Just wanted to make sure everyone saw these two polls of the NY-26 race. The scene has been changing so rapidly but there are hardly any polls to show where it's really going. That's kind of like watching a horse race in the dark.... or something. =]
Anyway, one of the polls is credible and the other is incredible. Let's start with the latter: a poll commissioned by the Jack Davis campaign. Davis has not released any other information about the poll or who did it for them, so take this with perhaps a spoonful of salt. Still, it's interesting. It shows Hochul in the lead at 44%, Davis at 27%, and Corwin at 17%. Amazingly, Davis's campaign tries to spin this toward them: "It’s clear that if conservatives, Republicans and Tea Party patriots want to keep Kathy Hochul, a Nancy Pelosi Democrat, from representing this district, they must vote for Jack Davis." However, using the very numbers they put out, adding Corwin and Davis together only manages to tie Hochul at 44%!
http://www.nydailynews.com/...
Obviously, that poll alone does not merit its own diary. However, another interesting poll from Siena came out today. Siena only does New York, but they generally have a good track record. This poll shows Hochul with 42% and leading Corwin at 38% by just 4 points--notably, the margin of error is 3.9%. Davis on the other hand has fallen into irrelevancy with just 12%. This poll has a lot of other tidbits and it is well worth opening the PDF. For example, more of Hochul's supporters are absolutely certain they will not change their minds than are Corwin's supporters (73% to 66%) while only 43% of Davis supporters are certain they won't change their mind. Evidently, there are still a lot of Davis voters up for grabs in the last three days before Election Day. Also interesting is that Hochul has a 44-36 advantage among Independents and that Davis is grabbing Republicans and Democrats about equally (13% R, 10% D).
http://www.siena.edu/...
So it's going to be close. Possibly a slight advantage for Hochul. However, the arguments GOPers will certainly try to make if Hochul wins--that she only won because it was a 3-way race and that Davis took more GOP votes than D votes--seems not to pan out very much anymore. Hochul is tying-to-winning this race in her own right, now, which is an ominous sign for the GOP.
