Joe Donnelly's Kavanaugh vote is 11-dimaneional Chess
Let’s begin with areas of agreement:
- There is a very slim path to Democrats taking back the Senate in 2018, emphasis on the “very.”
- There is no path to Democrats taking back the Senate without holding onto Joe Donnelly’s seat in Indiana.
- Donnelly’s race has long been considered one of the closest and most precarious of the cycle.
- Brett Kavanaugh would be a disaster of unspeakable dimensions as a justice on the Supreme Court.
To the best of my knowledge, all of the above are considered to be, from the Democratic perspective, the factual state of play.
So, let’s now have a pragmatic conversation about why Joe has not declared how he will be voting on the Kavanaugh confirmation. Toward this end I make some assumptions:
- I think it is safe to say that Senator Schumer has had all of the states with at-risk Senate seats polled on the subject of Kavanaugh and it is likely that he will do so again prior to any vote of the full Senate.
- I believe that Joe has not declared because Schumer has told him not to, just as, I believe, Schumer has told all the at-risk Senators to hold off.
The other thing which is worth saying is that Joe Donnelly has consistently voted the way he told Hoosiers he would vote during his campaigns, both for the House and the Senate. Almost all of those votes have been in concert with the majority of the Democratic party and when he has voted against the party he has voted in accordance the sentiments of the majority of his constituents. Donnelly is not a guy who purposefully swims upstream, looks for conflict or grandstands. He is a solid, straightforward Hoosier. That is how he got elected in the first place and it is how he will, hopefully, get re-elected.
Now, on to his possible Kavanaugh vote. I think it is incumbent upon us to pay attention to the knife’s edge upon which Donnelly’s vote rests. We must be realistic. We must be pragmatists. First of all, nothing matters on the Kavanaugh confirmation if we can’t swing two republican votes. Those are thought to be the votes of Senator Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska, and Senator Susan Collins of Maine.
Senator Murkowski, basically, owes her seat to the native Alaskan vote and, especially, to their large campaign contributions. During the recent Kavanaugh hearings, Senator Mazie Hirono (Hawaii) shrewdly questioned Kavanaugh on his rulings against special programs for native Hawaiians. This raised the visibility of Kavanaugh’s opinions on the subject and native Alaskans are now leaning on Murkowski to vote against. Reportedly, they are leaning pretty hard.
In the meantime, Senator Collins, once again, has concerns. (For anyone who follows her political record and plays the Collins drinking game every time she “has concerns”…go ahead and take a drink.) In response to the issue Democrats raised during the hearings relating to Kavanaugh having, clearly, lied under oath during his 2004 Senate hearings, Senator Collins told the Portland Press Herald, her hometown paper, “If in fact (Kavanaugh) was not truthful, then (sic) obviously that would be a major problem for me.”
My thinking is this, both Murkowski and Collins have been receiving enormous pressure, particularly from those on both sides of the abortion debate. Both senators have tired to wiggle out from under this by electing to believe Kavanaugh is not stretching the truth beyond the breaking point when he tells them that he considers Roe v Wade “settled law.” Of course, Roe IS settled right now but it comes down to the interpretation of “what is is” doesn’t it?!? Obviously, if Kavanaugh is on the Court then SCOTUS will re-settle, so-to-speak, the law because SCOTUS is the place where that happens. Regardless, Murkowski and Collins, who both claim to be pro-choice, were willing to overlook Kavanaugh’s deception on this and vote with their party. And then came the hearings…. Now it is possible that Murkowski will side with her donors and Collins will use the scandal of the Kavanaugh lie to tell McConnell to give them a different conservative justice. This is by no means likely, but it is possible, and it is what Schumer and Donnelly are waiting to hear.
There are four options:
- Murkowski and Collins declare against Kavanaugh and McConnell never sends the vote to the floor. Dems win. There is an enormous Democratic happy dance. At that point I think many, if not all, of the at-risk senators will say that they would have voted against Kavanaugh and they will benefit from the boost of the Democratic victory.
- Murkowski and Collins stick with their party in which case Kavanaugh cannot be stopped. At that point, Schumer’s polling in all of the at-risk states comes into play and each of the associated senators will vote in accordance with the polling and their understanding of what their consistencies want. Schumer will release them to vote in the manner which is most likely to get them returned to the Senate from their state.
- Murkowski and Collins split with one coming out for and the other against. I actually don’t think this is especially likely. It seems to me that neither one will want to stand alone against their entire party. Regardless, as with option two, Schumer will look at the polling and make the call for the at-risk Dems. He will hold them or release them as he feels will best advantage the Democrats in taking the Senate.
- Another Republican Senator wakes the hell up and notices the polling on both Kavanaugh and Trump. The polling on both this nominee and the president is truly atrocious so it is not beyond the laws of political physics that someone else jumps. It’s not at all likely but it is possible. In that case, I do think Murkowski will be the one to take the plunge and come out strongly for a conservative who will be more amenable to her constituency. At that point, who cares about Collins’ concerns (take a drink). Schumer will proclaim victory and at-risk Dems will take a bow for how “brave” they would have been.
What it all boils down to is that if Schumer needs Donnelly, he will have that vote, otherwise the calculus of what it will take for Joe to hold on to his seat will be the decider. Calling for any of the at-risk Dems to come out prior to Schumer’s behind-the-scenes decision is naive. Weighing the possible defeat of Kavanaugh against the potential to take the Senate requires a birds-eye-view of both chess boards and only those with insider knowledge of that math will be able to make the most judicious call.
I completely understand the sentiments of those who say that if Joe votes for Kavanaugh they will not vote for Joe. I started out with that perspective as well but over time I pulled back in order to “see the whole board.” (*wink*) This IS multi-dimensional chess. Taking the Senate (in addition to the House) is the way we stop Trump. And remember, 2020 is still a long way off and RBG is no Spring chicken. Losing the Kavanaugh vote would be an enormous blow, simply enormous. It makes me sick just to think about it. Still, I have to be practical. I live in rural Indiana and it’s pretty clear to me that Donnelly is in the race of his life. I want him to vote in whatever way Schumer thinks best–and I believe he will. Either way, Joe has my vote.
[Note: sadly, my day job has me buried right now so I will have very little time to defend this post from the barrage of attacks which may well come. I will do what I can and apologize in advance for not having more time. I post only rarely and would not have posted this except that it has been burning hole in my brain and I had to put it down in writing somewhere. Should debate ensue below, I suspect it will be interesting. It would be especially interesting to hear from other Hoosiers. Cheers!]
