We all know what the election result will be in several days, but I think a lot of us are too nervous and can’t wait.
I tried to look up the early vote statistics to see exactly what was going on, since there’ve been so many conflicting reports. Some people say Clinton’s doing well in one state, some people say Trump’s doing well in the same state. The news reports give us generalized indications, but they never tell us the exact statistics.
I did some digging around — which turned out to take a lot longer than I originally wanted. Below is the data from what I can see. I got a lot of my data from the United States Election Project’s 2016 and 2012 spreadsheet. More 2016 data was taken from Heavy; more 2012 data was also taken from Politico.
The Tables Include Two Things
Racial Change — This indicates the percentage change as a share of the early voting electorate. For instance, if Hispanics were 30% of the early vote in 2012 and 35% of the early vote in 2016, I’d write +5% Hispanic.
It seems that a lot of the Hispanic racial data is not actually concrete data. It’s estimates from a progressive firm called Catalist. I don’t know anything about the firm, but sometimes supporters of a political party convince themselves that they’re doing better than they actually are. Hope that isn’t the case for the Hispanic data.
Party Registration — Some states show the party registration of early voters. I put the advantage that Democrats or Republican have. For instance, if 30% of early voters were registered Democrats and 35% of early voters were registered Republicans, I’d write 5% R.
Party registration, as we all know, is unreliable — especially in places like North Carolina. I think the most important thing is comparing 2016 to 2012, so I’ve included 2012 margins as well. For exact data you can look at the links above.
Let’s look at the swing states:
Arizona — Good for Republicans
|
Hispanic Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
About +6% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
6.4% R |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
7.4% R |
| Final Result 2012 |
9.0% R |
Overall it looks like Democrats are doing better than in 2012, but not by quite enough to win the state.
.
Colorado — Very Good for Democrats
|
Hispanic Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
About +0.5% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
0.4% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
1.8% R |
| Final Result 2012 |
5.4% D |
In 2012 Democrats actually lost the early vote, whereas they’re winning in 2016. Hispanic turn-out is up by much lower than other states, however.
.
Florida — Mixed to Good For Republicans
|
Black Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
-3.2% |
|
Hispanic Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
About +5% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
0.5% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
3.8% D |
| Final Result 2012 |
0.9% D |
Exact racial statistics were published by Steve Schale. I use a mix of those and the ones from the above links to give the above results.
On the surface early voting looks pretty bad for Democrats; the black vote is down, and their share of the early vote is down. I think there are several caveats that make things better:
Demographics — Although the black vote is down, the Hispanic and Other vote is up.
DINOs — Many Democrats were DINOs. I’ve heard that around 50,000 (or around 2% of the Democratic early voters in 2016) finally switched party registrations to Republican to vote for Trump. So if you subtract 2% from the Republicans and add 2% to the Democrats, you get +4.5% D...But this may be a case of wishful thinking or skewing the data, haha.
.
Georgia — Good For Republicans
|
Black Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
About -5% |
| Final Result 2012 |
7.8% R |
Bad news for Democrats — the black vote is way down.
.
Iowa — Good For Republicans
|
Hispanic Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
About +6% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
7.1% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
9.9% D |
| Final Result 2012 |
5.8% D |
Republicans have definitely improved versus 2012, by 2.8%. But Obama won by 5.8%. Is their 2.8% improvement enough to win the state?
.
Maine — Very Good For Democrats
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
14.5% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
10.8% D |
| Final Result 2012 |
15.3% D |
Trump has made noises about winning Maine, but the early vote doesn’t bear that out. Republicans are actually doing going much worse than four years ago.
.
Michigan — Couldn’t find data/no early voting.
.
Minnesota — Couldn’t find data/no early voting.
.
Nevada — Very Good For Democrats
|
Hispanic Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
+2.5% |
|
White Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
+0% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters
|
5.9% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
6.9% D |
| Final Result 2012 |
6.7% R |
| Note: Turn-out up in Las Vegas. |
|
Jon Ralston has analyzed the Nevada vote.
Democrats have lost a bit, but look pretty good to still win the state. Good turn-out in Las Vegas may mean that they’ll improve from 2012.
.
New Hampshire — Couldn’t find data/no early voting.
.
North Carolina — Good For Republicans
|
Black Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
-5.4% |
|
Other Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
+2.7% |
|
White Change From 2012
(As Percent of Electorate)
|
+2.6% |
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
9.8% D |
|
Early Vote 2012
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
16.1% D |
| Final Result 2012 |
2.0% R |
The New York Time’s Upshot reported that Democrats were winning big in the early vote. From the statistics, I just don’t see that. Black voting is down, and the Democratic advantage is way down from 2012.
DINOs — There are a lot of DINOs who switched to Republican in order to vote for Trump. So things be look better than they look.
.
Ohio — Good For Republicans
| Final Result 2012 |
3.0% D |
| Note: Turn-out down in Cleveland. |
|
Ohio doesn’t provide much data, but turn-out has been down in Cleveland.
.
Pennsylvania — Couldn’t find data/no early voting.
.
Texas
| Final Result 2012 |
15.8% R |
| Note: Turn-out up everywhere. |
|
Clinton probably won’t win Texas, but turn-out has been up everywhere.
.
Utah
|
Early Vote 2016
(Party Registration Advantage in Early Voters)
|
36% R |
| Final Result 2012 |
47.9% R |
Clinton’s talked about winning Utah, but early voting certainly provides a reminder that Utah is still a very Republican state indeed.
.
Virginia — Good For Democrats
Virginia doesn’t provide much data, but turn-out has been up in northern Virginia.
.
Wisconsin — Good For Democrats
Wisconsin doesn’t provide much data, but turn-out has been up in Madison.
.
Final Thoughts
This has been somewhat of a comforting exercise. Bottom line — Clinton doesn’t need to win all these states, or even a majority. She just needs the Kerry states, minus New Hampshire, plus Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. I won’t include New Mexico because Clinton still wins without it, in the above scenario.
In Colorado and Nevada the early voting looks extremely good for Clinton.
In Virginia it looks good too — and Clinton’s never been behind in a poll there.
In the other Kerry states (except for New Hampshire), Clinton’s never been behind in a poll.
The Senate is more worrisome though.
