.1%, a margin of three points. Rep. Monica De la Cruz won by even more than that in 2022, flipping this seat by a 53.3% to 44.8% margin. Michelle Vallejo has a tall task ahead of her, making up 13,000 votes in an area with anemic turnout.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 15th district.
- Mission, McAllen, Edinburg: The Texas State Legislature redrew the 15th district to include more of western Hidalgo County during the 2020 redistricting cycle. The cities along the Rio Grande Valley still vote for Democratic candidates, just not like they did before 2020. Vallejo will need to find a way to restore the old margin of victory or this seat will surely stay with the Republicans. It will be a difficult task.
- Jim Wells and Brooks County: These counties used to give overwhelming margins to Democratic candidates. Brooks County still votes that way at a lesser margin, but Jim Wells County flipped last time. Vallejo will likely need to win both counties at the old margins to win the seat.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Guadalupe County: This is the largest GOP county in the district, and apart from a few precincts in Seguin, it overwhelmingly supports Republicans. If Vallejo loses, it is likely the inclusion of this county that will sink her.
- Wilson, Karnes, and Live Oak Counties: These counties are hopelessly red, each giving Trump above 70% of the vote in 2020. Luckily, they are small counties with few voters. Vallejo has better opportunities in restoring the voting margins in the RGV than finding voters here.
Who is Michelle Vallejo?
Michelle Vallejo, like many in the Rio Grande Valley, has relatives on both sides of the border. Her parents were farm workers in northern Mexico. They migrated to the RGV seeking a better life. She went to college at Columbia University to study political science and history. Vallejo and her family run Pulga Los Portales, a flea market in the RGV. She is part of many organizations that look to advance equality and progressives across south Texas. For more information on her, watch her 2024 launch video:
Most of the information below was found on the issues page on her campaign website. Also, this interview with a local news anchor was very helpful.
- Health Care Focus. Texas has refused to expand Medicaid. Vallejo would vote for expanded coverage so more South Texans are covered. She would expand Medicare coverage and add in dental, vision, and more. She would work on tackling the rural hospital closure crisis.
- Protecting Abortion Rights. Texas has one of the strictest abortion laws in the nation. Vallejo would be a vote to codify Roe v. Wade, as well as a vote against a national abortion ban and a contraception ban. Reproductive Freedom for All and Emily’s List have endorsed her run. She is really campaigning hard on abortion rights, with more evidence coming in an NPR interview.
- Defending Democracy. Vallejo knows that South Texas has a history of breaking voting rights laws. She would support the John Lewis VRA, an end to gerrymandering, and getting money out politics. The Voter Protection Project and End Citizens United both endorse her campaign.
- Saving Social Security. One of the major themes of her campaign is the protection of Social Security (and Medicare) from GOP cuts to both programs. Instead of privatizing it, cutting it, or damaging it, Vallejo would likely raise the cap to ensure the program remains solvent.
- Fair Trade Fighter. Vallejo points out that the maquiladoras across the Rio Grande suppress wages in the RGV. She would fight to index the minimum wage to inflation, and would work to renegotiate trade deals so that places like South Texas aren’t exploited by corporations.
- Education Advocate. Vallejo is still paying off student loans, and knows higher education has become unaffordable for many who desire it. She would work to make community college and trade school tuition free so that South Texans can gain skills and good paying jobs.
- Gun Safety Champion. Vallejo supports red flag laws, enhanced background checks, and a stop to permit-less concealed carry. She has voiced in the past support for an assault weapons ban, and it is likely she would support such a measure again if elected to Congress. Giffords PAC has endorsed her campaign.
- Climate Crisis. Vallejo does get a knock on her record for supporting an “all of the above” energy plan, but that is reality in an oil producing region in Texas. Her support for increased wind and solar energy production to eventually replace those jobs is more important. The League of Conservation Voters has endorsed her campaign.
- Concerned with Immigration. Immigration is a complex issue in South Texas, with many good paying jobs going to ICE officials and detention centers. But many who live in the RGV are immigrants working alongside the Tejanos. Vallejo balances securing the border with a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and support for the DACA program.
- Fairer Tax Code. Instead of cutting the budget on the backs of working families, Vallejo would make sure that the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share in taxes. She does not support reversing the extra funding the IRS got to bust high end tax cheats, for example.
Who is Rep. Monica De la Cruz?
Monica De la Cruz is the second Republican to represent the Rio Grande Valley in over a century. She is also the first member of the GOP to hold the 15th district of Texas. Before heading to Congress, she was an insurance agent and a small business owner. She dealt with an acrimonious divorce from her husband in 2021, with accusations flying on both sides. In Congress, she has been another MAGA Republican, although she has been fairly quiet. She did an interview with CSPAN as a part of the new members series.
Most of the information below comes from her issues page.
- Immigration Hardliner. De la Cruz voted for the draconian HR2, which is the cruelest immigration bill since the Exclusion Acts. She would force asylum seekers to remain in Mexico, would finish building the wall, and more.
