Newport News Mayor McKinley price, seen here in his day job, is running for a third term
Virginians go to the polls in towns, counties, and cities across the state today to vote for various councils, school boards, and mayors. None of the places voting today are the biggest cities in the country by any means and there’s not any reason to think any major changes will occur, nor are many of the races officially partisan or driven by partisanship. Local issues will for the most part dictate today’s results. The system of election is far from uniform, so read closely for how the races are being elected in each locale. Hampton Roads dominates in terms of the most large communities with elections today.
As for my predictions, I personally am from Hampton Roads and go to school in the Southwest of the state and my knowledge of the races is strongest in those locales. That said, in Hampton Roads recent elections have dented some of the good ole boys club that has reigned for years as demographics change. This election has more tossups than I expected in Hampton Roads and could really shake things up. The number of candidates running is breaking records in many of the areas I will mention and make things even harder to predict.
In Hampton, 8 people (2 of them incumbents) are vying for 3 at-large spots on the City Council. Issues range from crime to recreation to large expansion projects, though like in all of Hampton Roads, race is also a factor. Incumbents Jimmy Gray and Teresa Schmidt appear to be strong favorites, though Gray’s community ties are stronger and Schmidt’s goals on sprucing up the waterfront may not resonate if the electorate is angry. Challengers Elanor Brown, Steven Brown, and Michelle Wallace all have extensive community ties through various commissions, churches, foundations, etc. At least one will win a spot on the council and maybe two if Schmidt falls short. Gun to my head, I’d say Steven Brown followed by Wallace are most likely to win those spots. The remaining three, while not gadflies, do not appear to have the connections needed to win.
On the school board, 4 people (2 of them incumbents) are vying for three seats. Incumbents Joe Kilgore and Jason Samuels seem like favorites to hold their seats and I expect HU professor Richard Mason to join them. The fourth candidate, Kendrick Turner, was actually convicted of falsifying signatures in his 2004 run for mayor and has been a perennial candidate in Newport News ever since but has moved back to Hampton as his 10 year ban from running has now expired.
In Newport News, politics have been dominated by prominent families and longtime incumbents. Development, crime, and battles between the city council and school board are shaping all elections in the city. Mayor McKinley Price, the father of Delegate Cia Price and brother-in-law of Congressman Bobby Scott, is running for a third term against three challengers. All are somewhat serious, especially councilman Marcellus Harris. While voters may be fatigued with Price, he remains a heavy favorite, especially with his challengers splitting the vote.
On the council, one of the two seats is up in each of the three districts. The most interesting race is in the North district, where incumbent Sharon Scott faces a challenge from Curtis Bethany, a millennial. Fellow councilmembers and the sheriff have all endorsed Bethany over their colleague. This is a rare crack in the establishment in the city. In the open central seat (the whitest and wealthiest district), five people are running. None appear to be overwhelming favorites, though Greg Roth’s focus on crime and transparency in a city with a lot of one and a lack of the other could resonate in this more upscale seat. In the south, Saundra Cherry faces two opponents with school board member John Eley being the most serious. I expect this one to be close, though activist Latonya Wallace may split the vote enough for Cherry to win again.
The school board also has one of two seats up in all three districts while an at-large member is running unopposed. In the north, Douglas Brown faces Priscillia Burnett, his predecessor who he beat in 2014 by 55 votes. There is no clear favorite, though a third candidate in the race could play spoiler for one of them. In the open central seat, all three candidates are fascinating. Jay Pruden is a former teacher and college department chair, Andrew Shannon is the chair of the Peninsula SCLC, and Lisa Surles-Law is a science educator at Jefferson Lab. They all have ties to the community and are very qualified and I see no clear-favorite. Gun to my head, I’d say Shannon wins but its up in the air. In the south, 12-year incumbent and kingergarten teacher Carlton Ashby faces two women who ran for the other seat here in 2016. Principal Terri Best nearly won that seat and presents a strong challenge, though the presence of a third candidate who did poorly in 2016 could hamper her efforts. Ashby is the favorite, though Best could sweep him out if the voters are angry enough.
