Al Qa-Qaa and the Polls

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Friday October 29, 2004 · 11:05 AM PDT

2004/10/29 · 11:05

My theory is as follows: The political impact of this story is only now starting to appear.

The Al-Qa Qaa story broke last Monday in the New York Times and was big news throughout the week. The first tracking polls that would have included polling from Mon-Wed came out yesterday. As is usual with big news events it takes a few days for the negative news on Bush to affect people's voting preference. And this year there are fewer undecideds than there often is the week before an election - limiting the amount of movement we might see from a big news event.

However, today (Fri) is the beginning of the period where we could see some of that re-appraisal (for those who support Bush) and some drift to Kerry.

TIPP and Zogby confirm a drift towards Kerry. If this continues we will know that it has had a political impact. The fact that it hasn't significantly altered the polls yet should not be taken to mean it won't have an effect. It could likely still have a significant effect on the election (3-4 points in Kerry's favor).

Rove to WaPo

Tough

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Thursday October 28, 2004 · 10:47 PM PDT

2004/10/28 · 22:47

From WaPo:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7376-2004Oct28.html

Bush strategist Karl Rove said Thursday night that the campaign's private polls show the president even or ahead in eight of the 10 battleground states -- including Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Mexico -- with leads outside the polls' margins of error in four. He predicted a victory for Bush but said "the next five days are critical."
-----
Now, the fact that Bush's internals are being spewed by Rove and Cornerites, as Atrios has said, is clearly an attempt to pump up the troops. Let's break it down:

10 BGs:

1)FL
2)OH
3)PA
4)WI
5)MN
6)NM
7)IA
8)MI
9)NV
10)CO(?) Read More

Bush is slipping

Tough

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Wednesday October 27, 2004 · 10:15 AM PDT

2004/10/27 · 10:15

Why else would Drudge gin up a terror threat.
http://drudgereport.com/abct.htm

How many crazy fucking terrorists play with their video camera during their spare time in the mountains of Pakistan? Are we supposed to instantly broadcast any and all of their home movies?

I'm sure Rove would love it if we did.

Transcipt: Halperin-Rove, last night, 12am

Tough

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 10:37 PM PDT

2004/10/24 · 22:37

MARK: Hello?
KARL: It's Karl.
MARK: I didn't expect you to call back so soon. I did the best I could to debunk the 2 for 3 FLOHPA crap.
KARL: The President plans to point that out to Gibson tomorrow; to stress Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico. I want it writen up and pushed around at ABC, get some folks talking about it.
MARK: Ok sure. But I still don't see how he wins without FLOHPA.
KARL: I want no mention of Arkansas in The Note tomorrow. You do, and Karen pulls your access.
MARK: Well, I'll have to site that new poll out today...
KARL: Why?
MARK: Speculation is rampant Kerry and Clinton will go there...together...to
KARL: Fuck Clinton.
MARK: But they might go there...and...
KARL: Relax. Stop. Just do what I say.
MARK: Ok

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=193746&page=1

Regarding Zogby

Tough

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 11:15 AM PDT

2004/10/24 · 11:15

This is a plea for people not to get too worked up over Zogby's daily tracking. It is the nature of such polls that they wobble around from day to day. Also, try and ignore his leaking of single day samples. The fact is, each day's sample is only of around 400 people. Sampling 400 likely voters gives us about a 10%MoE. Zogby loves to leak little tidbits to try and create a narrative about his tracking polls. Remember his data several days ago that Bush was leading among young voters? That lead quickly disappeared, never to be heard from again.

Bush's polls show him worse off than published polling!

Tough

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Saturday October 23, 2004 · 11:39 PM PDT

2004/10/23 · 23:39

Anyone catch this lpassage from tomorrow's WaPo:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57458-2004Oct23_2.html

That Republican official said polling for Bush showed him in a weaker position than some published polls, both nationally and in battlegrounds. In many of the key states, the official said, Bush is below 50 percent, and he is ahead or behind within the margin of sampling error -- a statistical tie.

"There's just no place where they're polling outside the margin of error so they can say, 'We have this state,' " the official said. "And they know that an incumbent needs to be outside the margin of error."

I'd be willing to bet this "official" is referring to Colorado and Nevada and possibly Ohio which are being heavily contested by the campaign, but published polling shows they aren't that close. And if those states are actually close, what to make of the bluer battlegrounds!

I cracked the case of mysterious MI poll!!!

