Earmarks and Eskews

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Wednesday September 03, 2008 · 9:37 PM PDT

2008/09/03 · 21:37

Palin celebrates an earmark: from the archives of the Wasilla City Council, via the Washington Independent. In her handwriting: We did well!!! That’s three exclamation marks!!!

But wait! Those weren't earmarks, they were ourmarks. Totally different.

gogolagogo

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Sunday August 31, 2008 · 4:49 PM PDT

2008/08/31 · 16:49

I haven’t seen anyone calculate the odds of McCain’s lasting through his first term. What follows is a crude estimate using life tables from the Social Security administration. They do not take into account sex, class, and other relevant factors. The result is undoubtedly an overestimate, but it gives some sense of the magnitude of the probabilities we’re considering.

Probability of dying within the next year if you're 72:

.033

If you're 76:

.048

Odds of living through the four years from 72 to 76:
.857 (i.e. a 1 in 6 chance of not making it)
Odds of living through the eight years from 72 to 80:
.683 (i.e. a 1 in 3 chance of not making it)

The numbers for Obama:

4 years: 0.980
8 years: 0.954

The data are from 2003 Social Security tables, not broken down by sex or income or other relevant factors.

Addendum: I’m talking about conditional probabilities, of course. The probability of a President Palin given that Obama is elected is undoubtedly much smaller.

Etched in his mind

gogolagogo

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Sunday April 22, 2007 · 6:51 PM PDT

2007/04/22 · 18:51

This Ernie Kovacs sketch, “The Interview”, predates Alberto Gonzales’s testimony by more than forty years. Yet it eerily resembles Mr. Gonzales’s testimony before the Senate committee this week. Precognition? You be the judge! (From YouTube.)

The only difference is that Ernie Kovacs had the truth. If Senator Leahy, for example, had been in Kovacs’ position, he might have said something like:

GONZ: And so…
LEAHY: …after getting the go-ahead from…
GONZ: Yes, after getting the go-ahead from…
LEAHY: …from the President…
GONZ: [Vacantly stares into the distance]
LEAHY: Karl Rove sent you…
GONZ: Yes, he sent me…
LEAHY: …the list of attorneys to be fired.
GONZ: Yes, yes, I remember now. Just like it was yesterday…

Oh well. It could have happened.

Lunch counter comments from Ohio: not blue yet

gogolagogo

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Wednesday November 08, 2006 · 8:03 PM PST

2006/11/08 · 20:03

Joe R at Fundamental Truths offers a "lunch counter report" on the day after. His point: the "status quo" Republicans he talked with, if they voted for Democrats, did so because they thought the Republicans had become corrupt and needed to be voted out of office. They have not become Democrats. The whole thing is well worth reading.

As I analyze the numbers around the state, it appears that Ohio hasn't turned blue either. The corrupt were tossed, the rest were kept. Look at the congressional races, as of right now only Ney's district changed to a Democrat. Ohioans didn't vote against Bush, they didn't vote against the war, they didn't even vote to change Congress. They voted against corruption.

I haven't sat at a lunch counter lately, but I think that the same is true here in Missouri. Political orientations, and with them party identifications, don't change quickly. McCaskill won, but in the State Senate the Democrats gained just two seats and are still far from a majority. Read More

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Earmarks and Eskews

How likely is a President Palin?

Etched in his mind

Lunch counter comments from Ohio: not blue yet