As of 4AM ET, Obama's standing in the RAND American Life Panel is now 49.19% to Romney's 45.34%. That's almost a 2 point shift (1.95 points) over the course of a single day. Since RAND has been running this election forecast (July 11th), that's the second largest single day shift towards Obama. The largest shift toward Obama was from the 6th to the 7th of September, the day after the DNC ended, where Obama gained 2.42 points. The third largest shift was from the 16th to the 17th of October, after the town hall debate at Hofstra University, where Obama gained.
A couple things about these bumps. First of all, I think we can all agree that RAND was ahead of the curve on the post-convention shift. RAND for the month after the convention generally reflected most conventional polling in showing a rise in support for Obama. The shift following the second debate, however, was short-lived. By the time of the third debate, Obama's numbers had regressed right back to their lowest point after the first debate. Now, given the partisan nature of the electorate and the minimal remaining undecideds, the cautious approach here would be to assume Obama's numbers will regress the way they did after the second debate. However, there are some key numbers in some of RAND's other graphs that lead me to believe this is a more significant movement toward Obama. Follow me past the jump as I explain...
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