Seymour Hersh has said in the Interview in Berkeley, featured in the recommended diary http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/12/17272/494 , that he talked to various diplomats of european countries and they keep saying that if Bush is reelected the EU will act on Palestine. And build a bloc opposed to the US policy.
Thinking about this I came to some interesting observations, what's probably going in the european cabinet rooms.
It's quite easy, if Bush is reelected it will be dangerous to be an ally of the United States, that's a conclusion nobody on this weblog will deny. The european governments have no chance of helping this government to succeed in Iraq since they ( the Bush people ) have shown that they are not able to act on military recommendations and their strategy is completely idiotic.
So what is the only way for Europe to protect itself ? Distance yourself from the US as fast as possible, don't be a target, remember we are not talking about some loony terrorists we are talking about the energy supply of the future.
Now the really interesting thing is, it's already happening, we just don't notice it.
The german cabinet is openly hostile to this US administration, best proof of that is still the former attorney general who compared Bush to Hitler. Of course she had to resign, but it's unlikely that in a country where 90% of the population share her sentiment to some degree, the cabinet thinks different.
Bush didn't even return Schröders phone calls for 6 months, because Schröder had so openly opposed the Iraq planning.
The French share all this sentiment, the new Spanish government is with them.
Now comes the interesting part, in Italy the public oppinion will force Berlusconi to withdraw his support for Bush, the two kidnapped aid workers have had some influence on this, the public opinion is that Berlusconi fucked up. And he will be facing a real challenge in the next election, a new united left party under the former PM and Chairman of the EU commission Prodi, he just can't stay with Bush on this, he would loose his small chance of being reelected ( which would mean that finally the attorneys could get their hands on him.... ).
In Britain, Tony Blair has changed his attitude a bit he is under pressure and the Iraq mess will the attacking point at least for the Libdems.
The UK government has announced that it will withdraw one third of its troops in November.
Why should they start withdrawing at this moment ?
Blair is not going to stay in this mess, if the Bush government is reelected Blair will withdraw the rest of the troops and blame the US for it.
In the last week, the EU has decided to open membership negotiations with Turkey.
There are many good arguments for it, but it's in some ways still a surprise how easy it went considering that Chiraq and some other PMs oppose it. But of course Turkey is an islamic country and Erdogan a moderate islamic prime minister.
The EU vehemently opposes most thing Israel did in the last time, supported by the US, like buliding the fence.
My prediction is the following, by the end of March there will be no european soldier left in Iraq, the EU will start using it's economic power to bring Israel and Palestine back to peace negotiations, with the help of Turkey the EU will try to show that they are not hostile to the islamic world. And they will integrate their military much faster than ever thought before.
It might sound nice in some parts, but it would mean the end of the traditional western alliance and that wouldn't be a good thing.