- Repealing the Welfare State. Although she doesn’t come out and state it directly, De la Cruz would repeal the ACA, and possibly Medicaid and Medicare. She wants to ‘stop the government takeover of healthcare’ and ‘implement market policies to drive costs down’. She has called for the privatization of Social Security as well.
- Forced Birth Maniac. Her positions on abortion have been scrubbed from her campaign website, other than a mention that she is ‘pro-life’. According to her opponent, De la Cruz would support a national abortion ban without any exceptions. The De la Cruz campaign claims to only support an abortion to save the life of the mother.
- Dismantling Education. De la Cruz would support school choice nationwide, and would likely encourage a nationwide voucher scheme (or at least promote it in each state). She claims she wants to eliminate bureaucracy at the Dept. of Education, but I bet she’d vote to eliminate it.
- “Woke Warrior”. De la Cruz believes the nonsense that CRT has invaded the classroom, and that “anti-American propaganda” needs to be banned. Furthermore, she believes that ‘woke liberal nonsense’ is affecting our military and preventing it from being ready for challenges.
- Election Denier. De la Cruz signed on and supported the Texas v. Pennsylvania election case that sought to throw out electoral votes due to fraud. She has also claimed that her 2020 election, in which she lost, was also marred by fraud.
- 2nd Amendment Zealot. Another issue scrubbed from her issues page, De la Cruz briefly mentions that she’ll stand strong for 2nd amendment rights. Doing that means voting down all gun safety restrictions put forth and voting to loosen gun laws. She claims that gun safety regulations do not work.
- Debt and Deficit Peacock. De la Cruz supports a Balanced Budget Amendment, which would either cause drastic tax increases or shut down the government. She opposes all tax increases. She has voted to repeal most of the Inflation Reduction Act, even though it lowered the deficit.
- Big Oil’s Best Friend. De la Cruz would support the fossil fuel industry by eliminating all regulations on it. Furthermore, she calls for energy independence but also opposes “radical socialist Green New Deal policies”. Thus, more oil production even though it is at a record.
- Tax Cut Terror. De la Cruz would vote to make the budget busting Trump tax cuts permanent. She also would vote to repeal the estate tax, which she calls the ‘death tax’. Finally, she would make sure that ‘unrealized gains’ would never be taxed.
How Can You Help?
If you want to prove that the Rio Grande Valley can truly elect a progressive candidate, the best way to do that is to fund Michelle Vallejo with a donation. That way, Vallejo has the cash to run ads, do GOTV, and pay her staffers. Exciting news from the DCCC for the Vallejo campaign!
There is definitely a gulf in fundraising between the two candidates for this district. The incumbent, Rep. Monica De la Cruz, raised $705k for the Q4 time period. Michelle Vallejo raised only $176k for Q4, which isn’t enough to be competitive. Hopefully her addition to Red to Blue heats up her fundraising totals. De la Cruz has an overwhelming amount of cash on hand at $1.56M, while Vallejo is struggling with only $226k to spend. Vallejo really needs donations from everyone...
If she is to win, she will need to run a grassroots campaign with quite a few volunteers. Between canvassing, text banking, and many other tasks, the work of a campaign is never finished. Spanish speakers are probably particularly prized for this district, being located in a heavily Hispanic area. If you live in the RGV, sign up for a shift today!
If you don’t wish to donate and you live far away from Texas, the last way you can help is through boosting Michelle Vallejo on social media. Reaching out on social media is as important as classic campaigning these days, because that’s where a significant chunk of people get their news from. Campaigns use social media to get their message out, as a fundraising base, and attack the opponent. She has been using social media for all three of these tasks.
Vallejo has a robust 10k followers on the site formerly known as Twitter. That is definitely a good amount to start with! Anyways, Vallejo summarizes her campaign against Rep. Monica De la Cruz in one convenient tweet.
It is much the same tale on Facebook, where Vallejo has 3.1k followers. That should be enough to run a competent social media campaign, and be able to raise funds. The content on her Facebook page mirrors that of her Twitter feed, but it isn’t an exact match. Here, she is taking a break from the campaign trail to enjoy a symphony concert!
Help spread the word today by following Michelle Vallejo and boosting her campaign in the critical realm of social media!
I’ll be blunt — this is a difficult race to win. While 2022 showed that the Rio Grande Valley didn’t trend more to the right, Michelle Vallejo has a mountain to climb in a district that Trump won in 2020 and is likely to win again in 2024. Add in the fact that she is espousing progressive issue positions (though more moderate than her previous run), and she is at a distinct disadvantage. Remember, the RGV generally does not support progressive candidates to Congress.
Rep. Monica De la Cruz is the 20th most vulnerable Republican according to Daily Kos. She has been very quiet while in Congress, supporting the party line on most votes. Her task for winning re-election is a simple one. She needs to run even with Trump and paint Vallejo as a socialist. That obviously worked last time, though with low turnout it is hard to compare 2020 with 2022. She didn’t have a record before joining Congress, and now there is one to attack. Only the voters in South Texas can decide if De la Cruz is too extreme for them.
Michelle Vallejo for Texas-15
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Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 12 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen