GA-Pres tight race by early voting stats

phillyneurodoc

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Wednesday October 29, 2008 · 2:21 PM PDT

2008/10/29 · 14:21

I'm hoping that Georgia turns blue on election night, but here's some evidence to support my insane dream.

I've been peeking every morning at the early voting tallies for Georgia, and the constant high percentage of African-American voters (35%) gets me thinking that the presidential race is actually quite close. Fortunately, the Research 2000 crosstabs from 9/29-10/1 and 10/14-15 are available to confirm my wild speculation.

By my calculations, if the actual electorate is similar in demographics to the early vote (and that's a big IF), the result from the earlier polls is a tied race:

Obama (D) 46 (46)
McCain (R) 46 (46)

There's more . . .

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