Minnesota Senate Undervotes IV

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Tuesday November 11, 2008 · 8:58 AM PST

2008/11/11 · 08:58

The unofficial vote totals from the Minnesota Secretary of State's office seem to have stabilized, with Coleman ahead of Franken by 206 votes.

So there's no point in re-running yesterday's analysis. What I will do today is chase down a few ideas that have been in my head for a few days, and look at the available data a little differently.

Plus I'll throw in a few new graphs. Because I like graphs.

bitwise

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Monday November 10, 2008 · 12:17 PM PST

2008/11/10 · 12:17

Update: There is some additional analysis (plus a couple of new graphs) here.

Here come more graphs of the undervote in the Minnesota race for US Senate.

The big change here is that I figured out a way to extract the precinct ballot count* from the Minnesota SecState website, so I have a much more accurate count on the true number of undervotes, without having my data polluted by the presidential undervote. To my knowledge, I'm the first to extract the true undervote count-- everyone else seems to still be using the "pres minus senate" method, which is off by about 30%.

bitwise

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Sunday November 09, 2008 · 8:27 AM PST

2008/11/09 · 08:27

In the last couple of days I've seen a lot of discussion of the "undervote" count in the Minnesota race for US Senate. Franken fans are excited about the recount, and seem to be building up a lot of enthusiasm for what they see as a likely Franken win.

I would love to see Al Franken become our Senator, but recent reports are overly optimistic. In particular, I think that this AP article tends to misread the situation here on the ground in Minnesota.

bitwise

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Friday November 07, 2008 · 10:32 AM PST

2008/11/07 · 10:32

I live in Minnesota, and like everyone here, I've been on pins and needles waiting to find out who won the Minnesota US Senate seat. As of right now, Norm Coleman is ahead of Al Franken by 237 votes, a razor-thin margin in a race that had 2.8 million votes cast.

Yesterday I started to wonder if there was any data out there that could tell me whether the manual recount was likely to tilt the election toward or away from Franken. The recount is likely to turn lots of "undervote" ballots (ballots that recorded no vote for US Senate when they were run through the optical scan machine) into counted votes, so the totals for both candidates will certainly both go up. A question that occurs to me is, where did the undervotes occur?

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Minnesota Senate Undervotes IV

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Minnesota Senate Undervotes