DKE Official Unofficial WI-Recall et. al. thread

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Tuesday June 05, 2012 · 5:44 PM PDT

2012/06/05 · 17:44

As is the custom, I thought we'd want a place to discuss the Wisconsin recall and the other elections tonight. I'll try to update as much as possible but I'll consider this more of an open thread than a minute-by-minute liveblog.

Link to AP county by county results (h/t to Whitty): http://hosted.ap.org/...

Interesting chart showing current performance compared to what Barrett needs to win (h/t Dave Wasserman): Long story short, not looking good right now. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

okiedem

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Saturday March 03, 2012 · 5:18 PM PST

2012/03/03 · 17:18

I thought we should have a place for discussion so I set this up. I have no illusions that I will be able to meet the standard set by James Allen but I will try to periodically update throughout the night.

For now it looks like Romney's running away with it and Santorum and Paul are battling for 2nd. However, most of urban Washington is out right now so I'd suspect Romney would gain, Paul would lose, and Santorum would tread water as more numbers come in, but we shall see.

You can follow along here.

http://www.cnn.com/...

okiedem

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Monday January 30, 2012 · 11:32 AM PST

2012/01/30 · 11:32

Constructing a baseline for Florida results presents much more difficult challenges than those posed by any state that has thus far gone to the polls.

In Iowa, in both 2008 and 2012, Mitt Romney was the less conservative establishment candidate who was up against a more conservative alternative whose base was found primarily among evangelicals (Huckabee in 2008, Santorum in 2012).

In New Hampshire in both 2008 and 2012, Romney was the more conservative, establishment candidate running against the more mavericky, left-leaning, and independent leaning alternative (McCain in 2008, Paul + Huntsman in 2012).

In South Carolina, Romney stepped into the shoes of McCain, finding his strongest support among moderates along the coast and in the Midlands, running against the more conservative alternative whose support was concentrated among evangelicals and very conservative voters (Huckabee in 2008, Gingrich in 2012).

Florida is altogether more difficult to evaluate.

Follow me over the jump for the analysis, or just click the below to go straight to the model

http://tinyurl.com/...

okiedem

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Monday October 24, 2011 · 9:54 PM PDT

2011/10/24 · 21:54

Even though New York Democrats do not have the trifecta, they are bargaining from a position of substantial strength and should be able to obtain a favorable map if they choose to angle for it. Republicans are currently clinging to a one seat majority in the Senate that cannot be sustained unless Governor Cuomo and the Assembly Democrats allow the Senate Republicans to concoct another extreme gerrymander to shore up their numbers. If Republicans don’t play ball, Democrats can settle for a court drawn map for one cycle before obtaining the Senate majority and creating their own gerrymander after the 2012 election. If this were to happen Democrats could easily create a 24-3 (or perhaps even better gerrymander).

see http://www.swingstateproject.com/... and http://www.swingstateproject.com/... for examples of very effective Democratic Gerrymanders, admittedly with a 28 seat map.

As such, Democrats have all the leverage in this process and should use it to their maximal advantage by demanding that both eliminated districts come from Republican incumbents and by generally seeking to move the needle towards the Dem direction elsewhere when possible. Although I don’t know whether NY Dems ultimately will angle for such changes, I have no doubt that they should.

Below is a general overview of what such a map would look like. Its partisan leans along the lines of a 19-2-6 and all Republican incumbents other than Turner and Hanna – whose districts are eliminated – retain enough of their current constituents that they should be able to retain their districts in the short term, likely yielding at 21-6 delegation as opposed to a 21-8 as it currently stands.

RSS

DKE Official Unofficial WI-Recall et. al. thread

DKE official unofficial Washington Caucus open thread

Constructing a FL-primary Baseline: The Enigmatic Sunshine State

Dems get tough: NY 21-6