In Chesapeake, a record seven seats are up for election to the city council, including the mayor. Chesapeake is the only swingy area of Hampton Roads with elections today and this election will test the GOP’s moderate level of control over the city and if the Dems are ready to really compete locally here. 11 candidates are running for five of the seats (top 5 win). 2 more are running in a special for mayor and three more for a special for a single council seat. In the Mayoral race, incumbent Ricky West, who ascended from his spot as vice mayor to the position, is endorsed by the GOP and has significantly outraised his opponent Jo Anne Gallant, a newcomer endorsed by the Democrats. Chesapeake is getting bluer, but West remains a strong favorite. On the council, of the five regularly scheduled seats up, two are open. Roland Davis and John de Triquet (endorsed by GOP) and former VA-04 candidate Ella Ward (endorsed by Dems) are favorites to retain their seats. All eight running as challengers have connections to the city. Retired fire chief Steve Best (GOP endorsed) seems like a favorite to pick up one of the open seats. The other seat, and who wins if any incumbents go down in an upset, seems like a tossup, though I would not be surprised if voters choose from some of the younger candidates running they’re looking for change. In the special, appointed incumbent and longtime former member of the council Dwight Parker (endorsed by Dems) faces two challengers, notably including 2016 VA-03 candidate Marty Williams. Parker is a favorite, but a Williams victory would not shock me.
For the school board, five seats are up and all the incumbents are running for re-election. Colleen Leary, Harry Murphy, Christine Craig, Louis Tayon, and Michael Woods are all endorsed by the GOP and have a combined 56 years experience on the board. The Dems only endorsed three challengers, one of them a high school student. Sharon Clayton-Johnson appears to be the strongest challenger as the owner of a local restaurant. She is endorsed by Dems along with physician Patricia King. The other challengers do not appear likely to be competitive, though a surprise could happen. Overall, I expect all five incumbents to win again, though a challenger could slip through if the voters are angry enough.
In Norfolk, its back to the local issues and factions sees on the Peninsula, though the elections in Norfolk have generally been quiet this year with no particular issue taking center stage. On the city council, Ward 1 incumbent Martin Thomas is unopposed, as is longtime Ward 4 incumbent Paul Riddick and Ward 5 incumbent Tommy Smigiel. An open seat in Ward 2 has three candidates, with school board member Courtney Doyle a strong favorite over two lower level challengers. In Ward 3, Mamie Johnson is being challenged by William Collins in her bid for a second term. Collins placed fifth out of six in the last election for this seat, so Johnson is a heavy favorite.
The school board is more interesting, as it is being elected for the first time after previously being appointed. Two citywide seats were elected in 2016 with five ward seats up this year. In Ward 1, former council member Nicole Carry faces Adale Martin, the ED of a local library foundation. This one is a tossup. In Ward 2, ODU academic adviser Brittany Shearer, teacher Nate Kinnison, and incumbent Tanya Bhasin are running. All three are qualified and could win, though I’d give the edge to Bhasin closely followed by Shearer. In Ward 3, teacher Ronel Brewer, veteran Jackie Glass, and community advocate Carlos Clanton are facing off. I’d give the edge to Clanton as he has the most connections, though Brewer or Glass could surprise. In Ward 4, ODU administrator Bonita Anthony and Norfolk State professor Leon Rouson lead the pack, though substitute teacher Alfreda Thomas and accountant Christine Smith could surprise. In Ward 5, former principal Lauren Campsen is the favorite against teacher Arthur Broadbent. Overall, I’m watching to see whether teaching experience or community ties wins out in the first elections in the wards for school board.
In Smithfield, my home town on the Southside of Hampton Roads, elections today mark a period of change. With three of the four town council members leaving and the town manager also retiring and many projects about to get underway, a lot is at stake. Incumbent mayor Carter Williams (mayor is just a member of the Council) is the only one running for re-election. I expect former sheriff’s deputy Wayne Hall (who once pulled me over- small town) to join him as the most likely to win out of five challengers. Between NAACP chair Valerie Butler, newcomer Beth Haywood, veteran Chris Torre, and planning commission member Bill Davidson, I have no idea who will win. The Daily Press endorsed Williams, Torre, Davidson, and Butler, but that may not carry much weight. Just a few years ago, I knew everyone running for council personally- this time I only really know two of them. Times change.
