Clinton Widens Lead Since Last Week's Tie In Latest Ipsos/Reuters Tracking Poll

Iseeurfuture

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Wednesday September 28, 2016 · 12:30 PM PDT

2016/09/28 · 12:30

Let the good times roll!!!!

talkingpointsmemo.com/...

Jobless Claims Fall By 8K To 355,000

Iseeurfuture

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Thursday November 08, 2012 · 6:23 AM PST

2012/11/08 · 06:23

More mud in the Republican's Faces. I haven't seen a Diary of this. Short but Sweet!

We're moving FORWARD indeed. Thank you PBO. :)

https://twitter.com/...

Presidential prediction 2012 – final by Sam Wang

Iseeurfuture

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Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 11:09 AM PST

2012/11/06 · 11:09

The following are final estimates, based on taking polling data over longer intervals than our usual 1-week rule. Instead, I found the period over which a state’s polling variance was minimized, as a means of identifying stability.

Sam Wang:

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 303 EV, Mitt Romney 235 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the EV histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a 22% chance of being exactly correct. The next-most-likely outcome is Obama 332, Romney 206 EV.
ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 305 EV, Romney 233 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.76%. This median is almost guaranteed to be off, since 305 EV is not a common combination. It is the midpoint of all possibilities, and reflects the overall shape of the distribution. The nominal 1-sigma band is Obama [293, 332] EV.

TWO-CANDIDATE POPULAR VOTE SHARE: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.

http://election.princeton.edu/
Very Encouraging! GOTV and back this thang up! :)

House 2012 prediction (Final) by Sam Wang with Poll

Iseeurfuture

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Monday November 05, 2012 · 11:07 AM PST

2012/11/05 · 11:07

Sam Wang:

Democrats and Republicans are tied in the generic Congressional ballot. But Republicans are unlikely to lose control of the House, to a significant extent because redistricting and incumbency give them a +2.5% advantage. A nongeneric, district-by-district look also favors maintained Republican control. Based on these two lines of evidence, Democrats appear likely to gain 2-22 seats, but their takeover probability is only 13-23%. This estimate does not take into account one unknown influence: in the last two weeks, President Obama has taken the lead in national surveys, moving up by about 1.5%. This raises the possibility of hidden House strength for Democrats in the form of Presidential coattails.

http://election.princeton.edu/...

At least we've tried. Still hoping for a surprise. We'll see. :)

Poll

203 votes Show Results

Will there be a surprise in the House due to Early Voting?

203 votes Vote Now!

Will there be a surprise in the House due to Early Voting?

Yes

56 votes

74 votes

Maybe

62 votes

Not Sure

11 votes

Just recieved this from my Sister via text.

Iseeurfuture

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 05, 2012 · 8:11 AM PST

2012/11/05 · 08:11

Short Diary but Self Explanatory.

WE ALL NEED TO BOYCOTT SHELL MOBILE FOR THIS SHIT!

RACISM IS ALIVE AND WELL

Sorry, for the lack of Info:
This Effigy was hanging at a Bay Meadows Shell Station in Jacksonville, FL.

Ok, I couldn't resist. Sam Wang Update!

Iseeurfuture

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Saturday November 03, 2012 · 5:25 AM PDT

2012/11/03 · 05:25

As of November 3, 8:03AM EDT:
Obama: 323
Romney: 215
Meta-margin: Obama +3.02%
RSS
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.1%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%

Sam Wang:

President Obama is peeling away. As you can see from the electoral vote (EV) estimator, he is the candidate with the momentum, not Romney. In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, he's made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1. And the indicators are still headed straight up.

http://election.princeton.edu/

Very DISAPPOINTED to wake up to this Ad in PA by the CEO of Home Depot.

