CALIFORNIA-3: REP. KEVIN KILEY
This district focuses on the Sacramento suburbs and then the spine of the Sierra Nevada in California. The incumbent is Rep. Kevin Kiley, who first won this seat in 2022. He is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump only won his district 49.7% to 47.9% in the 2020 election. Kiley did better than that in 2022, winning this seat by a 53.6% to 46.4% result.
We have our candidate in California Natural Resources Agency member Jessica Morse. Kiley won 56% in the Top 2 primary election in March, meaning Morse has an uphill climb to convince voters to pull the lever for her.
I wrote about this race on March 17, 2024.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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CALIFORNIA-41: REP. KEN CALVERT
This district combines portions of the Inland Empire with Palm Springs in southern California. The incumbent is Rep. Ken Calvert, who first came to Congress in 1992. He is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump barely won the district, as well as having a close race in 2022. Trump won this district 49.7% to 48.6% in 2020, while Calvert won 52.3% to 47.7% in the 2022 midterms.
Our 2022 candidate, former prosecutor Will Rollins, is our best chance of winning. He is the nominee that held Calvert to 53% in the Top 2 primary in early March. He’s raising a LOT of funds and this race could very well decide the House of Representatives.
I wrote about this race on February 18, 2024.
Rating: TOSSUP
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COLORADO-3: OPEN
This district features the city of Pueblo and the Western Slope of the state of Colorado. Rep. Lauren Boebert was a part of the #MAGADozen because she was involved in the closest House race in the country in 2022. Trump actually won her district 52.9% to 44.7% in 2020, showing that she alienates even her fellow Republicans. Boebert only won by less than 600 votes, or 50.1% to 49.9%.
Boebert decided to bail on this district to try and claim the safer 4th district of Colorado. There is a clown car primary to replace her. The Democratic nominee is 2022 nominee Adam Frisch. Frisch is raising tons of money, and that is what keeps this race competitive in spite of Boebert bailing.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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Florida-13: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna
This district features portions of the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area in Florida. The GOP egregiously gerrymandered this seat from a Democratic leaning one to one that is almost safe for Republicans. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna is a part of the #MAGADozen because her race was still somewhat close in spite of the Florida apocalypse in 2022. Trump won this district by a 52.9% to 46.1% margin in 2020, while the incumbent won 53.1% to 45.1% for her first election.
There are quite a few Democrats lining up to try and defeat the freshman legislator. The frontrunner seems to be Whitney Fox, but there is still time for others to enter into the race. This race is a longshot at best, but with Biden competing in Florida it puts it on the board.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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IOWA-1: REP. MARIANNETTE MILLER-MEEKS
This district is found in southeastern Iowa, and includes the University of Iowa and the Quad Cities. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is a part of the #MAGADozen because Trump barely won her district in 2020, only winning it 50.5% to 47.6%. Miller-Meeks had an easier time winning in 2022, romping over her opposition by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%. This may be our last chance of beating her before her district glides out of reach, because Iowa is on a trend to the right.
Miller-Meeks has just gained a primary challenger in 2024, because even MAGA Republicans aren’t pure enough. It remains to be seen if ministry founder David Pautsch is a true threat to her or not. The Democratic challenger is the same as in 2022, former State Rep. Christina Bohannan.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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IOWA-3: REP. ZACH NUNN
This district is located in southwestern Iowa, and includes the Des Moines metro area as well. Rep. Zach Nunn is included in the #MAGADozen because he barely won this seat in 2022. Trump also barely won this district by a 49.3% to 48.9% result in 2020. Nunn won 50.3% to 49.6% in 2022 over an incumbent Democratic member of Congress. This is the part of Iowa trending our way as well.
We now have two candidates for this district. One is Melissa Vine, who isn’t gaining much traction. The other candidate is Lanon Baccam, a former Dept. of Agriculture official and a military veteran. Baccam has already raised quite a bit of funds for this race.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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MICHIGAN-10: REP. JOHN JAMES
This district contains the suburbs of Detroit found primarily in Macomb County in Michigan. Rep. John James is part of the #MAGADozen because he barely won in 2022, and Trump barely won his district. Trump only won here 49.8% to 48.8% in 2020, and James only won 48.8% to 48.3% due to a third party spoiler. This will be a more difficult race in 2024, because Macomb County is prime Reagan/Trump Democrat country.
We have numerous candidates running for this district in 2024. There are so many of them that I am listing them instead of describing them. The primary election will be on August 6, 2024.
There are two other candidates, but they have yet to raise the amount of cash needed to be taken seriously in a very crowded primary.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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MONTANA-1: REP. RYAN ZINKE
This district contains the western portions of the state of Montana. Rep. Ryan Zinke is a part of the #MAGADozen because he had a close race in 2022. Zinke also had a scandal filled tenure as Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. Trump won this district 52.2% to 45.3% in 2020, but Zinke only won 49.6% to 46.5% in 2022. Montana is still open to electing the right type of Democratic candidate!
Hopefully, that candidate will be 2022 nominee and former Olympian Monica Tranel. She is the only one running so far, and no others appear to be interested. Tranel will have to hope that voters pull the lever for Tester and her while also voting for Trump, or she is a longshot at best.
