66 percent of experts disagree with surge

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Thursday February 15, 2007 · 8:02 AM PST

2007/02/15 · 08:02

That's one of the more interesting finding of The Terrorism Index, a joint effort by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress to survey terrorism and foreign policy experts, both lefty and righty, on the GWOT (are we still calling it that?).

Actually, 69 percent of the experts would like to see a surge of troops in Afghanistan, something that may be in the works already. Did you know that the number of U.S. troops there is up to 27,000 now? That place is quickly going to hell in a handbasket. 57 percent of the experts think the Taliban is getting stronger.

Other interesting findings after the jump:

Poll

27 votes Show Results

Is the U.S. winning the war on terror?

27 votes Vote Now!

Is the U.S. winning the war on terror?

Yes

1 vote

25 votes

Don't know

1 vote

Fisking Joel Mowbray

praktike

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Sunday October 24, 2004 · 7:50 PM PDT

2004/10/24 · 19:50

Any Kosmopolitans up to the fun task of discrediting Redstate.org's new super awesome reporter, Joel Mowbray of the highly respected Washington Times?

Because a look back at his record provides plenty of opportunities.

For instance, take this Townhall gem:

It's not exactly as if Saddam's Iraq was a weapons-free zone. Halfway through his team's search, Kay had already found substantial evidence of WMD-related programs and believed he would uncover hard "proof." [...]

Even in a world of uncertain intelligence--probably a permanent reality until God decides to spy for us--a president's job is to guard against the worst potential scenarios. Right up until the war, Saddam was developing WMDs, the intelligence community thought he had stockpiles, and history shows that he has used them.

praktike

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Wednesday October 20, 2004 · 2:17 PM PDT

2004/10/20 · 14:17

Update [2004-10-20 18:28:2 by praktike]: changed to reflect the fact that I'm not an asshole or a troll. My apologies. It's just that I warned about this a while ago, and was ridiculed for it then. It cost me my trusted user priviliges for a day or so. TAPPED worries that Black voters may be breaking towards Bush.

The proximate issue seems to be gay marriage, but I think it's more than that. Kerry simply doesn't connect with black voters on the same emotional level that Clinton and even Gore did. I guess there's little that can be done about this, but there you have it.

It doesn't seem like Ruy Texeiria is paying attention to this issue.

Is the Kerry campaign?

Wrong George in Charge

praktike

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Tuesday October 19, 2004 · 2:37 PM PDT

2004/10/19 · 14:37

In the latest New Yorker, we learn that George Soros is in fact a proud member of the Reality-Based Community:

In May, 2003, Bush had what seemed like intimidatingly high popularity ratings, and there was overwhelming public support for the war. But Soros had one of his anticipatory hunches that the President’s support was a bubble that could burst. Moreover, he had the ego and the audacity to think that he could pop it. He commissioned two political researchers, Mark Steitz and Tom Novick, to determine whether it would be possible for Soros himself to exert political impact.

The following July, Soros invited a group of top Democratic activists to join him in the salmon-colored drawing room at El Mirador, his weekend estate in Southampton, Long Island, for the presentation of the consultants’ report. Steitz and Novick indicated that the 2004 election would probably be very close. The electorate was polarized, with only ten per cent of likely voters undecided. The best strategy, they said, would be to mobilize the Democratic base and persuade undecided voters with a state-of-the-art field operation. The plan was projected to cost at least seventy-five million dollars. As the researchers gave their presentation, Steitz recalled, “Soros was very engrossed. He leaned forward when we were talking about getting out the vote, and asked, ‘You mean you actually go door to door?’ All the practical aspects caught his imagination.”

Under the new campaign-finance law, supporters could no longer give unlimited funds directly to the Democratic Party—but according to the consultants’ interpretation of the law they could funnel private contributions into allied “independent” groups. As the discussion proceeded, it was proposed that Soros provide enough funds to these groups to pay for field operations in six or seven of the seventeen states that were expected to be the most contested. Soros, Steitz recalled, insisted that funds be offered for all seventeen. “He said, ‘I don’t want to build half a bridge! I want to do what’s necessary to effect the outcome!’”

Aha. So he wondered if he could have an impact, and then commissioned an expert study to find out whether that was true, and, if so, what was the best way to do it. He didn't just trust his "gut."

