New OH Q-poll's demographic basis

PeterY

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday February 29, 2016 · 8:48 AM PST

2016/02/29 · 08:48

Q has a poll out that does a Clinton/Trump 42/44 head-to-head:

Q poll

Interesting to compare the demographic basis with the turnout from 2012:

Q Poll: Men 51.3 Women 48.7 White 84 Black 11 Latino/Asian 5

2012 Exit Poll: Men 48 Women 52 White 79 (34 College 45 No College) Black 15 Latino/Asian 6

2016 Demographic Projection (if turnout is about same as 2012): White 77.5 (College 36 No college 41.5) Black 15.5 Latino/Asian 7

Moral of the story is head-to-heads this far out are nothing to freak out about.

Trump will turn out his no-college white base but will also turn out the Obama coalition if HRC by herself won’t.

What do the exit polls reveal?

PeterY

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Saturday November 08, 2014 · 10:12 AM PST

2014/11/08 · 10:12

A simple exit poll question, "Who did you vote for in 2012", would have said more about this 85MM electorate than anything else. 2012's 129MM electorate, without the (as Fox News complains) "hope and change fuzz" of 2008, set a definitive benchmark for the Dem floor and GOP ceiling. Not asking that question is journalistic incompetence; if asked and not divulged, it is media malpractice and election-relevance obfuscation. My suspicion is this 2014 electorate was skewed to Romney voters by 5 or 6 points when in 2012 he lost by 4 points.

Learning to talk to Southern men?

PeterY

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday November 06, 2012 · 3:57 AM PST

2012/11/06 · 03:57

I've heard the pleas to progressives from DLC apologists to accommodate Southern men. Unfortunately the only way they can be placated is by acquiescing in the voter suppression Rethugs and ALEC are determined to expand; by acquiescing in the rejection of Science their young-earth-creationist worldview straitjackets them in; by acquiescing in the misogyny that is at the root of their fetus fetish; by acquiescing in the disdain for the poor/unfortunate that is the product of a century of resistance to the emancipation proclamation. No there is no way to accommodate this brand of Southern man, we are right around the corner where these dinosaurs dont actually matter to building a progressive majority. FDR's coalition was eternally broken by the Civil Rights & Voting Rights Acts and pretending Humpty Dumpty can be put back together is inherently not progressive.

Is MSM on a nostalgia binge...

PeterY

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday November 01, 2012 · 12:31 PM PDT

2012/11/01 · 12:31

...for the days when minority vote didn't affect elections? Widely acknowledged as the last election in which Rethugs stand a chance, is nostalgia for the pre-2008 political landscape what's driving the discourse? Not so much an anti-Obama stance as a wistful sigh at white privilege slipping away?

Gallup's LV model has Non-Hispanic white vote at 80%

PeterY

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday October 21, 2012 · 3:26 AM PDT

2012/10/21 · 03:26

The most recent (October 16) breakdown of the LV spread, the same one that shows the South as producing all of Romney's national LV spread, also has data for non-hispanic white & non-white spreads for Romney and Obama respectively. A simple equation for the white share of the vote, x, shows that the LV model has white(non-Hispanic) turnout at 80%!
0.22x = (100-x)* 0.68 + 4
Solving for x, x=80.
No fricking way (2008 was 74%) is that possible judging by turnout in OH and NC early voting. In point of fact, if white turnout falls to 75.5%, Romney's LV advantage (4 on Gallup, October 16) disappears totally!

So much for agonizing over Gallup's numbers!

Note on Gallup's regional breakdown below the fold.

RSS