Who wins will decide the fate of the human race.
The other night, I was watching Speaker Pelosi defend her stance on when and how to begin impeachment proceedings against Squatter-in-Chief Trump. Then, it struck me that I had seen this strategy once before. I pulled out a few books like “The 15 Most Decisive Battles in History” and there it was; Alexander the Great at Gaugamela against Darius the III. It appears that great minds have a tendency when faced with similar problems to create similar solutions. While Speaker Pelosi is not leading a military army, she is facing a political battle similar to the situation in her confrontation with Donald Trump. I will explain.
First the Background:
The battle of Gaugamela was the third and last great battle between Alexander and Darius III king of the Persian Empire. Most of you know the name even if you don’t know much about Alexander the Great and I am not going to tell you his life story. You can look it up if you are interested. The battle occurred in what is now northern Iraq close to Irbil. The date was (as it is now called) 1 October 331 BCE.
A good narrative of how the battle came to be but not the battle itself is https://www.livius.org/articles/battle/gaugamela-331-bce/.
A good narrative with two good maps of the battle is found here, https://www.ancient.eu/Battle_of_Gaugamela/ .
Another good narrative but no maps is: https://www.historynet.com/battle-of-gaugamela-alexander-versus-darius.htm .
And if you don’t like reading the book but like watching the movie, try this; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY3z3yh7a24 .
For most of you, it would be advisable to jump to the final analysis. Because in between here and the final analysis is a bunch of boring stuff especially if you don’t like reading the book.
The Comparison
Leaders:
Why do I say that Nancy Pelosi is channeling Alexander? Because the situation between Alexander and Darius III is very similar to Pelosi versus Trump with Trump playing the part of Darius. Darius’ army was over twice the size of Alexander’s, which is about the same as the problem for Pelosi. Pelosi is facing the powers of the Presidency and the Senate without the power of the filibuster rule. This makes the opposition twice as strong as Pelosi’s forces, namely the US House and a minority in the US Senate. But Darius was not a serious military commander and definitely not on par with Alexander. Pelosi is a political warrior/general without par on the American political scene, especially compared to Donald Trump.
The Armies:
Darius’s army was about 100,000 depending on who is telling the tale. It was a hodge-podge of units from all over the eastern half of the Persian Empire. They were thrown together for the single purpose of stopping Alexander from destroying the Persian Empire. Some of the units were very capable (the cavalry) and some were barely more organized than an untrained and ill-equipped mob. The main threat was the cavalry, which was used to attack the enemy on their flanks and rear. The infantry’s job was to protect Darius who was behind the center.
Alexander’s army was about 50,000 of veterans and men who had fought many battles with him from Macedonia and across western Persia, Palestine, and Egypt. They trusted him because he had won every battle and they expected to win this one. The Macedonian army was superior to the Persians in weapons, training, cohesion, discipline, and leadership.
Trump’s army of political supporters is similar to Darius’s military army. The GOP in the US House are a badly beaten lot from the 2018 election. They have an inexperienced leader in Kevin McCarthy who can’t control his caucus or direct them. Over in the US Senate, the GOP have a very experienced and crafty old political warrior self identified as the Grim Heaper, Mitch (Moscow) McConnell. Taken together, the political army of Trump could be dangerous if well led.
Deployment of the Armies:
Darius’s battle strategy was to disrupt the Macedonian center with scythe chariots and massed infantry while the main blow would come on the flanks. Both flanks had large contingents of cavalry to turn the Macedonian flanks and attack into their rear. Since the Persian army was twice the size of the Macedonian army, it should work and result in the total destruction of the Macedonian army and the death of Alexander.
Alexander’s battle strategy was to hold the center with his massive heavy phalanxes backed up with light infantry and archers. The left flank under Parmenio had a force of cavalry and light infantry that were positioned to bend back to prevent a flanking attack by the Persian cavalry. The right flank also consisted of cavalry and light infantry and bended back to stop flanking attacks. But tucked in between the phalanxes of the center and the right flank was Alexander and his main heavy cavalry, The Companions. This was the force that would decide the outcome of the battle. This force must be held in check until the right moment. The right moment was when the mob of infantry of Darius’s center was no longer protected by the Persian cavalry.
Trump’s battle strategy to prevent his removal from the Presidency is to use the GOP majority in the US Senate to prevent his conviction on the articles of impeachment presented by the US House. If he survives conviction of impeachment, he must survive the 2020 election, or he is going to jail.
