THIS is the Russian conspiracy

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Monday March 06, 2017 · 10:31 AM PST

2017/03/06 · 10:31

"No puppet! No puppet! You're the puppet!"

In light of all the recent and somewhat astonishing developments regarding the investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, I thought it would be useful to remind everyone why this matters so much, and what the investigators will be looking at. Below is a diary I compiled and published back in March, when it seemed like nothing was happening at all:

This is a timeline of critical events relevant to the ongoing scandal regarding ties between the Trump Administration and Russia, with sources. The post is long but details, context and especially timing are important. Key dates and players are listed in bold. If anyone has any any additional details you think I should include, please message me and I will provide an update. Feel free to share this timeline. Also, read this analysis: NewYorker

BACKGROUND: SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA

2/22/14 Ukraine’s parliament votes to oust Viktor Yanukovych, the pro-Russian president of Ukraine. WaPo Yanukovych was driven from power as a result of protests in Kiev. AP Yanukovych had been elected with the help of American campaign consultant Paul Manafort, who worked for him from 2006 until 2012. WaPo

3/17/14 Russia announces the annexation of Crimea from the Ukraine. CNN

3/20/14 The U.S. announces sanctions against Russia. NYT

4/7/14 Senator Mitch McConnell urges the Obama administration to arm Ukraine to defend against Russian aggression. Examiner Later that month, 19 Republican senators sponsor a bill to deliver arms to Ukraine. DailyBeast

9/12/14 The U.S. intensifies sanctions against Russia, including specific sanctions against Gazprom and Rosneft, its two largest oil and gas companies. Reuters

12/16/14 The sanctions prompt a severe financial crisis in Russia and a collapse in the value of the ruble. Bloomberg This caused a recession that continued through the end of 2016. WorldBank

REPUBLICANS PRESS PRESIDENT OBAMA TO ARM UKRAINE

2/11/15 Seventeen Republican Senators, including Jeff Sessions, co-sponsor a bill to provide Ukraine with lethal military aid, in addition to the sanctions already imposed. Senate

3/26/15 Jeff Sessions gives an interview warning about Russian aggression and voicing his support for Ukraine. RCP

6/11/15 The Senate passes a bill requiring the Obama administration “to arm Ukraine with antiarmor systems, mortars, grenade launchers and ammunition to aid in its fight against Russian-backed separatists.” NYT

6/16/15 Donald Trump announces his candidacy for president. ABC

7/?/15 A group associated with the Russian FSB penetrates DNC servers. NYT

11/26/15 President Obama signs the National Defense Authorization Act. WH Though not widely reported, the bill includes $3OOM in lethal aid for Ukraine. UNIAN The Heritage Foundation considered this “an important step in pushing the Obama Administration to stand with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.” HERITAGE

12/10/15 Retired general Michael Flynn attends a dinner in Moscow celebrating the 10th anniversary of Russia Today, a state-owned English language news channel. Politico Flynn was photographed seated next to Vladimir Putin at dinner: Tribune Flynn was paid $40,000 for his appearance. DailyNews

TRUMP ASSEMBLES HIS FOREIGN POLICY TEAM

2/26/16 Michael Flynn is identified as a national security adviser to Donald Trump. Reuters

3/3/16 Donald Trump announces that Jeff Sessions will lead his national
security advisory committee. NYT

3/17/16 At an event hosted by the American Council for Capital Formation, Jeff Sessions abandons his hawkish stance on Russia, saying: “I think an argument can be made there is no reason for the U.S. and Russia to be at this loggerheads. Somehow, someway we ought to be able to break that logjam.” WaPo

3/21/16 Donald Trump gives an interview to the Washington Post in which he questions the need for NATO and names his five foreign policy advisers, including J.D. Gordon and, as Trump describes him, “Carter Page PhD.” WaPo A transcript of the interview is here: WaPo Page was a relatively unknown investment banker with no real foreign policy experience. Politico However, as reported at the time, Page did have deep connections to Gazprom. Bloomberg The previous year Page had written a blog post criticizing sanctions against Russia over “the so-called annexation of Crimea” and claiming that the sanctions were more unjust than the police shootings which were prompting protests in America. GPJ How and why Page was selected by the Trump campaign is unknown. Reuters

