538, realclear, pollster? Which do you trust?

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Saturday September 06, 2008 · 12:13 PM PDT

2008/09/06 · 12:13

Sorry for the short diary, but I frequently check in on the various poll tracking sites, and I'm not sure which, if any, has a better track record or trust within the community here. As of 09/06/2008, they all have different EV projections:

538
Obama-310, McCain-228

pollster.com
Obama-309, McCain-229

realclearpolitics.com
Obama-273, McCain-265

Obviously realclear is the dramatic outlier here, which leads me to trust the 538/pollster numbers as more accurate. That said, a lot of seemingly knowledgeable people here refer to realclearpolitics.com on occasion - are they reliable? Biased? Why the huge spread? Are there other/better poll trackers out there?

Where Hillary and her "supporters" went wrong

brendani

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Sunday June 01, 2008 · 5:09 PM PDT

2008/06/01 · 17:09

Needless to say it's difficult to single out any one incident or action that cost Hillary Clinton the nomination, but there are several things that I feel are important to note. It's clear that many of her supporters feel so cheated that they plan to withhold their vote or worse, and I for one plan to talk as many of them down from that ledge as possible between now and the general. Knowing what went wrong might be a good place to start.

I should add that everything in this diary is pure speculation on my part, based on my observations over the past year.

brendani

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Sunday September 04, 2005 · 9:24 AM PDT

2005/09/04 · 09:24

It truly seems as if the republican party is sinking under the weight of their own hubris, and the excellent RIP GOP diary does a great job of explaining this. However, there are a few key elements we MUST deal with if we want to use this as an opportunity to recapture America's trust, and votes, as a party. First off, a cursory visit to the winger sites makes it quite clear that the rank and file are learning quickly from their leadership when it comes to passing the buck, making excuses, and blaming liberals for every one of their failures. Like their leadership, they are unwilling if not incapable of accepting responsibility when their policies fail.

More below.... Read More

Maybe Rove is telling the truth...

brendani

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Sunday July 10, 2005 · 10:50 AM PDT

2005/07/10 · 10:50

If there's one thing Karl Rove isn't, it's stupid. Hate him all you want, but the guy knows what he's doing. I am inclined to believe that he had nothing to do (at least directly) with the outing scandal - my reasoning below the fold: Read More

Dems sell out AGAIN - How much more can we take??

brendani

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Monday May 23, 2005 · 4:55 PM PDT

2005/05/23 · 16:55

So here we have it. Once again the dems have failed us so miserably. Giving the repugs their vote on the absolute worst of the judicial nominees, including Owen and Brown. To top it off, I am watching Dewine talk out his ass in the press conference, and he actually referred to it as the constitutional option. Lieberman smirking off in the corner is too much to bear, off goes my tv.

I am so stunned and disappointed, our leadership sucks beyond hope. I hope all seven of these fucks lose their seats next election, including Reid, majority be damned. This is an absolute disaster for our country.

Religion vs. the left

brendani

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Monday May 09, 2005 · 12:15 PM PDT

2005/05/09 · 12:15

Since there's been so much talk here lately on the issue of religion and our approach to this touchy issue, I figured I should weigh in. Having grown up in Texas with a minister grandfather, I've had some exposure to these issues from the other side and my experience has led me to my conclusions, not bias or social bigotry. The issue comes down to "faith."

Is bankruptcy bill really so bad?

brendani

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Thursday April 14, 2005 · 7:13 PM PDT

2005/04/14 · 19:13

This diary is only intended to prompt some honest debate, so don't flame me just for presenting an opposing view to this bill.

I have been very pissed off about the bankruptcy bill for a few days now, but today started thinking about it a little more realistically. In my lifetime I have known probably six or seven people who have declared bankruptcy. In every single case, they were merely trying to escape debt that they had accrued by being irresponsible, racking up HUGE credit card debts and were looking for a way out of a situation that was self-inflicted. It wasn't need, they weren't starving, they just wanted a clean slate. Don't we all? More below the fold >> Read More

On winning the battle and losing the war

brendani

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Thursday March 31, 2005 · 7:00 PM PST

2005/03/31 · 19:00

Ahh, "big-picture" politics. The situation looks all too familiar - every time the Republican party wants to push something through (or win elections) their formula is pretty simple:

stupid rules... More after the flop... Read More

Why PropaGannon won't matter

brendani

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Tuesday February 15, 2005 · 10:32 PM PST

2005/02/15 · 22:32

After giving it a few days and observing the response we've received over the Gannon affair, I think it's time we moved on to bigger and better things. We simply aren't going to get the reception from the mainstream media that will push this story where it needs to go, and we should learn from it.

First off, we're pushing a story that makes the media look really bad (after all, everything happened right under their noses) which dings their credibility. It showed that their institution is crumbling, because everyday people (Gannon) can infiltrate their "holy grail" and be effective (or not). The country doesn't really need them, both sides hate them for being biased, and they are trying to protect themselves at every turn. This includes not being tougher on Bush, as to avoid pissing off the 49% of morons who still think Bush is good for America. Last but definitely not least, it showed the true power of the blogosphere and our ability to provide where the MSM fails. They simply will not run with a story that serves up a left-right-left TKO. More... Read More

Follow the money - the Gannon trail leads to Carlyle?

brendani

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Friday February 11, 2005 · 7:03 PM PST

2005/02/11 · 19:03

Okay this is a bit loose and dirty, but a lot of big fat maybe's have turned into full blown gold lately, so I think this might be worth following up on:

The #3 exec listed on GOPUSA's board of directors list (oddly, no longer up on their site but cached in google and on my hard drive) is one Steve Findley - President, CEO and Chairman of Titan Dynamics Systems, Inc. Titan is essentially a subsidiary of Carlyle Group. More below the fold...
Read More

my sad switch to independent voter

brendani

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Wednesday November 17, 2004 · 11:34 PM PST

2004/11/17 · 23:34

With slime like Joe Lieberman and Zell Miller glad-handing Hannity and boosting the GOP candidate, you'd think the DNC would realize they have a near revolt on their hands not from the "centrist" dems but from the rest of us. Apparently not, and I am seriously considering bailing out on the Democratic Party - here's why. Read More

WHERE is our leadership in all this?!?!?

brendani

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Thursday November 04, 2004 · 9:56 PM PST

2004/11/04 · 21:56

Okay, I am really starting to get fumed. The DNC website is closed for business, with Kerry's concession up and that's it. They either don't want any feedback of any kind or they are hiding like chickenshits. No words from Terry or the other goons on what the hell is going on, even though every Democratic website, community and circle of friends is abuzz trying to make sense of nonsense voting results and DEMANDING RECOUNTS. NM is now a statistical dead heat (48.9% love), and if voting fraud in Florida (as reported by blackboxvoting.com) is even remotely accurate, challenges are fully reasonable and in order. The Republican party would be challenging states if they lost narrowly due to sketchy voting conditions and statistical ties. We owe it to the world to cash in on our rights as citizens of a Democracy and demand the same.

The Democratic leadership (and party et al) is oddly, one might say suspiciously, quiet. Where is our GELAC fund? Where is our "till every last vote is counted" and our clear potential victory in NM? And where the FUCK is terryMac?

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