"McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters"??

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Saturday September 13, 2008 · 9:29 PM PDT

2008/09/13 · 21:29

So a friend posted a link to this blog post over on the Freakonomics blog: McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters

He had mentioned at dinner that night that Senator McCain had, for the first time, traded at a higher price than Senator Obama was trading. I didn't think anything of it at the time. But then I got home and read the actual blog post.

Two things in the post set me off. One, was the title of the post - "McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters"; and, two, was a comment in the post - "This is news.".

I disagreed - vehemently - with both assertions.

InTrade is NOT "where it really matters". Where it "really matters" is the results in each individual state. Where it "really matters" is the electoral college. Where it "really matters" is the voters, and the ground game, and the debates, and fifty other things - but InTrade is definitely NOT where it matters.

lkh07

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Thursday October 05, 2006 · 9:24 AM PDT

2006/10/05 · 09:24

Haven't diaried in a while - too busy writing code - but I'm a daily lurker at several sites - D-Kos being one of the major ones - and I haven't seen anyone mention this site:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The site is run, amazingly enough, by a pretty famous guy in the world of Computer Science - Dr. Andrew S. Tanenbaum. Dr. Tanenbaum is the author of what can only be considered the seminal works on the subjects of Computer Networking and Operating Systems. Read More

What's worse than losing the War on Terror?

lkh07

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Friday May 05, 2006 · 1:59 PM PDT

2006/05/05 · 13:59

Apparently the possibility that Democrats win back the Senate. Read More

Illustration of how uninformed U.S. voters really are

lkh07

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 12:14 AM PDT

2004/10/19 · 00:14

I've always believed that my brethren here in the red states tend to be a little less well read than people in blue states (it's lonely here being the only blue state mind within fifty miles!!), but a poll taken in Tennesse by Middle Tennesse State University shows how sorely ill-informed most people really are. This poll illustrates what I believe to be a serious problem in our country - the fact that so many people here base their decisions on beliefs that are so different from reality.

I got this link from http://www.race2004.net/, which directed me to the entire MTSU poll.

But Tennesseans not all that issue savvy. A close look at five key domestic agenda items suggests that Tennesseans as a group hardly qualify as well-informed and ideologically consistent policy wonks. On four of the five issues, only about half of a given candidate's supporters hold opinions consistent with those of the candidate.

Many favor positions inconsistent with their candidate. Perhaps even more interestingly, sizable chunks of each candidate's supporters favor positions held by the opposing camp. And when quizzed about which candidates hold which positions on the five issues, Tennesseans score an average of only two right answers - about the same result one could get by merely guessing.

lkh07

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Saturday October 09, 2004 · 6:32 AM PDT

2004/10/09 · 06:32

In all the clamor over the debates we've lost some focus on the true target: winning the Electoral College. Obviously the state polls that come out around October 20th or 21st will supercede all the recent polls, but I was looking at the numbers anyway. They certainly look good for Senator Kerry.

The Wall Street Journal Online BATTLEGROUND STATES POLL

gives these numbers:

Senator Kerry 322

President Bush 216 Read More

This was Senator Kerry's best exchange of the night

lkh07

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Saturday October 09, 2004 · 1:57 AM PDT

2004/10/09 · 01:57

GIBSON: Mr. President, let's extend for a minute...

BUSH: Let me just -- I've got to answer this.

GIBSON: Exactly. And with Reservists being held on duty...

(CROSSTALK)

BUSH: Let me answer what he just said, about around the world.

GIBSON: Well, I want to get into the issue of the back-door draft...

BUSH: You tell Tony Blair we're going alone. Tell Tony Blair we're going alone. Tell Silvio Berlusconi we're going alone. Tell Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland we're going alone.

There are 30 countries there. It denigrates an alliance to say we're going alone, to discount their sacrifices. You cannot lead an alliance if you say, you know, you're going alone. And people listen. They're sacrificing with us.

GIBSON: Senator?

KERRY: Mr. President, countries are leaving the coalition, not joining. Eight countries have left it.

If Missouri, just given the number of people from Missouri who are in the military over there today, were a country, it would be the third largest country in the coalition, behind Great Britain and the United States.

That's not a grand coalition.

I think it probably resonated with Missourians, at the very least.

I know people and pundits are going to focus on the anger meme, but I really believe this accentuates the difference between the two candidates. Senator Kerry cut through the rhetoric to the heart of the matter: it's not much of a coalition when the 17th ranked state (in population) of the U.S. has sent more troops than all but one of your coalition countries has sent!

Voter Registration Deadline TODAY!!!!!

lkh07

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Monday October 04, 2004 · 6:23 AM PDT

2004/10/04 · 06:23

The registration deadline to vote is TODAY in many, many states. And others are coming up! If you live in these states, or have friends who live in these states (especially if they are going to vote for Senator Kerry) and you or they have not registered (although I KNOW the Kossacks have already registered!) - GET ON IT!!!!!

October 4th October 5th October 6th
(TODAY!!)

Arizona Illinois Missouri
Colorado New Mexico
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Arkansas
Michigan
New Jersey
Virginia
Washington

If your state isn't on the list you can check the deadline at this voter registration site!

(there were also quite a few states whose deadline was Saturday or Sunday - can anyone tell me if that means they push the deadline out to today (since most government offices are closed on Saturday and Sunday)?

Regardless let's GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!

Is Dick Morris so hard up for exposure.....

lkh07

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Friday October 01, 2004 · 5:19 PM PDT

2004/10/01 · 17:19

that he doesn't even bother with simple things like reality anymore?

Excerpts from his NY Post Op-Ed piece:

PRESIDENT Bush's positions on the issues aired in the debate last night are so sound and John Kerry's so contradictory that the Republican could not help but win the debate. But, despite the contradictions of his positions, Kerry showed Americans that he looks and acts like a commander-in-chief and someone we could trust with power.

...

So Bush could not but win the debate. Kerry has taken such awkward and obviously wrong positions that Bush had to emerge as last night's winner.

RSS

"McCain Pulls Ahead Where It Really Matters"??

Polling: Electoral-Vote.com has the House flipping for the first time

What's worse than losing the War on Terror?

Illustration of how uninformed U.S. voters really are

Zogby Electoral College K 322 B 216

This was Senator Kerry's best exchange of the night

Voter Registration Deadline TODAY!!!!!

Is Dick Morris so hard up for exposure.....