3/24/16 Michael Flynn gives an interview to Russia Today calling for closer cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. RT

3/28/16 Paul Manafort joins the Trump campaign as convention manager. NYT

3/?/16 A group associated with Russian military intelligence hacks the DNC. NYT

5/19/16 Paul Manafort becomes the Trump campaign chairman. WaPo

THE CRUX OF THE MATTER

6/14/16 The DNC hack is reported by the Washington Post. WaPo

6/20/16 The first report of the Steele Dossier is written. It was periodically updated through 12/13/16 and you can read the complete report here: Steele It alleges that the Trump campaign has been compromised by Russian intelligence. The report and its periodic updates were provided to the FBI. MotherJones Among other things, the Steele Dossier identified Russian intelligence as the source of the DNC hack and alleged that Paul Manafort was coordinating with the Russians using Carter Page as an intermediary. It specifically alleged that the Trump campaign had agreed to “sideline Russian intervention in Ukraine as a campaign issue and to raise US/Nato defence commitments in the Baltics and Eastern Europe to defect attention away from Ukraine.” It also alleged that Trump associates had been offered “the brokerage of up to a 19 percent (privatized) stake in Rosneft” if sanctions against Russia were lifted.

7/7/16 Carter Page gives a speech in Moscow praising Russia’s foreign policy approach and criticizing the U.S. and it allies for “their often hypocritical focus on ideas such as democratization, inequality, corruption and regime change.” Bloomberg You can watch the speech here: YouTube the speech was given the same day that Secretary of State John Kerry appeared in Kiev to criticize the Russian annexation of Crimea. Telegraph

7/12/16 In their only change to the RNC platform, the Trump campaign forces the deletion of a provision calling on the US to arm Ukraine, a policy the Republicans had been pushing for since 2014. WaPo

7/18/16 Jeff Sessions meets with the Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak at the RNC. VOX So do Carter Page and J.D. Gordon. USA

7/20/16 In an interview with the NYT, Donald Trump challenges the U.S. commitment to defend its NATO allies against an attack. NYT

7/21/16 Michael Flynn gives an interview to the state-owned Sputnik News criticizing U.S. policy toward Russia and calling for the development of “personal relationships” between the countries. Sputnik

7/22/16 Wikileaks releases the first batch of hacked DNC emails. WaPo

7/25/16 The FBI announces that it is investigating the DNC hack. ABC

7/27/16 At a press conference, Donald Trump says in regard to the DNC hack: “Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing.” CNBC

DENIALS BEGIN

7/31/16 Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort expressly denies that the Trump campaign had any role in changing the language of the Republican Party's platform on Ukraine. NBC Donald Trump gives an interview that same day suggesting that the U.S. should accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Fortune Jeff Sessions also gives an interview that same day saying: “This whole problem with Russia is really disastrous for America, for Russia and for the world. Donald Trump is right.” WaPo

8/14/16 Paul Manafort is alleged to have received $12.7 in cash payments from the pro-Russian government of the former president of Ukraine. NYT

8/20/16 Paul Manafort resigns as Trump campaign manager. CNN

8/21/16 Trump adviser Roger Stone predicts the release by Wikileaks of Clinton campaign chair John Podesta’s hacked emails. Twitter Stone later admits that he was “briefed in advance” about Wikileaks’ publication of hacked emails. Guardian

9/5/16 President Obama meets with Putin at the G20 summit in China and warns him of consequences for Russian hacking. NYT

9/7/16 At a joint campaign forum devoted to national security issues, Donald Trump praises Putin and says: “I think I would have a very, very good relationship with Putin. And I think I would have a very, very good relationship with Russia.” NBC

