To start off, as a registered NC Democrat who didn't vote last election, I feel particularly guilty about the redistricting situation. Granted, I live in Sue Myrick's district, and my local districts are heavily GOP, so my vote would have probably been drowned out anyway, I still feel a certain amount of blame. I also have the bad fortune of having Bob Rucho represent me in the state Senate. Rucho was the architect of the unfair and illegal Congressional map that passed the General Assembly and a partisan hack of the worst kind. I'll frequently be referring to the new Congressional map as the "Ruchomander."
A bit of a historical side-story about NC redistricting: When Brad Miller was in charge of the redistricting process back in 2001, he was notoriously rough on the Republicans. Rucho was a victim of Miller's map; he was drawn into a district with another (wealthy) GOP incumbent. Rather than run in an expensive primary Rucho opted to retire. In 2008 though, Rucho managed to win that seat in the State Senate and now ironically Chairs the Redistricting Committee. So from the start, I knew ol' Rucho would be out for blood.
While the later version(s) of his plan were undoubtedly worse than the original, I wanted to see if I could make an even worse map for Democrats. Looking at the recently-passed map, the 2 non-safe Democrats that are most likely to win are Shuler and McIntyre. One of my prime goals here was to endanger both of them even more.
Statewide:
NC-01
New (my map): Obama +40.9% (margin of victory)
Old (2001-2010 map): Obama +26.8%
Pretty similar to Rucho's iteration. 52.4% black overall, 50.8% black VAP. It should avoid any retrogression charges. Still over 70% Obama; not much to say. Butterfield would need to have an enormous gaffe to even have a chance at losing here. Even then....
NC-02
New: McCain +11.9%
Old: Obama +4.3%
The Rucho's CD-2 was the umm...inspiration...for this; it pretty much outlines the 4th. In terms of partisanship, this seat is virtually the same as ol' Rucho's. Larry Kissell would likely face off against Renee Ellmers here. A fair amount of territory from both their district was transferred here. Ellmers would have Harnett, Lee and Chatham counties while Kissell would be left with parts of Cumberland, Montgomery and Hoke. I could possibly see Kissell defeating a weak incumbent like Ellmers, but a stronger Republican would likely take him out.
NC-03
New: McCain +12.2%
Old: MCCain +23.6%
Again, this is similar to the current CD3. It reaches a bit further along the VA border to take in some McCain voters and, at its other extreme, keeps its arm into Wilmington to deprive McIntyre of familiar voters. McCain's margin here is cut in half, but Jones is still very popular on the personal level anyway. Safe for Jones; tossup if open. I'm pretty sure Perdue won here by at least 10.
NC-04
New: Obama +44.4%
Old: Obama +25.5%
Still about 72% Obama. A pretty classic redistricting dilemma: two incumbents, one district. I'm actually not sure if Miller would live here, but I'd be surprised if he ran in my 13th. The addition of Miller's native Fayetteville to the district should help him in a primary against Price. Its such a tragedy to see them thrown into a primary; they're both great.
NC-05
New: McCain +15.1%
Old: McCain + 22.5%
My 5th was pretty much a leftover district. It reaches south to grab some Democratic counties from the 11th (Haywood, Yancey, Madison), but also adds parts of ruby-red Davidson county. Foxx would actually live here. The district's trend should also favor her.
NC-06
New: McCain +12.1%
Old: McCain +27.5%
Like that in the Ruchomander, my 6th now hugs the VA border. It subsequently gets slightly less Republican in my version (55.5% McCain compared to Rucho's 55.7%). I expect Coble to hold it, but it would probably be better if he steps aside for a stronger candidate.
NC-07
New 7th: McCain +17.8%
Old 7th: McCain +5.6%
NC-08
New 8th: McCain +16.9%
Old 8th: Obama+ 5.6%
Other than Shuler, who I'll get to later, my biggest target with this map was McIntyre. Most of his 7th is split among 2 districts that each gave McCain over 58%; both are even more hostile than the district he's slated to run in next year. For the 7th, I tried to give McIntyre as much new territory as possible; basically, anywhere north or east of Duplin County, he'd be pretty unknown.
Mike's other option would be to run in the 8th, where he actually lives. It starts in Columbia county and arcs up to grab solidly-red Davidison, Stanley, Union, Rowan and Cabarrus counties. He'd have a solid base in the southern counties, but that would likely be overwhelmed by he western counties. The 8th is a tick less GOP than my 7th, but still, not an appealing option.
NC-09
New: McCain +4.6%
Old: McCain +9.88%
The PVI here is very deceiving. Other than Ellmera, Myrick was the only Republican to get a friendlier district under the Ruchomander. In my map, she takes about a 5% less safe seat. The voters she lost, mostly those from ruby-red Union county have been transferred to the 8th. As a voter in NC-09 (and someone who's campaigned against Myrick), I a can say that Sue is immensely popular, despite some (many) of her outlandish views. She could easily hold down this R+6 seat. Even if she retires (she's 70), McCrory could succeed her; he'd be a shoo-in as well. This seat is considerably more GOP at the state level, giving Republicans almost 58%. Also, 47% would certainly be the high-water mark for a Democratic Presidential candidate here.
NC-10
New: McCain +16.3%
Old: McCain +27.8%
McHenry gets a 57% McCain seat which, with the exception of Asheville, is trending even more red. A Democrat could use Asheville as a base against McHenry, but I doubt they'd have much appeal outside of Bumcombe county or McDowell couties (McDowell also voted for Shuler last year).
NC-11
New: McCain +21.2%
Old: McCain +5.6%
As much as I love Heath Shuler, I don't see him winning here. This seat even more GOP than the one he's running in next year. As rougemapper pointed out in his excellent overview, a better way to weaken Shuler would have been to drag his district out along the SC border; the closer to Charlotte NC-11 reaches, the more the Shuler name diminishes. At R+15, this is the most GOP seat in the state and the only district thats over 60% McCain. But who knows...Shuler could stick around and become the Gene Taylor of NC.
Also, just to make sure Shuler doesn't use Asheville as a base if he runs in another district, I split it largely between Foxx's 5th and McHenry's 10th with the 11th still keeping a small slice of Bumcombe county.
NC-12
New: Obama +58.2%
Old: Obama +41.4%
My 12th is even more packed than Rucho's; its 79% Obama compared to his, which is 78%. I honestly never thought it was possible to draw a Congressional district this Democratic in the south where Obama won by almost 60%! Its 48.7% black VAP, 49.8% black overall, so I'm not sure if it would hold up in court or not.
NC-13
New: McCain +5.0%
Old: Obama +18.7%
This could be my maps biggest weakness. I don't feel like the 13th is sufficiently Republican. Its only 52% McCain, but like my 9th, its more GOP on the state level (55-45 Republican). Its basically a swingier version of my 9th. The GOP would ostensibly have a head start here, but the district's trend would favor Democrats. Paul Coble could run here, but I'm not exactly sure if he'd be strong enough to hold it down the line.
In the final analysis, this would probably be 10-3 R in 2012. Outside of the 3 safe districts, I really don't see any other Democrats holding on. By the end of the decade, we'd have a good shot at the 13th plus Jones' eventual retirement could give us the 3rd.
Stats:
Thanks for reading!
