How to Interpret the CNN Shutdown Polling

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Saturday January 20, 2018 · 12:29 AM PST

2018/01/20 · 00:29

www.cnn.com/…

At first glance, CNN appears to have a bad poll for Democrats: “DACA not worth a shutdown,” it blares. Indeed, in that poll, 56% favor avoiding a shutdown even if it means caving on DACA, and only 34% favor continuing DACA even if it means shutting down.

There is also a bright spot: DACA itself is popular, with 84% saying DACA should continue. That part doesn’t get a headline or a neat little graph. Nor do they even bother to inform us how many people think it should not continue (as opposed to having no opinion or being indifferent).

The CNN article unfortunately slants its presentation of this data. I think these results should be very encouraging for Democrats. Here is why.

What the CNN polling does not ask is this: “Is blocking DACA so important that it is worth shutting down the government?” After all, that is the Republican position.

A shutdown requires the intransigence of both parties. A shutdown is not popular, nor should it be. It is a terrible event. The question presented by this polling data is, who is to be held responsible? Who is put in the worse position politically?

CNN, for reasons only they can explain, asked about only the Democratic policy goal in a way that attached it to the anchor of the shutdown, while not doing the same to the Republican position. This was not fair, but the results are nonetheless illuminating, because we can infer what a parallel question about the Republican position would have been.

Plainly, if 84% are in favor of DACA, then no more than 16% are against it. Thus, the percentage of people who are SO against it that they favor shutting down the government over blocking it has to be less than 16%.

Attaching the shutdown anchor to the Democratic policy position dragged it from 84% all the way down to 34%. Even if you believe that the same anchor would not weigh down the Republican position AT ALL, they would surely score no more than 16% if the tables were reversed and a similarly unfair framing was used against them.

Remember, the 16% includes some unknown percentage of people who don’t care one way or another about DACA; and it includes what has to be a significant percent who don’t like DACA, but aren’t willing to shut down the government to block it. What would be left? Maybe 5%, realistically? Who cares, fuck it, let’s give them the whole 16%.

And that is the apples-to-apples comparison. The democratic position on the shutdown is at least twice as popular. Republicans should be quaking in their boots over this poll, if they know how to properly interpret it, and if the poll itself doesn’t drive the narrative to the extent of becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I am not accusing CNN of being pro-Trump or anti-Democrat. Obviously, they are fierce critics of the president in general, and rightly so. I am accusing them of being lazy and/or innumerate. They need to do better.

A Fair and Balanced Comparison of the Presidential Candidates.

Argyrios

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Tuesday August 23, 2016 · 6:09 AM PDT

2016/08/23 · 06:09

On the one hand, Donald Trump began his political career with a racist attack against President Obama’s heritage. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump began his campaign by saying Mexico is sending us its rapists and has pledged to immediately implement a second Trail of Tears. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump has pledged to use the police power of the state to officially discriminate against people based on their religion. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump is a draft-dodger who insults veterans by saying that POWs are not heroes. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump mocks the disabled. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump lies about his net worth and has filed for bankruptcy multiple times. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump refuses to release his tax returns. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump has been sued hundred of times for failing to pay his small businessman contractors. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump calls women pigs and dogs and jokes about menstruation, and says women should be punished for having an abortion. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump retweets white supremacist memes and is a hero of the neo-nazi “alt right.” But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump thinks we should accept nuclear proliferation, wants Japan and Saudi Arabia to get nukes, and should be open to using nuclear weapons. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump wants to run NATO like a protection racket, has invited Putin to invade both his political opponents’ email servers and the Baltic states, and is in debt to Russian oligarchs. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump encourages violence at his rallies and promises to pay the legal fees of supporters who assault protesters. But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

On the one hand, Donald Trump exhibits disturbing authoritarian tendencies, wants to change the law to be able to sue journalists who say bad things about him, wants to bring back torture that is “a helluva lot worse than waterboarding” (because “torture works, folks,”) wants to try Americans at Guantanamo Bay, and admires Saddam Hussein, Kim Jong Un, and Vladimir Putin for being “strong leaders.” But on the other hand, Hillary Clinton has that email thing.

I guess the candidates are equally bad. After all, each time there is a scandal, the talking heads on TV have something equally bad to say about both candidates.

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