We are 28 months away from the 2016 Presidential Elections and I am predicting the 2016 Presidential winner?
Not quite. This diary is to support the obvious answer to the biggest question of the 2016 Presidential campaign, "Will Hillary Clinton run for U.S. President?". Most people assume yes, but the data shows that she will not only run but will win.
Didn't we see this story before in 2006? Yes, before the 2008 Presidential Election!
In June/July 2006, political experts and junkies, like me, were saying similar things about Senator Clinton and her presidential chances.
But the polling data is not the same in 2014 as it was in 2006.
In the Summer of 2006, Senator Clinton was leading the Democratic field by 20 points but was under 50%. The Gallup 2006 Poll shows her with a 20 point lead in June 2006.
Democrats say who they support;
June 2006 Gallup Poll
Hillary Clinton 36%
Al Gore 16%
Edwards 12%
Kerry 11%
But an NBC News article suggests many early causus voters wanted an alternative. At just 36%, there was room (64% of Democrats) for a alternative candidate.
This time around her poll numbers are different. The Real Clear Politics average poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 50+ point lead and over 50%. Heck, over 60%.
July 2014 RCP Average Poll
Hillary Clinton 65%
Joe Biden 11.7%
Elizabeth Warren 7%
Mario Cuomo 2.8%
In the early 2008 primaries, she stumbled and that gave Senator Obama the opening to become that alternative, which he would not relinquish. He ran a smarter campaign and even though Senator Clinton regained her footing, she could not mathematically catch Senator Obama, despite her strong wins in larger states, later in the primary.
I doubt she will make that mistake again. Even if she does stumble again, the polls indicate she has much more room to operate. Let's review the polling data from first two state primaries in 2006 and 2014.
In Iowa, Senator Clinton was behind Senator Edwards by 4 points in June 2006, with just over a quarter of the vote.
Iowa June 2006 CBS News Poll
John Edwards 30%
Hillary Clinton 26%
John Kerry 12%
Tom Vilsack 10%
Currently, Hillary Clinton is 53 point ahead of Vice President Biden and well over 50%. Unlike June 2004, she does not need to convince voters, she just needs to keep her existing voters.
Iowa July 2014 RCP Average Polling
Hillary Clinton 64.3%
Joe Biden 11.7%
Elizabeth Warren 11.0%
Mario Cuomo 2.3%
New Hampshire is similar to Iowa. In July 2006, polling indicated Senator Clinton had just 30% of the vote. Now she has 64% of the vote with a 53 point lead. Again, she does not need to garner new votes, just keep her existing voters under her big tent.
New Hampshire July 2006 WMUR/UNH
Hillary Clinton 30%
John Edwards 16%
Joe Biden 5%
New Hampshire July 2014 RCP Average Polling
Hillary Clinton 64%
Joe Biden 10%
Elizabeth Warren 9.7%
Mario Cuomo 3.0%
She has the largest lead ever recorded in the Democratic race. At 64+%, there is very little room to her right or left, to mount a challenge.
So why would she not run. I am sure they have this data. The only problem I see is complacency. Senator Clinton was a better campaigner going into the Democratic Convention than the Democratic primaries. A cakewalk to the nomination could weaken her skills going into the campaign against the Republican challenger.
But then again, the current polling data, even 28 months away from November 2016, indicates an "easy" road to the White House.
Lets start with the Electoral Results from the 2012 election.
President Obama 332 Electoral Votes (EV)
Governor Romney 206 EV
Looking at the states (26 plus D.C.) President Obama won, which of those states have a chance of turning red? Below is the list of states won by President Obama in 2012, the EV number is in parentheses, followed by the President's margin of victory.