If you divide up Trump’s political forces similarly to Darius’s army, you have in the center the right wing and alt right media spewing out confusion and obfuscation by lies and fake news. The purpose of this spewing is to keep Republicans cowed into unquestioning loyalty to Trump. Its other use is to distract the Democrats from acting in a resolute and bold attack on Trump. It is amazing how well it works but it is brittle. If the slightest crack appears in Trump’s ability to stay in office, they will crumble into dust. Trump’s right flank is his strongest force, namely the US Senate under the command of Mitch (Moscow) McConnell. McConnell can deliver a solid but not aggressive enough attack. McConnell is more defensive than aggressive. On the left flank is McCarthy with a bunch of very noisy but ineffective Republicans. Their effectiveness comes from the divisions within their ranks; Establishment, Tea Party, and Alt Right. And they are individually incompetent in anything except demagoguery and lies.
Pelosi’s battle strategy is to either convict Trump on impeachment articles or defeat him in the general election in 2020. Then he can be arrested, tried, found guilty of multiple charges and spend the rest of his natural life in jail. And that is assuming that Putin does not get to him first.
If you divide up Pelosi’s political forces similarly to Alexander’s army, you have the Report of the Special Council by Robert Mueller in the center in the same role as the Macedonian phalanxes. The Report is almost unassailable as proven by the total lack of success or even attempts by the House GOP to attack it or Robert Mueller. However, phalanxes are by their very nature slow, ponderous, and not very maneuverable, just like the Report. When engaged, phalanxes are deadly machines of destruction, just as the Report will be.
On the left flank is Sen. Chuck Schumer with his minority caucus of Democrats. Schumer has full control of his caucus. Schumer plays the role of Parmenio, namely, to prevent McConnell from outflanking the Mueller Report/phalanxes. Schumer and his caucus are to hold off McConnell’s caucus until Pelosi makes her move. Then Schumer is to go on the offensive and begin to turn 20 Republicans against Trump and convict him of high crimes and misdemeanors.
On the right flank is Speaker Pelosi and her majority Democratic caucus. The right flank is composed of two components, the committee chairpersons who oversee investigating Trump’s high crimes and misdemeanors, which form the basis of the Articles of Impeachment. The other component, which is composed of the rest of the committee chairpersons has the job to pass legislation to prepare for the departure of Trump and his henchmen. At first, Speaker Pelosi has led her committee chairs in a move that appears to be away from impeachment. This move will consist of one after another investigations into every aspect of Trump’s activities, both political and business. This will require hundreds of witnesses, subpoenas, and court enforcement of the subpoenas.
This will put tremendous pressure on Trump on the political and legal fronts. He will lose control on his other fronts; race war on immigration, tariff wars with China and our allies, budget deficits and exploding debt, and his teetering on the brink of war with Iran. (There are more but these are the ones I am following.) But the biggest one is the economy, where Trump is facing the threat of recession brought on by his mismanagement of all of the above. These crises will cost Trump support of his base and therefore the support of Republicans in the Senate.
When Trump’s approval rating drops below 30% or he makes a critical mistake that even the GOP can’t ignore, Speaker Pelosi will strike with her Companions; Chair Nadler, Chair Cummings, Chair Neal, Chair Waters, and Chair Schiff. They will strike with a full set of Articles of Impeachment. In order to drive Trump’s ratings below 30%, many things must happen. The most important are as follows:
- A recession needs to start by Q4 of 2019, declared in Q2 2020 so the electorate will know that it is happening.
- The cause of the recession will be the failure of the trade war with China and our allies. Part of the failure will be the retaliations by China directed at the US consumer. The other part will be the tariff tax on the US consumer imposed by Trump on Chinese goods. (It will take months if not years for those consumer goods to be sourced from anywhere else.) Since the US consumer is the only thing left that is holding up the economy and the stock market, an attack on the US consumer by the Chinese and Trump’s tariffs would collapse the support of the US economy by the US consumer.
- Another trigger for the recession will be the price of gasoline. At this moment, Trump’s trade wars are causing worries about a global recession, which leads to a global drop in demand for oil; and therefore, this worry is suppressing the price of oil and gasoline and diesel. If war with Iran breaks out, the demand for oil will climb which will lead to an increase in price for gasoline and diesel. This event would cause severe hardship on Trump supporters. Also, Big Oil and Natural Gas has been whispering in Trump’s ear that they can produce an ever increasing and cheap oil and gas for as long as he protects them. But they are lying. See the detailed explanation at the end of this article.
- As the court action by the committee chairs reveals the corruption, illegalities, fraud, perjuries, etc. of Trump, his family, his various organizations, and associates; GOP members of the Senate will have a much harder time defending Trump and not convicting him of high crimes and misdemeanors. Public pressure must be exerted on those wavering senators in their home states.
- Another pressure point on GOP senators is Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior. Is his behavior becoming a threat to national security? Remember, the President has absolute control of the nuclear ‘football’. This power was given to the President of the US by the US Congress when we were under the threat of nuclear first strike capability of the Soviet Union. That power must be revoked immediately by Congress. If Trump attempts to veto the bill, his veto must be overridden and his actions should be included in the Articles of Impeachment.
