As an Iowan and a very long time lurker, I feel moved to respond to the results of the Iowa caucuses.
Reading the commentary and watching the news, I am struck how poorly Americans understand basic concepts of statistics and measurement. It is all about picking a winner and a loser. Since there must be a certain winner and loser there is this unbelievable belief that we can manufacture human systems with 0 measurement error. The gods are laughing on Mount Olympus at the folly of us humans who think we can be gods ourselves and have certainty. Sorry, the Democratic Caucus results are well within the measurement error of the system. Talking about coin flips to break ties (tell me a better way — do you want to wait until a caucus attendee dies so you can break the tie?) and human error in the caucuses is about as useful as arguing about an instant reply in sports filmed from a bad angle. Unless there is evidence a systemic fraud, arguing about the error in counting in a particular precinct or a coin flip in another is arguing about the noise of the system. Even if the arguing achieves flipping the delegate count to Senator Sanders, it will not make it any more reliable or “fair.” All it would achieve is alienating Secretary Clinton’s supports who would now feel the count was unfair and the system was gamed against them. We are human and humans must deal with uncertainty. So according to the Iowa Democratic Committee, Secretary Clinton won the Iowa Caucus. Did she really win? I don’t know and with the measurement error we are dealing with I doubt anyone other the gods on Olympus will ever know.
This leads me to a request to Senator Sanders (for whom I stood up for Monday night) and his supporters. Secretary Clinton “won” Iowa. Let it go now. You want to part of a political revolution in this country. Arguing about Iowa is a distraction the oligarchy would be happy for you to be wasting time talking about resulting in a loss of focus on your message. I recommend the supporters of Senator Sanders watch Les Miserables at least 5 times. Revolution is neither glamorous or easy. There will be setbacks and disappointments. The is no magic to a revolution. It takes resolution and sustained hard work over years and decades. This fight with the oligarchy is just beginning. And always remember that those idealists on the barricade were expecting the support of the people and that support never came. Remember that before you say anything to a supporter of Secretary Clinton. At some point in the revolution you will need her supporters to come to your defense on the barricade. You can’t can’t afford to alienate them now. It is better to ignore them than to alienate them. If you do not like the Les Miserables analogy, just remember the Secretary Clinton supporter in Iowa who tried to get an Governor O’Malley supporter to join Secretary Clinton’s side by saying that Senator Sanders was too old to be President. One more caucus attendee for Senator Sanders! Please, we need each other in the fall.
To the supporters of Secretary Clinton, I would wish that you sit in front of a TV for 5 straight nights watching the complete night of news coverage of the 2014 midterm election. That is the election that gave Iowa Senator Ernst. How could Iowa replace Senator Harken with Senator Ernst? Simple. The Iowa Democratic Party and its nominee could not get their supporters to the polls. The status quo is not selling well these days. Competency is not a strong argument with the electorate. (Is there any comparison in the competency of Joni Ernst and Bruce Braley?) Just as Senator Sanders will need every single supporter of Secretary Clinton, she will also need every single supporter of Senator Sanders. So the challenge for Secretary Clinton and her supporters is how she can motivate Senator Sanders voters not to sit at home. If she takes their support for granted and assumes their fear of the Republican nominee will get them to the polls in sufficient numbers, 2016 will be very bad for the Democrats, the country and the world. Banking on the larger turnout due to a Presidential year means nothing if the voters are unmotivated. Republicans are very motivated. They want the White House! I have seen many Secretary Clinton supporters point to the 2016 Democratic caucus participation of 171,107 (186,874 for Republicans) compared to about 236,000 in 2008 as an indication of weakness of the appeal of Senator Sanders. By the same argument, Secretary Clinton did not generate the enthusiasm she needs to be a very strong of a candidate in the general. The turnout in Iowa should not make any Democrat comfortable and I hope pray the turnout increases in the primaries and caucuses ahead.
My best wishes to the supporters of both Senator Sanders and Secretary Clinton. May we and our candidates show the nation why the Democratic nominee for President should the the next President of the United States.