Tough

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Saturday October 23, 2004 · 12:52 PM PDT

2004/10/23 · 12:52

Check it out Kossacks. This mysterious Michigan tracking poll being done for Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/22/a01-312436.htm has shown Bush leading the last couple days and I got a bit concerned. There was word Bush may have surged in Michigan and both candidates scheduled last minute stops there next week. But, Epic/MRA then released a poll:http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/22/a01-312436.htm showing Kerry increasing his lead over Bush to 6 points compared to earlier last month when it was only 4 points. So, I was confused until I checked the complete Michigan polling history (which can be found here: http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/mi_polls.html). It turns out this Detroit Press poll is being done by Mitchell Research ( I checked the fine print.) Read More

Tucker Eskew starts a blog

Tough

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Saturday October 23, 2004 · 9:15 AM PDT

2004/10/23 · 09:15

Should we spam Tucker Eskew's new blog.
http://tuckereskew.typepad.com/tucker_eskew/

He's a creepy Bush advisor and he actually has the nerve to rant on and on about the Bush campaign and how great it is. Is this an attempt to calm nervous supporters? It's kind of wierd that an advisor to the President would start his own blog.

Basically he just makes fun of Kerry. They don't have anything to talk about. As Tad Devine pointed out yesterday, they don't even put Bush in their ads!

Thousands awaiting Kerry rally in Reno

Tough

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Friday October 22, 2004 · 4:37 PM PDT

2004/10/22 · 16:37

Thousands of people are waiting in line outside the Lawlor Events Center in Reno to hear a speech from Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

Security procedures are slowing the flow of the crowd into the arena that holds about 10,000 people on the UNR campus just north of downtown Reno.

About 40 protesters who support President Bush are on a hill overlooking the arena, waving signs and chanting "Four More Years." People in line to see Kerry are shouting back, "Two More Weeks."

Some estimates put the crowd outside the arena in the neighborhood of 7,000 at about 4:00 Thursday afternoon. The doors opened at 3:00 and Kerry is expected to speak at about 5:00.

News 4 will broadcast the speech live.

http://www.krnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2465967&nav=8faOSHmN

EXCLUSIVE TRANSCRIPT:Karl Rove and Mark Halperin

Tough

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Friday October 22, 2004 · 12:57 PM PDT

2004/10/22 · 12:57

(transcript of phone conversation between Mark Halperin, ABC News Political Director and Karl Rove, 10/16/04)

KARL: Hey Mark
MARK: Hey Ssmip (Single Smartist Man in Politics)
KARL: About your 2 for 3 thing...
MARK: Yea, the Note was the first. I told you I'd get that idea out there, Karl!
KARL: I know. But I think you're wrong.
MARK: What. But I don't understand. You told me at the Palm, last February, that was the organizing principle of your electoral strategy. You brought that cool little chart, with all those numbers and fun red and blue stickers and told me it was impossible to win the Presidency without going two for three in FLOHPA. Those were your exact words!!
KARL: Mark, my boy, I know. But let's just forget about the OHPA part for a minute..
MARK: Forget! Forget?! I've staked my career on this, Karl. I've told readers for months to look at who is winning 2-3, now you tell me to forget. Damn it! I'm so pissed I'm going for a Diet Coke!
(as Halperin heads to the official ABC News vending machine) ...more, click below... Read More

Sexy SurveyUSA numbers out just now!

Tough

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Thursday October 21, 2004 · 5:37 PM PDT

2004/10/21 · 17:37

Survey USA
October 21 (October 6)
http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

IOWA
Kerry 51 (48)
Bush 45 (47)

MICHIGAN
Kerry 51 (52)
Bush 44 (42)

MAINE 10/20 (10/5)
Kerry 51 (49)
Bush 45 (47)

How about that Iowa number, or that Maine number!? I'll concede Michigan has tighened slightly, probably a factor of the President and VP visiting the state more often then Kerry these last few weeks. Cheney was just there as was Bush, Kerry hasn't been there since the middle of September). But, Kerry will be there on Monday to shore it up. No worries. Some polls in Michigan in 2000 even had Gore losing and he won comfortably with a Repub governor.

Question: Is Cheney's nuke threat over the line?

Tough

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Wednesday October 20, 2004 · 11:07 AM PDT

2004/10/20 · 11:07

And if so, why the fuck has no one really hit him for it. Accoriding to Noted Now, Cheney twice today referred to it. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/NotedNow/story?id=156246

I know the Kerry campaign is saying they're guy fought and blead for his country and it's ridiculous to call him "unprepared" to defend this country in the event of a WMD attack.

But it strikes me that, as with the Mary Cheney comment, we should see some in the media asking "Was Cheney over the line." I bet the Kerry folks would rather get their message out then always be responding to Cheney and his wild remarks. We need a high profile surrogate or two to call Cheney out on this.

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