Remember a few month back, when Markos was declaring Bachmann the eventual nominee? Then a couple weeks later, Perry enters and Bachmann plummets to 5%. At first, I, and I know many others, thought this was the end of her. But, gradually I have been convinced that she will be the eventual nominee. I figured that the Tea Party is basically the main voters (maybe 75%) who will turn out during the primaries. So, the Tea Partiers shall decide the nominee. The moderate wing only makes up like a quarter of the voters (these are Romney's and Huntsman's voters). So who is the most Tea Party of the 8 major candidates?
Romney? No way. Tea Party would never trust him in a million years due to his numerous flip flops (mandate, cap-and-trade, Climate Change, abortion, to name a few).
Gingrich? Nope. Tea Party just forgot who ole' Gingrich is. Once they remember his two affairs, former belief in Climate Change and the need of cap-and-trade, and his critique of Ryan's Medicare plan- he's a goner. I'll give him 2-4 weeks.
Cain? Negative. 1 sexual harassment charge and maybe you can calm down the Christian Tea Partiers....But 4? Yikes. Also, his flip-flop on abortion significantly reduce his chances.
Paul? No. Ron's just not the Tea Party type. He is a staunch libertarian who wants to legalize all drugs. He's to the left of a lot liberals on that one. He also doesn't want to fight irresponsible wars.... GOP ain't for him.
Perry? Nay. Perry was lookin' like a nominee winner a while ago. He literally was the Tea Partier's perfect candidate. His state executed the most people in the nation, had some of the lowest taxes, and still created jobs. It also didn't hurt that he had good hair and HUGE fundraising capability. But, then Rick spoke. First, it was the immigration gaffe (called the anti-DREAM act people, AKA GOP base, "heartless"). Then, he really screwed up in one of the debates trying to attack Romney (his words were jumbled and misused). Finally the nail in the coffin, the holy screw-up, Perry forgot the 3rd agency he would cut if elected President. Perry has been shunned by the Tea Party ever since..
Huntsman? Not happening. Has around the worst favorability ratings of GOP primary voters. He believes in Climate Change and evolution! He also believes in a moderate foreign policy towards China.
Santorum? Santorum is a little trickier. The only thing that may displease conservatives is his last name (if you haven't googled it yet- you should do it now). Overall, Santorum is a radical fiscal and radical social conservative. The lack of attention the media has been giving him is hiding this fact and thus killing his campaign. One thing he does lack, though is an ability to connect with the voters (not to mention his campaign is in debt and has a weak staff). I wouldn't count him out (like everyone else minus Romney who still has the establishment's and moderate GOP voters' backings), but he's still a long shot.
Can Bachmann win? Well lets see... She's a solid conservative who can connect with voters. She founded the Tea Party caucus in the House and has never flip-flopped on a major issue. She has a decent amount of money in the bank and a mediocre staff. She is as close to perfect as the Tea Party will get. And I bet you they will pick her as the anti-Romney (once they exhaust the other conservative candidates). Can she win against Romney? You Betcha'! Romney's ceilinged at between 20-25%. Once the other candidates drop out, conservatives can consolidate their support around Bachmann. Anyway, thats my prediction (which should make liberals rejoice as a Bachmann nomination guarantees Obama a second term and could help Dems preserve their Senate majority and take or cut back the GOP House majority) Please comment below, I am eager to listen to your thoughts.
P.S. I know this is kinda "immoral" and stuff- but maybe Dems should vote for Bachmann in the primary. A dem vote in the Dem primary won't count, in the GOP primary it definitely will.... :)
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