Iseeurfuture

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Saturday November 03, 2012 · 5:18 AM PDT

2012/11/03 · 05:18

I was very DISAPPOINTED to wake up this morning to see an Ad in PA during the news cycle by CEO Frank Blake of Home Depot touting Mitt Romney's business acumen and why America needs him to rebuild it's infrastructure while, at the same time denigrating Barack Obama's performance as POTUS. He said that businesses don't want to hire because of his failed policies (BullShit). My disappointment is three fold:
1. Home Depot has been my favorite store to shop for home repairs.
2. The LIES that were told in the advertisement against PBO.
3. As for Home Depot, I think I'll find another Home Repair Store to shop after spending thousands of dollars contributing to a Right Wing Zealot who pays their employee's sub par wages.
I'm not surprised though that between now and election day we will see all kinds of attacks against our President. He gets credit for nothing. Too late to stage a boycott. HOPEFULLY We will shut these non-believers down on Tuesday :)

Frank Blake's Bio:

Chairman and CEO
Frank Blake is the chairman and CEO of The Home Depot. Prior to his appointment to this position in 2007, he served as vice chairman of the board of directors and executive vice president of the Company. He joined The Home Depot in 2002 as executive vice president, business development and corporate operations, and was responsible for real estate, store construction, credit services, strategic business development, growth initiatives, call centers and the Home Services business.

BARACK THE VOTE ON TUESDAY :)

Thanks, Guys for the rec. :)

Sam Wang's UPDATE

Iseeurfuture

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Friday November 02, 2012 · 12:19 PM PDT

2012/11/02 · 12:19

As of November 2, 3:00PM EDT:
Obama: 319
Romney: 219
Meta-margin: Obama +2.82%

It's Friday and 4 days before the election. The jobs numbers are out and are good in spite of the uptick in unemployment. The weekend is upon us and we're sure to see both candidates try and bring their messages home to voters. The Point of my diary is to say no matter what occurs between now and Tues outside of another Climate Disastor (Lord Forbid).

THE CAKE IS ALREADY BAKED!

GOTV, LET'S DO THIS!

Poll: Obama 52, Romney 46 In Michigan

Iseeurfuture

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Friday November 02, 2012 · 11:50 AM PDT

2012/11/02 · 11:50

President Obama's lead in Michigan continues
TPM:Kyle Leighton

President Obama has a 6-point lead in Michigan, according to new polling from Democraltic-leaning Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the League Of Conservation Voters, who has endorsed Obama. Obama gets 52 percent of likely voters to Republican candidate Mitt Romney's 46 percent.

I guess the Romney campaign will go down with a fight.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

They Call The Election A Horse Race; It Has Real Bettors, Too

Iseeurfuture

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Friday October 26, 2012 · 3:55 AM PDT

2012/10/26 · 03:55

I came across these 2 very interesting reads. More or less like Intrade but worth a look.

From John Ydstie:NPR

By this point in the campaign season, the presidential polls may have your head spinning. Romney's up 7 points in one, Obama's up 3 in another ... and on any given day, a dozen other polls are swirling, each offering a different take.
But there is a market out there that distills all those data down to one simple predictive number — and gives you a chance to bet on it. Sure, there's likely a bookie in your city who could give you odds on the presidential race and happily take your bet. But for most of the nation's history, would-be political bettors had another option: betting markets.

http://www.wbur.org/...

From the IEM:(Iowa Electronic Markets) By University Communication and Marketing

Mitt Romney has been making a comeback on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) in recent weeks, but Barack Obama is still a 2-to-1 favorite to win the popular vote in November.
A contract for Mitt Romney was selling for 34.5 cents on the IEM’s Winner Take All market Thursday morning, which means traders believe there is a 34.5 percent probability that he will win. That price is up substantially from the 18.6 cents he was trading at as recently as September 27, an 85 percent increase in price.

Obama, meanwhile, was selling for 66 cents Thursday, which means traders believe there is a 66 percent probability he will win the popular vote. As Romney’s price increased in recent weeks, Obama’s fell 19 percent from his high of 81.7 cents on Sept. 27.

Most of Romney’s recent gains came during a two-week period shortly before and after the first debate on Oct. 3. His price reached as high as 39.2 cents on Oct. 12 before settling back.

Meanwhile, on the Vote Share market, in which traders buy and sell contracts based on what percentage of the two party vote they think each candidate will receive, Obama was selling for 53.9 cents Thursday morning. That means traders believe Obama will receive 53.9 percent of the popular vote between the two candidates.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/...

Regardless what Polls are saying GOTV and make it COUNT.

Anatomy of a bounce

Iseeurfuture

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Sunday October 21, 2012 · 10:32 AM PDT

2012/10/21 · 10:32

I thought I would Introduce Dr. Sam Wang of Princeton Consortium's dissection of bounces in general and where things stand as of today. It is a good read for anyone interested in understanding the schemes of Polling. In the 2008 Presidential Election Dr. Wang was off by 1 electoral vote. See Here. http://election.princeton.edu/...
He bested Kos's favorite Nate Silver who got 50 out 51 states correct but was off by 18.5 EV's. He outperformed Electoral Vote.com as well.

Dr. Wang explains in Anatomy of a bounce:

In the wake of his improved debate performance, President Obama’s recovery is now apparent. It is most clear when viewed in terms of the Meta-Analysis of state polls. Over the last four days, the Popular Vote Meta-Margin – the amount of swing it would take to create an electoral near-tie – has moved by over 1.0%. Today, the President’s effective lead, using Electoral College mechanisms, is Obama +1.8%. A rapid move like this can continue for a few days as polls catch up with the nation’s mental state.
But why do national polls continue to look so close, and in about half of cases good for Mitt Romney? To answer that, let’s take a look back at the effects of all three debates so far.

Dr. Wang goes on to explain things with graphs that are well over my head but he breaks it all down in laymen terms. Graphs can be viewed here. http://election.princeton.edu/...

As per Gallup Polling, Dr Wang sees this as an UNATTRACTIVE trait in MEDIA Coverage.

Because the race is so close, individual polls will inevitably be all over the place. And news organizations love the outlier data points, like the Gallup poll showing Romney +6%. I find this to be a particularly unattractive trait in media coverage. It was what led me to start the poll meta-analysis in 2004.

Dr. Wang further delves into the debates and how each impacted both candidates.

The post-debate-1 correction was a nearly five-point swing. It was complete within one day. This means that the post-debate-day media meltdown could not have caused the swing – though it certainly helped cement perceptions.
What caused this crash? Considering the polarization of voters this year (only a small fraction are persuadable), it seems likely to be caused by a change in morale on both sides: hope among Romney’s supporters and despair among Obama supporters, and a consequent change in whether they meet the criteria for being a “likely voter.” Imagine that an Obama supporter was 60% likely to vote before Debate #1, and then 57% afterward – and vice versa for a Romney supporter. That could fully account for the change.

There could also be some fraction of voters whose minds were changed by suddenly-moderate-Mitt and stumbling-Barack.

Since that time, there’s been a reversal in the direction of change. On October 5, Romney had a narrow lead, about 1.0%. Today, President Obama is back in a razor-thin lead at the national level – about 0.5-1.0%.
But here is something interesting. National polls do not match the state polls – and it is state races that determine the outcome, via the Electoral College. In the Meta-Analysis that Andrew Ferguson and I report on this website, Obama has been ahead all along.

Daily Polls keep folks on edge when they really shouldn't. It doesn't mean that GOTV efforts should stop either. Because this race is viewed by the media as close EVERYONE should be more propelled and energized to see that President Barack Obama is re-elected for a second term. < By Me. :)

Pennsylvania Poll: Obama Up By 4

Iseeurfuture

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday October 16, 2012 · 4:49 AM PDT

2012/10/16 · 04:49

Released today @ 6:12 AM by Quinnipiac Poll

Mitt Romney is certainly gaining ground in PA even after pulling ads from the state. I doubt very SERIOUSLY though he wins PA. It will be interesting to see what other Pollsters come out with with regards to PA. Just my thoughts.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent, in a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania released Tuesday.

Romney has made a significant dent in the gap. In a Sept. 26 Quinnipiac poll, Obama commanded a 54 percent to 42 percent lead over Romney.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

The PollTracker average of Pennsylvania currently shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 49 percent to 44.9 percent.

Mitt Romney is certainly gaining ground in PA even after pulling ads from the state. I doubt very SERIOUSLY he wins PA. Just my thoughts

Courtesy by TPM. Story by David Taintor

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