9/8/16 Jeff Sessions meets with the Russian ambassador again. NYT That same day Donald Trump gives an interview to Russia Today denying that Russia is trying to influence the election, saying: “It’s probably unlikely. Maybe the Democrats are putting that out, who knows?” RT The Trump campaign later claimed that he was unaware the interview would air on RT. HuffPo

9/23/16 Reports emerge that Carter Page is being investigated by the FBI. Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller said Page “has no role” with the campaign, adding: “We are not aware of any of his activities, past or present.” Miller did not respond when asked why Trump had previously described Page as one of his advisers. Yahoo Kellyanne Conway also denies that Page is acting on behalf of the campaign. CNN

9/26/16 Carter Page announces a “leave of absence” from the Trump campaign. WaPo

10/7/16 Wikileaks releases hacked emails from John Podesta one hour after the release of Donald Trump’s infamous Access Hollywood tape. Politifact

THE TRANSITION TO POWER

11/17/16 Michael Flynn is offered the job of National Security Adviser. WaPo

12/7/16 Russia closes the sale of a 19.5% interest in Rosneft for $11B. Bloomberg The sale was financed by a series of “non-recourse” loans from Russian lenders and the identity of the ultimate purchasers is unknown. Reuters The purchase was directed through a series of offshore corporations in the Cayman Islands where ownership is kept secret by law. CaymanCompass

12/10/16 Russia and OPEC make an agreement to reduce oil production in order to increase oil prices. NYT

12/?/16 Jared Kushner and Michael Flynn meet with the Russian Ambassador at Trump Tower in New York. UPI

12/20/16 A leaked memo describing the incoming Trump administration’s top defense priorities does not include Russia among them. FP

12/26/16 Oleg Erovinkin, the reputed source for the Steele Dossier, is found dead in the back of his car. KC Star He is one of at least 6 Russian officials found dead since November. Independent

12/29/16 President Obama announces new sanctions against Russia for its conduct during the election and expels 35 Russian diplomats from the US. NYT That same day, Michael Flynn discussed the new sanctions with the Russian Ambassador during five telephone calls. Telegraph

12/30/16 Putin announces that he will not retaliate against the US for the new sanctions and expulsions. CNBC Donald Trump tweets: “Great move on delay (by V. Putin). I always knew he was very smart!” WaPo

1/6/17 The CIA and Director of National Intelligence release a joint report concluding that the Russian government attempted to influence the 2016 election through covert activity. The declassified version of the report can be read here: DNI

1/10/17 The Steele Dossier is published by Buzzfeed. DocumentCloud During his senate confirmation hearing that same day, Jeff Sessions denies any contact with Russians during the campaign. WaPo

1/12/17 The Washington Post reports that Michael Flynn discussed sanctions with the Russian ambassador. WaPo

THE UNRAVELLING BEGINS

1/26/17 Acting Attorney General Sally Yates informs the White House counsel that Flynn lied to the FBI about the nature of his calls with the Russian Ambassador and is vulnerable to blackmail. USA

2/8/17 Michael Flynn denies discussing sanctions with the Russian ambassador in an interview with the Washington Post. WaPo This is one of at least 20 denials of contact with Russians issued by the Trump campaign. USA

2/13/17 Michael Flynn resigns as national security adviser. WaPo A week before his resignation, Donald Trump’s personal lawyer Michael Cohen had delivered to him a secret plan to lift sanctions against Russia. NYT

2/16/17 At a press conference, President Trump says “nobody I know of talked to Russia” during his campaign. Politifact

2/23/17 Reports emerge that Paul Manafort was the subject of blackmail attempts during his time as Trump campaign manager. Politico

3/3/17 Jeff Sessions recuses himself from any investigation of Russian ties to the Trump campaign. CNN

3/3/17 JD Gordon admits that he directed the change to the RNC platform on Ukraine, after previously having denied involvement. BusinessInsider

Gaius

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Friday February 14, 2014 · 11:33 AM PST

2014/02/14 · 11:33

Discouraged by their electoral defeats, frustrated by the failure of their efforts to shut down the federal government, and fueled by increasingly incendiary commentary by right-wing pundits and politicians, the more extreme elements of the Tea Party constituency have begun to openly advocate rebellion or worse, assassination. This is an important and dangerous development that deserves far more attention than it has received. While there have been many internet cranks dreaming of civil war, secession or military coups ever since the election of President Obama in 2008, those cranks are beginning to find a larger audience, and they are now being subtly encouraged in their fury by the conservative media.

