Continuing a growing wave of eye-popping polls, Atlanta Journal Constitution/SRBI has just released a poll taken between August 1-4, showing Clinton leading Trump 44 - 40 in GEORGIA. In the 4-way poll, including Johnson and Stein (note: Stein is not on the ballot...), Clinton leads +3, 41-38.
SRBI is rated A- by fivethirtyeight.
Some interesting takeaways from the crosstabs:
- 18-39 broke 41 Clinton, 27 Trump, 21 Johnson, and 4% Stein
- Clinton wins 89% of democrats, while Trump wins 79% of Republicans
- Johnson takes more away from republicans: he wins 3% of democrats and 9% of republicans. However, he also pulls more independents away from the Clinton vote than the Trump vote, since he narrows Clinton’s lead by 1%.
- Trump’s Black vote is even smaller than his hands: 2%
- Clinton wins under $50k with a wide lead (47-33), but loses $50-100k (34-43). $100k+ is 43-38 Clinton
In my opinion, Pennsylvania will be determinative of whether Trump has any path to victory (without Penn, I think 270 is hopeless for him). But Georgia is a tipping point, in my opinion. If Georgia turns blue, 2016 will be a landslide, with many down ballot implications.
Countdown begins for poll unskewing by Trump, including rigged election claims.
Ok, enough poll obsession for now. GOTV!!!
