"Before Alamein we never had a victory. After Alamein we never had a defeat." - Winston Churchill
I remember Tuesday night. At least, I think I do. The shock, the astonishment, the disgust, the despair. I don’t need to re-iterate the list of what stands to be lost or stands to be put at risk, dozens of others have more capably and more accurately captured the impact. Nor do I feel a great need to lay out what others have already done so ably: the metrics of the defeat, or the message that was not delivered.
I also firmly believe that, despite the unfortunate crowing of some and unhelpful apologism of others, the base and leadership of the Democratic Party know where we need to go. Don’t downplay the marker by Chuck Schumer. And take good notice that nobody is arguing over the principles of where we need to go, only whether or not a sitting official should be in charge. Contrast that to the *shocking* factionalism that is already breaking out in Trumplandia.
But I digress. As a student of history at heart (despite having drifted rather far from it in my professional life much closer to the world of politics), I can’t help but be drawn to examining any event in the context of the past. Make no mistake, the election of Trump as President of the United States is an unprecedented event, and a disgraceful reflection of the ugliness that lurks in America. But it is also buttressed by historical and cyclical political forces that existed quite distinctly from the hideous rhetoric of the campaign.
As I said at the outset, I’m under no illusions about stands to be lost (or never achieved) over the next 4 years. Yet I’m also, by nature, I cannot help but examine politics through the lens of the ideological battlefield that it has always been.
Although its always simplistic and a little self-serving to draw parallels with otherwise unrelated historical events, there seems to be a metaphor here worth considering. The hyper-partisan and divisive nature of American politics has led to an electoral battlefield that is incredibly elastic. Elected officials struggle to carve out independent brands distinct from partisan identities, which has increased the frequency of swings and counter responses. Americans aren’t willing to give one party the control that was once enjoyed by either the Democrats or Republicans earlier in the previous century. The last 30+ years have instead been characterised by seemingly sudden advances and retreats by one party or the other, driven by an accelerated public hunger for “change” (whatever it may be) and a media that demands it.
American politics has become the North African Campaign of the Second World War. You know, the one that swung wildly back and forth across the desert for the better part of three years. The one where stunning and seemingly decisive victories were followed by equally catastrophic reverses as one side or the other became overstretched and vulnerable.
What can easily be lost in this electoral tit-for-tat is that we’re engaged in a “war” of values and ideas for the soul of the American people. The grinding pace of governance and the ebbs and flows of electoral governance may be demoralizing. Yet on every issue of greatest importance, we’re slowly and surely winning.
That is why — as saddening and maddening as Tuesday’s defeat is — it has the chance to be the best thing to happen for the durable success of a grassroots-driven, progressive and mainstream Democratic Party in the decade and beyond to come.
It’s why the work that needs to be done now — in terms of grassroots organization, new blood, passionate leadership and a message that resonates with common progressive values and people across the country is so important.
Our El Alamein is before us.
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El Alamein — what the hell are you talking about?
El Alamein. The battle that turned the tide once and for all in the desert, defeated Hitler’s Desert Fox (Erwin Rommel) and his vaunted Afrika Korps, and led towards the ultimate victory of the Allies. An above all else, a victory that was not possible if not for the defeats that preceded it, and a battle that was planned with a deep understanding and appreciation of the strategic and logistical realities of the situation.
We now confront an enticing series of opportunities that, with the right message and mobilization, stand to put us on a much stronger course for the future than otherwise would have been possible.
The underlying strategic context is more favourable to us than many think
Tuesday’s defeat was incredibly devastating. I get that. But we risk losing sight of the tremendous opportunity before us if we decide to “eat our own” or wallow in self-pity (as I mentioned earlier, I am confident that we are NOT going to do that).
That attitude ignores the fact that the GOP has TWICE been in the same situation (1992 and 2008) and in both cases, has found the opportunity to achieve stunning reverses in only 2 years.
The situation has perhaps never been so favourable for Democrats to achieve the same.
We have to be like Montgomery and the Allies in North Africa. They accurately recognized that for whatever talents or reputation the Desert Fox may have had, he couldn’t escape the realities of finite manpower and machinery, nor overstretched supply lines.
The GOP now finds itself in a similar position to the Afrika Korps — seemingly on the gates of Cairo and ultimate victory, but in actual fact stretched to breaking and facing a cornered and coiled viper, ready to strike.
Let me count the ways:
- On so many of our core issues — health care, education, entitlements, LGBTQ issues, women’s and minority rights, drug reform — Americans support progressive positions by large and growing margins.
- For the second time in less than 20 years, a Republican President was elected while losing the popular vote, in an election with low turnout, particularly among our base of support. The unfortunate effect of a campaign where both candidates had such poor approval ratings.
- Furthermore, the same President enters office with perhaps the most abysmal approval ratings of an incoming President — at or below 40% according to most sampling. He’s even not particularly liked by many who voted for him.