To appreciate this fact, you have to venture beyond the comparative sanity of internet sites such as RedStates, which is currently occupied by the internal struggles of the Republican Party, or even FreeRepublic, whose elderly denizens seem resigned to the collapse of the America That Never Was, rousing themselves only occasionally to bemoan the latest victory for gay rights. No, to understand what i am talking about you have to go to WND.com, the proud home of Christian fascism in America, which is far more popular than any of you may think (slightly more popular, in fact, than Daily Kos). The discussions there are not amusing and they do not provide the satisfaction of schadenfreude that many people here enjoy when perusing conservative sites. Instead they are frighteningly reminiscent of Falangist propaganda from the Spanish Civil War - authoritarian, anti-democratic, culturally repressive, thuggish, and openly rebellious. Follow me below the fold for details.

Gaius

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Thursday October 10, 2013 · 8:18 AM PDT

2013/10/10 · 08:18

And make no mistake about it, they do hate America, despite their flag pins, tri-cornered hats and Orwellian declarations of patriotism. What they love is a fiction, the "Real America" of wistful memory and ardent longing, a community of people who believe, behave and yes - look - just like themselves. What they hate is the reality of America, an enormous, complex place filled with the most diverse population in the history of the world, an America in which gay marriage is now legal, in which women are happily exercising the freedom to both celebrate and control their own sexuality, in which one out of eight citizens is an immigrant, and in which millions more undocumented workers (many of them speaking Spanish) perform the menial jobs that Americans no longer want to do. They hate an America in which the small towns and rural areas where they are primarily concentrated are depopulating, in which evangelical Christianity is shrinking in size and influence, and in which globalization has destroyed the economic security they once took for granted. Most of all, they hate the America that has twice elected a black man to be President.

In short they believe that their way of life is under attack, that they have lost control of the culture, the country and the future, and in large part they are correct. They have no plan to address those concerns except denial and resistance, and one could almost feel sympathy for them except for the fact that their representatives in Congress are now engaged in a desperate power struggle that threatens to destroy the actual country in which we live in a misguided effort to preserve the "Real America" of their fantasies.

Many of the these observations are intuitive, but they have also been documented in a focus group study by the Democracy Corps entitled "Inside the GOP".

Gaius

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Sunday November 20, 2011 · 10:22 AM PST

2011/11/20 · 10:22

Dear President Obama,

The time has come for you to take a stand regarding the increasingly brutal and repressive tactics being used to suppress the Occupy protests throughout the country. I assume that you have received briefings regarding these incidents, in which militarized police forces in various cities have clubbed, beaten and pepper-sprayed peaceful protestors, used bulldozers to clear their camps and, most disturbingly of all, denied access to and even arrested reporters attempting to cover the events. Perhaps you have even seen some of the many images of these abuses available on the internet. If not, let me suggest that you watch the now infamous video from the UC-Davis protest in which a police officer cruelly and arbitrarily assaults a group of college students doing nothing more than sitting on the ground. Sir, this is not what the public was hoping for when you were elected. This is not the America people imagined when they worked for your election, donated to your campaign or gathered on that cold, crisp morning to witness your inauguration. I know because I did all of those things, and I did them eagerly, even joyously. But I did not do those things because I wanted a country that was even more intolerant of dissent than it had been under the Bush Administration, or one just as beholden to the narrow interests of Wall Street. And sir, I do not know that I will - that I can - do any of those things again in 2012 as long as this brutality continues.

