I am a semi-regular listener of the NY Times’ “Ezra Klein Show” podcasts. I often find his podcasts provocative and informative. I have to say though I was personally surprised by the latest episode of the show. This one featured a spoken essay written by him, unlike most which are interviews. It has the title featured in my diary title, and features the image of Biden I used. While I am somewhat dismayed by it, for reasons that I will get into, I do not see Klein here at all as a “concern troll”. I think the piece comes from his heart as well as his mind. He makes an argument for Biden to make the very consequential decision to forgo the power of incumbency and drop out of the race at this late hour, leaving the selection of a candidate to the Democratic Convention this summer. Klein is obviously hoping, with the effort he put into this to get consideration by people in far higher stations than any I could hope to reach with my response. It is enough for me to hopefully get comments from the intelligent and thoughtful denizens of this blog, who I know come down on both sides of this issue. I will first summarize my main takeaways from the podcast, express my objections to his ideas, and describe what I would like to see in place of Klein’s strategy.
I highly recommend that you listen to the podcast yourself, it is only 25 minutes long. Here as I see it are the main points, for those who do not:
Klein admits Biden has successfully put in place many policies that have greatly benefitted Americans.
He admits that Biden has not made any missteps in governing attributable to his age.
He has not heard from anybody who regularly interacts with Biden about any concerns that he is not mentally up to the challenge of being President. I’ll chip in that I recently heard that includes Bibi Netanyahu, not currently a fan of the way Biden is challenging his policies, but who was asked about this by a reporter instead of about Gaza.
He says despite this that Biden is losing – no qualifiers there. He says that unlike for past Presidents, Biden’s approval rating does not budge no matter what happens in the world outside. He is not being given credit by the voters for any of his accomplishments. He says while Biden is fully capable of being President, he is no longer capable of campaigning for the office. He says this poses an unacceptable (to him) risk that Biden will lose an election that Trump cannot be allowed to win.
He claims that a Democratic Party that is too fixated on order, that gets too much into line and is afraid to shake things up, will not be nimble enough to conquer the problems we now face as a society.
His answer is that Joe Biden should drop out of the race, and the Democrats should select a new candidate at their convention. They should in fact use the convention to “organize victory” – a quote from William Seward’s nominating speech for Lincoln in 1860.
He does try to pre-emptively answer some obvious objections:
He says that we can’t assume there would be a backlash among Democrats if Kamala Harris is not chosen. First, she is very engagingly privately, even if that doesn’t always show publicly, and thus she could well win the nomination. Secondly, Democrats have an rich array of other strong candidates who could capture the excitement of all, and goes on to provide a long list.
He says that the media would cover this convention wall to wall. The excitement would be unimaginable in contrast to the Republicans choice of an old guy with huge amounts of baggage and no fresh ideas.
So now for my objections:
He essentially says that we need to rely on image not facts. He concedes that while Biden is always underestimated he believes these admittedly “stubborn” polls to be definitive. Klein however does not consider the equally stubborn fact that Democrats have outperformed by electorally very significant margins in every election since 2018. I myself would much rather win elections than come out ahead in polls.
Yes, I know some oldsters are also endlessly comparing Biden to themselves or relatives, saying he is too old. But I think most know that there is a wide variability in people’s mental capabilities as they age, and just because somebody walks with a stiff gate and talks somewhat slowly doesn’t mean they can’t be sharp as a whip when it counts.
A country where image counts far more than facts is perilously close to becoming one based on lies, which is where Trump will rapidly bring us. There is a column in the Times right now “Navalny Challenged Russians to Live ‘Not by Lies’” Lies are what allows Russians to be drafted, some literally kidnapped, to serve as cannon fodder for Putin’s war. Lies are what allowed the USSR, which fell soon after, to prioritize its image over protecting its citizens from deadly radiation at Chernobyl. We do not want to become a country that runs on lies.