In the Roanoke Valley region of Virginia, a number of localities have elctions. In Roanoke City, growing partisan factions are coming into play much like in Chesapeake. After years of turmoil on the council related to the tearing down of a local stadium, recent years have seen stability on the council and growth economically in an otherwise challenged region. Two independents are running for re-election, Ray Ferris and Bill Bestpitch while Democrat David Trinkle is retiring. Three Democrats and two independents are running to fill his seat and maybe take down the incumbents. All five seem to be appealing to lower income regions of the city saying economic growth has not been equal. Independents Shawn Hunter (small business owner) and Grover Price (community advocate) are both black and have stated a need for more diversity. A win by either of them or Democrat Robert Jeffrey, a publisher, would be the first time the council had three elected black members (2 are already on the council). Hunter however has a past conviction for sexual assault, a crime he says he did not commit, but it still looms over his campaign. Democrat Joe Cobb, a pastor for an inclusive church, would be the first openly gay member if elected. Djuna Osborne, a social worker who lost a race for House of Delegates in 2017, is the only woman running. Overall, I expect the two incumbents to win again with Grover Price being the most likely to win the third seat. However, there are rumblings of change and Trump-era restlessness among Democrats. All three seats going to challengers remains a distinct possibility and any of them, maybe even Hunter could win with it being difficult to feel out favorites among such a qualified crowd. This will be a race to watch tonight.
In the city of Salem, where there is a record interest but little conflict on the issues, two seats for city council are up with one of them open. Mayor Randy Foley is seeking re-election and is a favorite to accomplish that. Civic center director John Saunders strikes me as the most likely of five challengers to pick up the open seat, though minster Todd Hester, teachers Joshua Kier and Renee Turk, and former police officer Tim Sutphin (who lost a crowded race for sheriff last year) could all surprise.
In the New River Valley, voters in Radford City will voice their concerns on aging schools and budgetary issues. For Mayor, city council member Keith Marshall will face off against Chamber of Commerce chair David Horton in a tossup race. On the Council, two seats are up with one open. Incumbent Mick Turk will likely retain his seat. School board member Jessie Criterion will likely join him on the board, though pastor Jason Vaughan (whose church is in Pulaski County, not Radford), businessman Ted Bess, or attorney Naomi Huntington could surprise. Two school board seats are up as well and both incumbents are running again. While there are three challengers, I see no reason to expect the incumbents to lose.
In NOVA, elections are primarily centered around Fairfax City and County. Education, traffic, and handling growth are all topics of discussion. The arrest of the former mayor in 2016 in a drugs-for-sex sting also adds some bonus excitement to the area. In Fairfax City, the mayor is unopposed, but eight people are running for six council seats. Four incumbents are running again: Michael DeMarco, Jennifer Passey, Janice Miller and Jon Stehle. Four challengers are fighting for the two open seats (or even beat the incumbents). Joe Harmon, a member of the city planning commission and former electoral board chair Tom Ross appear to have the best resumes to win the open seats. Insurance agent So Lim and congressional staffer Sang Yi could surprise, either in overtaking the other challengers or the incumbents, though I would be surprised.
In Prince William County, four towns are holding elections. Dumfries, Quantico, Occoquan, and Haymarket. Dumfries and Occoquan are electing new mayors while Quantico’s mayor faces a challenge and Haymarket’s mayor is unopposed. All four towns have competitive town council races.
In Loudoun County, the towns of Hamilton, Lovettsville, Middleburg, Purcellville, and Round Hill all hold elections. The only heated race I could find was for mayor of Purcellville where incumbent mayor Kwasi Fraser has faced controversy for trying to fire the police chief last year. He faces building code enforcer Christopher Thompson in an interesting race.
There are other races in towns and cities across the state. These range from counties in the Southside that are majority to black to counties in rural and conservative SW Virginia and everything in between. Declining industrial cities like Bristol and Danville also go to vote today. Notably, a shocking number of candidates are running for town council seats in the absurd number of towns on the Eastern Shore- democracy is strong in Accomack and Northampton Counties. If I discover anything shocking in these smaller towns, I’ll mention it in my follow up post.