Gaius

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Tuesday November 15, 2011 · 6:17 AM PST

2011/11/15 · 06:17

Last night the NYPD evicted the Occupy Wall Street protestors from Zucotti Park in an ostensible effort to "clean" the park. While that is an outrage, in and of itself, the way in which the raid was conducted was even worse. A midnight raid, carried out by heavily armed police accompanied by bulldozers and helicopters, was launched in secrecy, with the press deliberately excluded from the area and local residents locked in their own homes. Dozens of people were beaten, pepper-sprayed and arrested. The library of more than 5,000 books that the protestors had carefully assembled was thrown into a trash heap along with all of their tents and other possessions. Any pretense that we still live in a free society was thus swept away in the name of public sanitation. Whatever you think of the protestors themselves, or their goals, or even their methods, if you believe in the freedom we so proudly proclaim in this country, you should be outraged too. Freedom is frequently inconvenient, often uncomfortable and yes, occasionally unsanitary. Such is the price that must sometimes be paid to protect the rights we claim to cherish.

Gaius

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Thursday November 10, 2011 · 7:49 AM PST

2011/11/10 · 07:49

My return from a brief visit to OWS last week prompted a great deal of discussion with, and a fair amount of teasing from, my friends and colleagues. All of them were curious, several were sympathetic, and a few - as you might expect - were skeptical. Surprisingly, though, no one was openly hostile. Both the merely curious and the skeptics all wanted to know: "What do they want?" In response, I pointed out that my visit was brief and casual, so I couldn't really presume to answer the question, and that the protestors themselves did not yet seem to share many specific goals beyond drawing attention to the failures of the existing economic system. I was thinking specifically of two of the people I met there, one a self-described Marxist, the other an energetic libertarian, who together represented the polar extremes of political thought and who presumably wouldn't agree about much of anything beyond their shared outrage at the inequities of the status quo. The more I considered this, though, the more I realized that was actually the answer my friends were looking for. What is OWS about? It is about demanding attention to the common problems that the vast majority of Americans face today, problems of debt, decline and economic insecurity, problems that are likely to only grow worse in the future, problems which the media and politicians have all but ignored, problems which everyone from a Marxist to a libertarian can agree need to be addressed, even if they may not agree on the ultimate solutions. And that, I argued, is an invaluable function, because before you can even begin to develop a cure, you have to make sure you have diagnosed the right disease, and at least the symptoms of our current societal ills seem beyond dispute. Here are the ones I think we all ought to be able to recognize, whatever our political persuasion, and each of them lie at the heart of OWS.

Gaius

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Thursday October 27, 2011 · 12:16 PM PDT

2011/10/27 · 12:16

That's the percentage of the American public which supports higher taxes on people with incomes of $1 million or more. That is also the percentage of millionaires who support the same tax on themselves according to a new poll. http://www.theatlanticwire.com/...

That isn't a random coincidence. As I tried to point out in my last post, the "1%" that everyone is complaining about is just as politically diverse as any other. It is not a small group of plutocrats all conspiring together. The reality is that the political divide in America is not an economic one, but a cultural one. The real question is, or ought to be: Who is that other 32%?

Gaius

Community

Friday October 21, 2011 · 12:48 PM PDT

2011/10/21 · 12:48

The impetus behind the Occupy Wall Street movement - a vague sense that the rich are getting ever richer while everyone else suffers - was confirmed by a recent report from the Social Security Administration showing that while total employment and average wages remained stagnant, the number of people earning $1 million or more grew by 18% from 2009 to 2010. Those figures give real substance to the "We are the 99%" slogan, yet Republicans continue to insist, despite all evidence to the contrary, that if anything those "job creators" deserve an even greater share of our national income. The Tea Party, meanwhile, has launched its own "53%" movement, inexplicably rallying the working class to the defense of the wealthy. The one group rarely heard from in this rancorous debate is the 1%, whose incomes and taxes are its focus. I am one of them, and here is my perspective, which may surprise you.

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