Another question for GOP senators to answer; Has Trump neutered the 25th Amendment by having so many positions in his cabinet held by acting secretaries. Does an acting secretary have a vote to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the President? Remember the 25th Amendment was to remove a President in cases of incapacity including mental incapacity. By firing department secretaries and replacing them with acting Secretaries, has Trump voided the 25th Amendment? This situation should also be included in the Articles of Impeachment.
Final Analysis:
Timing. Timing is everything in politics and war. Too soon and everything is out of place or not ready. Too late and everything is over or gone. At Gaugamela, Alexander could not just launch his Companions at an intact and in place Persian cavalry and chariots. In that case, Alexander and his Companions would have been locked in battle with the cavalry and chariots with the infantry right behind them which would attack and destroy him and the Companions. This would result in the total destruction of the Macedonian army. But if he waited too long, the Persian cavalry would be in position to attack his army in the flanks and rear. BTW, Greek phalanxes are almost defenseless when attacked from the rear.
Pelosi faces the same two timing problems. If the decision to initiate the impeachment inquiry too soon, she will not have public support or even support in her own caucus. If too late, the inquiry will not be completed in time before the primary voting begins. If she allows a vote on Articles of Impeachment too soon, she would face a Senate with an intact majority of GOP senators led by Mitch (Moscow) McConnell. Defeat in the Senate will expose the Democratic Nominee to defeat by a vindicated Trump. If she waits too long, the Presidential election cycle will be in the primary voting phase and no one will pay attention.
When the decision is made to attack, it must be carried out in a fast and furious manner. Alexander knew this from previous battles with the Persians. He knew he could not give the Persian infantry time to get organized and face his attack. And the attack must be carried out in a very high energy and violent manner to keep the Persian infantry off balanced and incapable of an effective defense. Historically, when Darius saw his infantry crumpling in the face of Alexander’s fast approach and violent attack, Darius turned and ran from the battlefield. He left his army to be defeated in detail. Of special note, Alexander decided not to pursue Darius (who was later killed by one of his own generals), but instead turned back to save his army especially his left flank which was on the verge of defeat.
Pelosi’s attack must be carried out in a similar manner; fast and furious. Once the decision is made to start the impeachment inquiry, it must be done in a fast and furious manner. One idea I heard was to cancel all US House recesses and holidays until the Articles of Impeachment are done and ready for a vote. The furious side must be a full court press in the media by all Democrats in office and not in office. This needs to be in the public’s face 24x7x366. Protest marches and rallies must be every weekend and holiday and in every state. Pressure must be applied to the GOP in the Senate by putting into play every Senate seat that is up for election next year and in 2022. We must make the GOP Senators see that Trump will drag down the GOP in Congress for a generation. We must act and do like we are committed to win or die. If we fail to win, a lot of people are going to die before 20 Jan 2025.
PS: I was putting the last touches on this diary when I looked over at the TV and saw Speaker Pelosi setting into motion the impeachment inquiry. The time for battle is now. We must strike fast and with as much fury that we can muster. We are not going to get a second chance.
The Oil and Natural Gas Industry Failure:
What most Democrats don’t know or don’t understand what it means is that Big Oil and Big NG have lied about how soon they won’t be able to supply the energy our civilization needs to function. They have said the world has enough oil for the rest of the century and we can wait until 2050 to worry about it. They have spent hundreds of millions of dollars to convince everyone that Peak Oil is a hoax. It is not! It has been delayed. The US Energy Dept has been telling the truth in their Annual Energy Outlook report about Peak Oil, at least until the 2018 report. Also, read the early release reports. These early reports give a more accurate picture of situation, but the oil industry complains and have the most damning sections removed in the final report. The 2013 and 2014 early reports are the most interesting.
Global Peak Oil has been delayed because of two technical events (this is a component of the Peak Oil theory): horizontal drilling/fracking of shale and improvements in refining that allows heavy oil (Mexico), very heavy oil (Venezuela), and tar sands (Canada) to be cracked into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc. The contribution to this process comes from fracking, condensate/natural gas liquids. Condensate has the hydrogen atoms needed to upgrade those oils and bitumen during the cracking process to produce fossil fuels. The problem is these processes consume energy, lots of energy. And this is where the killer equation comes in: EROEI Ratio = 1. This means in English; energy returned on energy invested equals one. That ratio used to be 100:1 back in the 1930s. In 1970s, it dropped to 15:1. Now it is about 2.5:1. When it hits 1:1, you stop using that process for energy. In this case, oil will stop being used as a source of energy. At the current rate of decline, oil will not be used as a source of energy somewhere between 2025 and 2030. There is a reason for General Motors to convert all of their car line to electric by 2025. That is why all auto manufacturers are converting to electric as fast as they can.
