Hurricane Lee with an eye towards the Caribbean
Hurricane Lee, as predicted, “strengthened at an exceptional rate”, going from 80 mph to 130 mph wind speeds in the past 12 hours. Warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions will favor further intensification in the next 9 hours to Cat 5 at 160 mph.
Lee’s track is expected to pass to the north of the northeastern Caribbean islands and then curve north. It is still too early for models to accurately predict the storm track beyond 5 days into the future, so such forecasts have a good amount of uncertainty built into them.
Here is some info on Hurricane Lee —
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS from www.nhc.noaa.gov/… updated Sep 8, 5:00 a.m. EDT.
INIT 08/0900Z 17.8N 53.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.1W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.5N 58.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.2N 60.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 21.9N 61.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 22.4N 62.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 23.3N 65.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 24.4N 67.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
Some models at www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/... predict wind speeds of Hurricane Lee to exceed 160 knots, i.e, 184 mph, in the next 24 hours.
A few spaghetti models showing the expected track of Hurricane Lee. As usual, a caveat is added that the uncertainty in the forecast is quite large beyond 5 days.
Note that these forecasts are based on weather models, which are computer programs that crunch through trillions of calculations based of complex equations developed by weather scientists. They take in hundreds of parameters and thousands of measurements made around the world. There is not much room for idle speculation or amateur forecasts by looking at graphics and extrapolating using a mental “sharpie.” Because weather models are anything but linear.
And the models always add the caveat that estimates beyond 5 days are inaccurate.
Lee still has a lot of warm waters (30C) to pick up strength from. The green and yellow areas east of Virginia have lower surface temperatures, caused by the churning as Hurricane Franklin passed by a few days ago! But it is expected to weaken after the turn, as it encounters cooler waters. So even if it strikes New England or eastern Canada, it will be a weaker storm by then.
Lee’s development today -
An AF Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently on its way to Hurricane Lee. Data from the mission will provide more accurate assessment of present conditions and lead to more accurate forecasts for the hurricane.
Real-time data updates can be seen at www.tropicaltidbits.com/... when the aircraft reaches the hurricane area.
The 2023 Hurricane Season
The 2023 hurricane season may have looked tame so far, but the hurricane season really ramps up in late August into September. September is when Atlantic hurricanes peak in number. See graph below.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be relatively mild due to the onset of El Nino. But the extra warm waters in the Atlantic led NOAA to revise its hurricane forecast in August as follows —
- Likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season = 60% (was 30% in May forecast)
- Likelihood of near-normal activity = 25% (was 40% in May forecast)
Here is the updated outlook for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season -
Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures have been unusually high this year, after all a lot of global warming heat ends up in the oceans. These high water temperatures are conducive to hurricane formation, while El Nino and trade winds tend to dampen them.
Below is a graph of global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from average) for the past 32 years. This year’s graph soars way above the rest.
Other Storms
There are a number of other storms buzzing around the globe.
- Hurricane Jova in the Pacific, currently packing 145 mph winds, off the coast of Mexico, thankfully headed west.
- Tropical storm Margot launched off the coast of Africa, predicted to veer north.
- Typhoon Haokui striking Hong Kong.
- Typhoon Saola which struck Philippines, South China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Northern Vietnam last weekend.
- Storm Daniel, a rare cyclonic storm in the Mediterranean, which has caused catastrophic flooding in Greece, dumping up to a meter of rain in many areas.
The common theme in all recent storms is the excessive heat in the oceans and excessive moisture in the atmosphere.
Epilogue
Let’s keep an eye on these storms as the hurricane season ramps up and make preparations ahead of time. Stay informed through the National Weather Service and local media outlets. Even if this one misses the U.S., there are plenty more where they come from.
Let’s keep educating the public about climate change and global warming, that it is caused by human activity and increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most of it contributed by fossils fuels, and what we are seeing this year in terms of heat waves, wildfires, storms, floods and droughts is a preview of what lies ahead.
Let’s also keep neutralizing the massive disinformation campaign launched by the republican party and their paymasters — the fossil fuel companies, the billionaire club and various state actors.
And let’s keep emphasizing that if republicans take control of Washington, then we can pretty much kiss earth goodbye, since these monsters have plans ready to undo the progress we have made so far on renewal energy and energy efficiency and to turn government into a servant of the fossil fuel industry.
![Fig. 6. Anomalies of upper 2000 m OHC from (a) 2003 to 2012 and (b) 2013 to 2022,
relative to a 1981–2010 baseline but with the global mean value removed for each map [data
updated from Cheng et al. (2017a)].](https://images.dailykos.com/images/1281440/large/Screenshot2024-03-13at6.05.57PM.png?1710368488 "Fig. 6. Anomalies of upper 2000 m OHC from (a) 2003 to 2012 and (b) 2013 to 2022,
relative to a 1981–2010 baseline but with the global mean value removed for each map [data
updated from Cheng et al. (2017a)].")
