How long have we all been hearing now that the Democrats can't win back the White House without a strong showing in the South? "No Democrat has won without taking five southern states" is the mantra of the centrists who insist that the party's left-wing won't be able to win over the culturally conservative swing voters in Dixie. LBJ, Carter, and Clinton were all southern Democrats who won the presidency largely by winning their home region. McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis were northern liberals who foundered nationwide.
A great article by Timothy Noah appeared in Slate yesterday arguing that the Democrats are better off letting go of the South. (Here's the link: http://slate.msn.com/id/2094552/) This is something I've felt strongly about for a while now. The cultural centrism required to be competitive in the South would not only alienate the party base, essential to getting the big turnout required to unseat an incumbent president, but it's doubtful that it would even be effective. George Bush is solidly entrenched all the way through from Texas to Virginia. I can't see any Democrat, no matter how centrist, being competitive in this region. Some pundits have tried to argue that Louisiana and/or Arkansas might be winnable if the right candidate came along, and it's tempting to go after those states when you look at the electoral math, but it has always seemed like a long shot to me.
Al Gore came excruciatingly close to winning the presidency in 2000 without carrying a single southern state. There's no reason to think the Democratic candidate in 2004 can't go all the way. A solid Democratic base centered in the northeast, the upper midwest, and the west coast can win the White House this year. Forget pandering to the Nascar dads. A more sensible strategy would be to concentrate on strengthening the wobbly base in the industrial midwest, and go after the expanding population centers of the southwest. That's your Democratic power base for the next generation.
For too long, the South (as a region) has had a disproportionate amount of influence in the tenor of national politics. Cutting loose the South, and the backstabbers like Zell Miller that go with it, will benefit the Democrats in the long run.