Florida (29) +1
Ohio (18) +2
Virginia (13) +3
Colorado (9) +4
Pennsylvania (20) +5
Iowa (6) +6
New Hampshire (4) +6
Nevada (6) +6
Wisconsin (10) +7
Minnesota (10) +8
Michigan (16) +9
New Mexico (5) +10
Oregon (7) +11
Washington (12) +14
Maine (4) +15
Illinois (20) +16
New Jersey (14) +17
Connecticut (7) +18
Delaware (3) +19
California (55) +21
Massachusetts (11) +23
Maryland (10) +25
Rhode Island (4) +27
Vermont (3) +36
New York (29) +27
Hawaii (4) +43
District of Columbia (3) +84
Lets start with the six (6) states in which Obama had the narrowest victory. In five of those states, there were Republican Governors in 2012 which did not help President Obama. By 2016, five of those states could have Democratic Governors. PA, VA, FL have already or look likely to switch to a Democratic Governor.
So, again I ask, which blue state will turn red? Remember enough states must switch to move a minimum total of 64 EV into the Republican column.
Lets look at the seven (7) states with the narrowest Obama win margins. Current polling that compares Hillary Clinton against the main Republican challengers shows that only Colorado is close. In Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania she has leads over 10% while Ohio, New Hampshire and Iowa are in the mid single digits. Below are the seven states with Clintons average lead and average overall vote percentage. This data is from Real Politics Presidential 2016 Polling Page)
Florida +14 52% Quinnipiac 7-24-14
Ohio +8.7 48% Quinnipiac 5-3-14
Virginia +10 46% Roanoke College 7-2014
Colorado+1.5 43% Quinnipiac 7-17-14
Pennylvania +12.2 49.6% Quinnipiac 6-5-14
Iowa +6.5 47% NBC/Marist Poll 7-2014
New Hamshire +6.6 47% NBC/Marist Poll 7-2014
In the meanwhile, there are a few 2012 red states in which Hillary Clinton is polling well. The top red state is North Carolina with 15 EV. President Obama lost this state by 3 points. Hillary Clinton is ahead an average of 2.75 points with 45.5% of the registered voters.
So not only does the Republican nominee have to capture some Obama blue states, but he or she must hold on the some red states like North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, Indiana, Arizona and Louisiana.
Depending on who the Vice President is, more red states could be in play.
I know that currently their relationship is strained, but Governor Richardson of New Mexico could help the ticket in Arizona and sure up the Latino vote.
Not only does the Electoral College appear to show a straight and relatively easy road to the White House, but so does the national polling of Hillary Clinton versus Republican challengers.
On May 22, 2006, Fox News provided the following polling date:
Clinton 46 McCain 42
Clinton 40 Giuliani 49
On July 28, 2014, Fox News provided the following polling data:
Clinton 52 Bush 39
Clinton 52 Paul 41
Clinton 50 Christie 40
At this point in 2006, Hillary Clinton was under 50% and losing by 9 point to Giuliani. This highlights her weakness discussed earlier in this diary. Today, she is at or over 50% against the "moderate" Republicans.
If you question Fox News(?), like I do, then look at the polls below.
In August 2006, Siena College's Research Institute had the following poll numbers:
Clinton 42 McCain 46
Clinton 42 Giuliani 48
On July 8, 2014, Quinnipiac provided the following polling numbers:
Clinton 48 Bush 41
Clinton 49 Paul 40
Clinton 47 Christie 38
Clinton 48 Ryan 41
Clinton 49 Huckabee 40
Using Sienna and Quinnipiac polling for 2006 and 2014, you get similar results. Sienna had Senator Clinton losing to both Republican challengers in 2006. Quinnipiac has Hillary Clinton up by 7 to 9 points against five possible challengers and she is within the margin of error of 50%.
Not only is Hillary in a much stronger position this time around at this stage of the primary season but she is in a much strong position for the general election.
Mike Lux's recent article is right, complacency and inevitability could upend Hillary Clinton's march to the White House.
However, at this point in the 2016 Presidential Campaign, the current data show that Hillary Clinton will run and will win.
What do you think?
