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Thinking about Bernie's Future, or Holy Rosa Luxembourg, We're doing it!
Hello, Genossinnen und Genossen!
As I write this (August 30th), I've just returned from a day's canvassing for Bernie Sanders in Burlington, Iowa! My timing couldn't have been better- I was part of the team on the day that the Des Moine Register found that Clinton's lead has shrunk by two thirds! She now leads Sanders by only 7 or 8 points, depending on whether Biden enters the race as well.
Let that sink in. Within single digits in Iowa, winning in New Hampshire. And the debates haven't even happened yet.
If Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, or even loses Iowa by less than expected, this primary cycle will go on for a long time. It will get harder of course: Sanders will need to build up organizations in many more states to sustain the current trajectory, which can be nigh impossible for a campaign eschewing big dollar fundraising...
https://secure.actblue.com/...
-just click the link to mitigate that problem:)
and compete in larger states where campaign events matter even less relative to television spending than they do in comparatively small and intimate Iowa ad New Hampshire. That said, the flurry of media attention resulting in such a scenario would go a long way towards mitigating Bernie's comparative fundraising disadvantage.
In short, it now looks conceivable that Senator Bernie Sanders could be the Democratic candidate for president in 2016, but only after an incredibly long, strenuous, season-long primary fight, probably being ultimately decided by late caucus results and with an element of uncertainty lasting until the convention itself. Something like this hasn't happened since 1972, when the George McGovern insurgency, with the help of their Feminist, Student and Gay comrades, ultimately prevailed and threw open the doors of the Democratic Party for the first time. This was a triumph not since equaled by the American left, and while McGovern didn't win, the coalition around him has strengthened, achieving many of his campaign's goals, and bringing the Democratic Party (however reluctantly) into the 21st century, at least on many issues of social policy.
Sanders could well do better, but that's not what I'm writing about today.
You see, one of the many, many lessons of 1972 is that picking a VP candidate takes lots of time, time that a small scale campaign boxing well above its weight class doesn't always have to spare. So I wanted to go through the qualities that would be helpful in a crassly political way to our movement for Democratic Socialism through a Sanders presidency, and then analyze the merits of ten possible choices, (and rule out four popular ones.)
At the time of the election, Sanders will be five years older than the oldest president ever elected, and while he is apparently in good health, age will be a consideration in a running mate. Much of this is going to be crass ticket balancing talk. And with a northeastern, white, elderly, male, religiously agnostic, culturally and ethnically Jewish representative of the far Left as a candidate, we have a lot of balancing to do. Therefore, we could use
An ideological Goldilocks. We need a candidate sufficiently removed from Sanders' ideas to show that we're still open to working in the mainstream of Democratic and democratic politics. At the same time, we need someone who will likely work to protect whatever Sanders accomplishes, ( http://grahamkrueger.blogspot.com/... ) and therefore shouldn't be too conservative either. A current Clinton supporter could do this nicely.
Executive Experience- voters like people who have been in charge of something, anything no matter how small, much more than they like someone with legislative experience. While Bernie does have a commendable record as mayor of a midsize city, finding a governor would be excellent.
Outreach: This is partially a function of time, but as Genossin Sophie has written ( http://grahamkrueger.blogspot.com/... ), there is a perception of friction between the Sanders campaign and minority communities, and an even less justifiable perception of one between the campaign and women. Putting it bluntly, on every issue of representation- women being the oppressed majority of voters, and our Black and Latin@ comrades being at the forefront of the struggle in so many ways, as well as for crass political considerations, Sanders' running mate should probably not be a white male, though an astute observer will note that I have included a few possible choices from that demographic as well.
Region: New England is not the most popular region of the country, sadly (for the same reasons that make it certainly MY favorite), so if Sanders can get someone from the “heartlands” it would help us in several ways.
Youth. Can we please get a VP less then 65?
Finally- an Obama Goldilocks- as well as an ideological Goldilocks- someone who has served the president by appointment and will be appreciated for it in mainstream Democratic circles, BUT not someone high profile enough that the Right-Wing have included her or him in most of their attacks on the president. (Think 1920: Governor Cox made this same calculation with regard to the Wilson administration, and picked then-Assistant Navy Secretary FDR as his VP candidate)
Before we begin, I sadly must eliminate some otherwise exceptional candidates for various reasons. Senator Elizabeth Warren: she hates campaigning, and doesn't add much regional value, and has practically no ideological distance from Sanders. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellin is excellent, but far too valuable (and irrepaceable) in her current (unpopular) position. California up-and-comer and birth control activist Sandra Fluke is too young to be legally eligible still, Oregon Governor Kate Brown, while a capable legislator has failed every test of leadership on environmental issues, and former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm who would be maybe the ideal candidate... is actually Canadian. Well Goddamn it.
New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan is in class by herself, because she would be an ideal candidate in all ways except region, but is currently locked in a politically damaging budget fight. If she pulls through that ok, I'll revisit my decision to exclude her form the list.
Let's start the rundown with our top-tier eligible candidates. All pictures from wikimedia commons. Thank you, internet sharers!
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