I wrote about this race on January 7, 2024.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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New York-1: Rep. Nick LaLota
This district covers the easternmost portions of Long Island in the state of New York. Rep. Nick LaLota is another “moderate” that has a voting record that is MAGA Republican. Long Island was a terrible place for us election wise in 2022-23. Even though Trump only won this district 50.3% to 48.5%, I am not optimistic. LaLota easily crushed the opposition in 2022, winning 55.5% to 44.5%.
We have two candidates for this seat. Former No Labels founder John Avlon and 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff will face off for the right to challenge LaLota in November.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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New YOrk-2: Rep. Andrew Garbarino
This district covers some of eastern Long Island in the state of New York. Rep. Andrew Garbarino is another “moderate” that has a voting record that is MAGA Republican. Long Island was a terrible place for us election wise in 2022-23. Even though Trump only won this district 50.6% to 48.2%, I even less optimistic about this race. Garbarino easily crushed the opposition in 2022, winning 60.7% to 39.3%.
If it wasn’t for the Presidential margin and the abortion ballot initiative in New York, I wouldn’t include this race. Our potential nominee is businessman Rob Lubin. He will have a lot of work to do to flip voters in this district over to our cause.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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PENNSYLVANIA-10: REP. SCOTT PERRY
This district has both York and Harrisburg, and also has some rural southern Pennsylvania turf. Rep. Scott Perry is a member of the #MAGADozen because he is an insurrectionist found in a swing seat. He could be disqualified via a court case, but that is a long shot after Section 3 of the 14th Amendment did not disqualify Trump. Trump won this district 51.3% to 47.2% in 2020. We really didn’t challenge Perry in 2022, letting him skate by with a 53.8% to 46.2% win. A win like that over an underfunded challenger should be a cause for alarm in the incumbent! We also did well in this part of PA in the 2023 elections.
We have candidates lining up around the block to face him this time around. The list is quite long, so I am listing them instead of describing each one of them. The primary election is April 23, 2024.
We also have a couple more candidates, but they haven’t been raising enough money to get noticed in the primary election.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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SOUTH CAROLINA-1: REP. NANCY MACE
This district is found in the Lowcountry of South Carolina, and includes most of the coast and parts of Charleston. Rep. Nancy Mace is a member of the #MAGADozen due to her increasingly erratic behavior and the threat of a primary challenge. Trump won this district 53.5% to 44.9% in 2020, and Mace won 56.5% to 42.5% in 2022, so it is a reach district at best.
We have two candidates sparring to take on Mace. One is attorney and US Coast Guard veteran Mac Deford. The other competing in the primary is businessman Michael B. Moore. Mace is also under the threat of a primary challenge from attorney Catherine Templeton.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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TEXAS-15: REP. MONICA DE LA CRUZ
This district stretches from the Rio Grande Valley all the way to near San Antonio in the state of Texas. Rep. Monica De la Cruz is a member of the #MAGADozen because Trump narrowly won her district. Also, the map could be redrawn at some point this decade thanks to possible VRA violations. Trump won this district 51.0% to 48.1% in 2020, but De la Cruz won 53.3% to 44.8% in 2022.
Our candidate in 2024 is the same one as in 2022. Business owner Michelle Vallejo seems to have cleared the field, and is running a more moderate campaign than the progressive one she ran in 2022. It remains to be seen if she can close the gap with Rep. De la Cruz, however.
I wrote about this race on February 4, 2024.
Rating: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
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WISCONSIN-3: REP. DERRICK VAN ORDEN
This district is found in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin, as well as environs north of it. Rep. Derrick Van Orden is a part of the #MAGADozen for being an insurrectionist. Trump also only won this district 51.5% to 46.8%, but it is more swingy than that. Van Orden won his seat in Congress in 2022 by a 51.9% to 48.1% margin, a closer race than what was expected.
We have numerous candidates running for this seat in 2024. Instead of describing each one in detail, I will list them below. The primary for the state of Wisconsin is May 14th, 2024.
There’s one other candidate, but he hasn’t raised money or received much attention.
Rating: LEANS REPUBLICAN
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CONCLUSION
These #MAGADozen incumbents are much more likely to win their seats than lose them, but a lot can change in a few months, especially with the potent abortion issue and the utter shit show the House of Representatives will likely be for the foreseeable future. It is very likely that Trump will win their Congressional districts yet again, and that all the incumbents have to do is tie themselves to him to win. The challengers will have to convince Trump voters to cross over and vote for them — a tall task to get enough of them!
If the challengers win these seats, most of them will be moderate members of our coalition at best. Full throated progressivism wins you districts that are deep blue — it rarely wins in swing districts and it definitely won’t win us a district that Trump won in 2020. Remember the mantra of MORE AND BETTER DEMOCRATS. These are the “more” Democrats so that the better Democrats can safely vote for progressive legislation.
I am also considering adding at least two more districts to this fundraiser. The most likely choices are Wisconsin-1 and Florida-27. However, Arizona-2, Florida-15, Michigan-4, and Missouri-2 are also under consideration. Should I add any more of these races?
Thank you for reading, and thanks for the feedback!
Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 14 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen