Tuesday is the Washington state Primary election. While there are not a lot of major, high profile races on the ballot, the primary election is important in that it can be used as a crystal ball into the general election, given some past elections. For example, in the 2010 primary, the party totals (all people running as a Democrat added together + all people running as a Republican added together) have been within 4 percentage points of the general election results in all federal races except for WA-8. In 2008 all statewide primary races the party totals have been within 4 percentage points with the exception of Insurance Commissioner and barely state auditor.
So since the election is so close, I thought I would give my insights as a Washington citizen and voter, for whatever that is worth.
Statewide races:
Gov (Open D): The two nominees will without a doubt be Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna. The real question is the margins. Inslee has had a good, visible month on the air, while I have yet to see anything on the air from McKenna. He should finish first in the primary as McKenna faces another Republican, Shahram Hadian, who gathers some support from the Ron Paul folks and some pro-life activists. It would be reasonable to assume Hadian could get between 5%-10% of the primary vote.
Lt. Gov (Currently D): This is the only state office with the action being on the Republican side. Bill Finkbeiner is the Republican Party’s choice Vs longtime incumbent Brad Owen. Finkbeiner faces another Republican, Glenn Anderson, whom the state party leaders dislike with a passion because of his past disloyalty to the party. Finkbeiner has been running the most visible campaign of the two (three actually if you count Owen, who hasn’t faced a major races since the 1990’s), well, as visible as the race for Lt. Governor gets. I would expect a Owen Vs Finkbeiner race for November.
Sec. of State (Open R): The open seat race attracted many Democrats, state Sen. Jim Kastama, state Sen. Kathleen Drew, and former Seattle Mayor Greg Nickles. The Republican nominee will be Kim Wyman, who is the county auditor of Thurston (Olympia) County. It is hard to make any predictions on who will advance to November outside of Wyman, but Kastama has run the most visible effort in southwest Washington.
State Treasurer (Currently D): One of the most fought over races in 2008 will be the least eventful as incumbent Jim McIntire is running unopposed.
Auditor (Open D): Incumbent Brian Sonnatag's (A Democrat probably loved more by the Republicans than the Democrats) retirement has attracted a handful of Democrats, st. Sen Craig Pridemore (last seen running for WA-3 in 2010), and st. Reps. Troy Kelley and Mark Miloscia are running. The Republican nominee will be James Watkins (last seen running for WA-1 in 2010). Like the Sec. of State race, its hard to judge what Democrat will make it to Nov. But whoever does will be the heavy favorite in the general
AG: (Open R): Reagan Dunn (R) (son of late Rep. Jennifer Dunn) will face off against fellow King County Councilman Bob Ferguson (D) in November. First Dunn will have to advance (and he will) past Stephen Pidgeon (R), a lawyer running mostly because of Dunn's support of same sex marriage. Ferguson will come in first, with Dunn in second.
Public Lands (Currently D): incumbent Peter Goldmark will face off against a name people will remember from the 2010 Senate race, Clint Didier (R) who apparently was for real when he said he wasn't done with running for office. The Republicans held this seat for a few cycles until 2008 when Goldmark won a close race. Could be an interesting sleeper come November given the constant struggle between the environmentalists of the Sound region, the farmers of the east, and the natural resource dependent south, if Didier can come close to Goldmark’s totals.
Insurance Commissioner (Currently D): Yet again will be a boring race as incumbent Mike Kreidler (D) will face off against either Republican John Adams (again) or Scott Reily. No one cares about this race, and Kreidler could face either person, though I would venture to guess Adams comes out in the #2 slot.
Federal races
Senator (currently D): Maria Cantwell will face Republican st. Sen. Michael Baumgartner. But, keep an eye on Dr. Art Coday to do better than many expect him to as he has been running a pretty intense grassroots effort. But grassroots efforts can only go so far in a statewide primary.
WA-1 (Currently D open): I'm not going to get too much into the most interesting House race in WA this cycle as it is talked about ALOT on this website. Hard to judge what Democrat has the upper hand here, but either likely set up of Koster Vs Burner or Koster Vs DelBene should prove interesting come November.
WA-2 (Currently D): Incumbent Rick Larsen will face a unknown in a year he won't actually have to worry about being re-elected. Three Republicans are running for the #2 slot, I wouldn’t make any predictions because it would be nothing more than a blind guess.
WA-3 (Currently R): Incumbent Jaime Herrera Butler will face off against John Hauge (D), who’s only political experience comes from losing a state Senate race a couple cycles ago. They will advance to November over a unknown Independent Norma Jean Stevens who got 2% of the vote in 2010.
WA-4 (Currently R): Doc Hastings will have no troubles in coming in first in the most Republican (and Hispanic) seat in the state. He faces an unknown Republican and two unknown Democrats and is another case of just blind guessing as to who he will face.
WA-5 (Currently R): Cathy McMorris Rodgers will keep advancing in Republican ranks in the House as she will come in first and face off against Democrat Rich Cowan.
WA-6 (Currently open D): Republicans got some last minute hope with Weyerhauser Exc. Bill Driscoll jumping in the race and bringing with him some personal money to match Democrat nominee Derek Kilmer. Kilmer and Driscoll should have no problems coming in first and second in that order, but keep an eye out on Driscoll’s numbers.
WA-7 (Currently D): A handful of random Democrats and Republicans filed to run against the unbeatable incumbent Jim McDermott, and no one will pay attention. This is the most likely race where you could see a same party matchup for November, but I would expect a Republican to slip by to the fall in the end.
WA-8 (Currently R): Dave Reichert will finally be able to step back and take a breather, Going from facing trough elections since 2004 to facing a group of smallfry in a now Republican leaning seat. Based on bio alone would assume the Democrat will be Karen Porterfield.
WA-9 (Currently D): After facing his first Simi close race in years in 2010 incumbent Adam Smith will likely have an easier race against likely Republican nominee and 2010 nominee Jim Postma.
WA-10 (Currently brand spanking new): In exchange for turning WA3 and 8 Republican leaning and WA1 a toss up Democrats get WA10. Denny Heck (Last seen running for WA3 in 2010) is the heavy favorite to move onto November and defeat either Republican Pierce County Councilor Dick Muri (the more likely person, Muri has a lot of on the ground visibility) or Pierce County Councilor Democrat turned Republican Stan Flemming.
So keep an eye out on Washington this week (remember, we are so slow at counting ballot since ballots don’t actually have to be in on election day, just postmarked) for some clues as to what the fall will bring to my beautiful Evergreen State.