There is a gamble in making a choice at the convention. These candidates will not be nearly as vetted as Biden. Also they have their own egos. Will they all support the ultimate choice in a show of unity? In the buildup towards the convention, there would be strong competition, and that means Democrats weakening each other as they compete. Republicans are masters at finding anything no matter how trivial, and using it to define someone. Hillary Clinton was a highly respected Secretary of State before their image machine was through with her. And after the convention there would be precious little time to effectively rebut their Fox demented Wurlitzer of disinformation.
We will also hear from the same media, if Harris isn’t nominated, all about the legions of disappointed women and minorities. But in a reprise of Hillary, we hear now that she just isn’t “likeable”. Klein thinks she could certainly defeat image over substance, but doesn’t think Biden can.
Finally , with Biden, we get 4 more years of a known, very successful quantity. If God forbid something happens, we get the remainder of the term served out by what Klein himself says is a highly capable Vice President. In the meantime, there will be time for a competition between what Klein calls a “Murderers Row” of highly capable candidates in the runup to 2028.
With Trump in office, I honestly believe that there is a significant possibility that we will have an 82 year old who will install himself for a third term. He would be even more highly motivated then to avoid jail time than he is now. And what would stop him? Not the military, whose upper echelons will be staffed with his choices, handpicked for blind obedience, and ready to quell protests with overwhelming force. Not his Supreme Court, which will be staffed by young replacements chosen by Trump to replace Thomas and Alito who will face massive pressure to resign if Trump regains office. Five justices will have been appointed by Trump. Not the Congress, which is already bending to his wishes even while he serves in no official position. This is the real possibility impatient young people need to seriously consider.
The alternative to Klein’s strategy? Biden directly confronts the age thing. He admits that he is not the most stirring campaigner. He promises to make more gaffes, but also that unlike Trump they will not be the kind that damage the country. He continues to reiterate that the reason he is running is that he strongly believes what is most needed now is somebody with experience both in pushing domestic legislation and in foreign policy, and one who demonstrated already that he knows how to beat Trump. That he is someone who will push middle of the road solutions that result in things actually getting done rather than just talked about. That he has proven that he could unite the broad swath of the Democratic party, even as that makes the fractured Republican party more desperately oppositional to him.
In other words – this is not an election over perfection – it is an election over the stakes. And if he is chosen, there will be another election in four short years, and in the meantime, all of the other candidates for that election can run decent campaigns, not participate in a last minute free-for-all.
I will wrap this up by putting forth the idea that if we follow Klein’s suggestion, we are playing on our opponent’s field. Klein by his own words is surrendering the idea that facts are more important than image and perception. But Democrats cannot ever win on those terms. The reason should be clearly evident. Republicans now lie with impunity about everything. There are too many lies to ever hold them to account – as a result they get a complete pass. Democrats do not get a pass, and even if we did, we would never consider stooping to this level. Because of the freedom to lie, Republicans will always tell a better, more attractive story than we ever can. Once you concede that it is all about image, just having a younger candidate is not nearly enough to defeat this. They can portray every issue as black and white, based on their fantastical claims, while Democrats have to delve into the complexities of each.
The need for us to win by making facts important again was dramatically illustrated by another audio opinion piece in the Times today, headlined “The Big Issue Hurting Joe Biden with Independents.” It contains interviews with a focus group conducted by Patrick Healy, the Deputy Editor of NYT Opinion. I will skip some of the most mind boggling comments, including one from someone who believes that Trump’s permission structure caused her family to be hounded out of a restaurant for the crime of speaking in Spanish, but nevertheless plans to vote for him. Skipping all the way to Healy’s closing comment on the “Big Issue” referred to in the headline:
The question now is how can President Biden… win back enough of these independent voters…especially those like in our focus group who are so concerned about the economy, and they hear President Biden talking about…how the economy is back and they don’t see that playing out in their own lives.
Now, while the economy is not perfect, taking into account a combination of key measures including job creation, unemployment, economic growth, and yes, inflation we presently have the best economy in the entire world. To me Klein would be much better off working with his Deputy Editor to reflect on how is it that they, as demonstrated in their own opinion pieces, are abject failures at living up to one of the most critical responsibilities of the Fourth Estate, which is to help produce a well-informed electorate?