All of these are multiplied by the fact that the GOP controls the whole shebang. If Hillary were President, we’d be hanging on to the Executive branch and a do nothing Congress awaiting a drubbing in 2018. We’d be the ones overstretched. Now, it’s our opportunity to, like Montgomery, marshal the forces for a powerful counterstroke.
It will be ugly to begin with
Make no mistake. It’s going to be brutal, I’m sure. Plenty of folks here have articulated in better detail than I what stands to be lost and at risk for people across the country.
It’s going to be a hard fight, but Trump and his congressional quasi-cohorts offer Dems a unity of purpose all too lacking in recent years. We’re already seeing that with the alignment behind Keith Ellison (whatever the media or Howard Dean may think, this looks like a fait accompli). The progressives hold the floor, and they’ll be driving the message — an economy and society that works for the 99%, with no discrimination on race, colour, creed, gender or orientation.
And as many have said here — give them nothing. They bought it, let them deliver it. Own no element of their failed policies. Fight, delay, argue, contend and stand for the principles we believe in, even if they’re going down in flames. But don’t for one second believe that there is anything to be gained by trying to find compromise with them — with perhaps a few extreme examples. Mark up every nominee, every policy and amplify their choices. Make them hang themselves with their own extremism.
They control both chambers of Congress and the Presidency, but there’s is an unholy alliance. It is far less manageable than what Obama confronted from the Blue Dogs in 2008. There are personal hatreds, desires for vengeance layered on top of ideological incompatibilities. They will leak like a sieve, and they will spend more time tearing each other down than attacking Democrats. We must do everything to encourage them to do so. They won’t be able to help it. The knives are already out (what’s the over/under on the Priebus and Bannon kumbaya?)
2018: Stern Defense and Opportunities
What was shaping up to be a terrible year for Democrats in a 2018 mid-term under Hillary has now changed to a vital opportunity. In terms of the Senate, many “red state” (what does that even mean anymore) Dems will be up for re-election across a broad map. We might not be able to hold the line everywhere. But instead of having to run against a long-serving Democratic executive and an agitated GOP base, our Senators will be able to run on the record of Trump and an uninhibited GOP, which should prove to be much more to our favour.
More excitingly, House Republicans are almost certain to overreach even more dramatically than anything in the Senate. With so many seats still out of step with their GOP representatives due to the 2014 midterms and 2016 election, there should be many ripe opportunities to flip seats on account of a Democratic base out for blood. Perhaps not enough to turn the Chamber, but getting much closer towards 2020.
But that’s not the real opportunity of 2018. I instead direct you to this map:
Hmm...does red mean rosy?
That’s a lot of Republican Governorships.
A lot of retiring or term-limited Republican Governors as well. That’s all those light red ones.
A lot of Republican Governors in general (term-limited or not) with approval ratings that are underwater, as in under 45%.
States like Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. States like Georgia, Maine and New Mexico. Heck — even Kansas and Oklahoma.
I don’t care whether you’re observing electoral politics in New Zealand or Norway or New Jersey — executive governments (in particular) have lifespans. Figure about two terms being typical. You can beat those odds, but you won’t likely last much longer if you do. It’s just a fact of life — after about that much time, the voters are more often that not ready to be done with you. Especially if you’re already unpopular and perhaps influenced by ahem external factors (like I don’t know, a lunatic in the White House and a crazed, overreaching Congress?)
More often than not, an especially at the state level, the “throw the bums out” has a tendency to burn the state legislatures as well.
That’s the real prize, and a prize that was probably much more difficult to attain if Tuesday had gone the other way.
Changing these state executives, and their legislatures as well, means we’ll be strongly positioned ahead of 2020. A year where our voters will almost surely be howling, hopefully buttressed by a strong candidate with a clear progressive message and an unbending will to expose the lies and damage of Trumpism and his GOP cronies.
And that means we may be in a much better place to confront gerrymandering, restore fair representation, with a new generation of young, progressive leaders. Best of all, we don’t need to do it all in one shot. 2020 could be as fruitful as 2018.
It Starts Now
If we can take but a few moments away from self-flagellation, we may notice that Democrats in Washington aren’t embroiled in the same fight as we are here.
Bernie Sanders may have lost the primary, and we may have lost the election, but his ideas and energy will win the soul of the Democratic Party (and I say this as someone who would not have been counted among Bernie’s supporters in the Primaries).
Keith Ellison will be the DNC Chair. It is virtually a fait accompli at this point.
That means a message that returns to the roots of the Democratic Party and its commitment to economic and social justice for all Americans, whether they live in the rural Midwest, the suburbs of the Southwest, or the cities of the Northeast. A message underwritten by powerful grassroots organizing, and a people-powered party (not just election). A potent contrast to the con that is Trumpism.
I don’t mean to downplay the fight ahead or the loss we will face. There will be losses. Nor are the potential victories I suggest a certainty. They will take the investment of regular mothers and fathers, grandparents, workers, students and citizens across the country.
The American people, no matter the result on Tuesday, are with us. We will be there for them when the time comes — and that time is coming soon.