Incidentally, it just so happens that two Yale political scientists (who, by the way, are top-notch in their field) have just published a book examing the effectiveness of various approaches to organizing electoral campaigns.

Here's what they concluded:

Door-to-door canvassing, though expensive, yields the most votes. As a rule of thumb, one additional vote is cast from each 14 people contacted. That works out to somewhere between $7 and $19 a vote, depending on the pay of canvassers - not much different from the cost of that three-pack of underwear. Canvassers who matched the ethnic profile of their assigned neighborhoods were more successful.

Too bad the wrong George was in charge of postwar planning for Iraq.

Oil For Condi

praktike

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Monday October 11, 2004 · 6:59 PM PDT

2004/10/11 · 18:59

The names of the American companies that had been blacked out in the Duelfer Report have been leaked:

Major American oil companies and a Texas oil investor were among those who received lucrative vouchers that enabled them to buy Iraqi oil under the U.N. oil-for-food program, according to a report prepared by the chief arms inspector for the CIA.

The 918-page report says that four American oil companies - Chevron, Mobil, Texaco and Bay Oil - and three individuals, including Oscar S. Wyatt Jr. of Houston, were given vouchers and got 111 million barrels of oil between them from 1996 to 2003. The vouchers allowed them to profit by selling the oil or the right to trade it.

The other individuals, whose names appeared on a secret list maintained by the former Iraqi government, were Samir Vincent of Annandale, Va., and Shakir Al-Khafaji of West Bloomfield, Mich., according to the report by the inspector, Charles A. Duelfer.

The fact that these companies and individuals received oil from Iraq does not mean that they did anything illegal, experts on the program said.

Chevron has been subpoenaed by "a federal grand jury in New York, which is investigating 'transactions in oil of Iraqi origin.'"

Troubling.

So guess who may have been involved in undermining the sanctions program, which I suppose is our latest casus belli?

That's right, your National Security Advisor, Condi Rice, who was a Director at Chevron from 1991 to 2001. Chevron liked her so much, they even named an oil tanker after her. Did the Condoleezza Rice carry Saddam's dirty oil?

Another question in my mind is, did Chevron pay any kickbacks to Saddam? What did Condi Rice know, and when did she know it? Why did the public version of the Duelfer Report cover up Chevron's name?

The American people demand answers.

How Iraqis Really Feel

praktike

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Friday October 01, 2004 · 9:39 AM PDT

2004/10/01 · 09:39

Iraq Travel Advisory

praktike

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Wednesday September 08, 2004 · 9:58 AM PDT

2004/09/08 · 09:58

Just in case you were thinking of visiting:

This Travel Warning updates information on the continuing dangerous security situation in Iraq following the transfer of governing authority to the Interim Iraqi Government on June 28, 2004. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was established on the same day. The security threat to all American citizens in Iraq remains extremely high, with a high risk of attacks on civilians. International organizations have reduced their staff in Iraq as a result of attacks, bombings and threats to civil aviation. This supersedes the Travel Warning of June 25, 2004.
The Department of State continues to strongly warn U.S. citizens against travel to Iraq, which remains very dangerous. Remnants of the former Baath regime, transnational terrorists, and criminal elements remain active. Attacks against military and civilian targets throughout Iraq continue. Targets include hotels, restaurants, police stations, checkpoints, foreign diplomatic missions, and international organizations and other locations with expatriate personnel. These attacks have resulted in deaths and injuries of American citizens, including those doing humanitarian work. There is credible information that terrorists have targeted civil aviation. In addition, there have been planned and random killings, as well as extortions and kidnappings. Military operations continue. There are daily attacks against Multinational Forces - Iraq (MNF-I) throughout the country.
All vehicular travel in Iraq is extremely dangerous. There have been numerous attacks on civilian vehicles, as well as military convoys. Attacks occur throughout the day, but travel at night is exceptionally dangerous. Travel in or through Ramadi and Fallujah, travel between al-Hillah and Baghdad, and travel between the International Zone and Baghdad International Airport is particularly dangerous. Occasionally, U.S. Government personnel are prohibited from traveling to select areas depending on prevailing security conditions. There continues to be heavy use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and/or mines on roads, particularly in plastic bags, soda cans, and dead animals. Grenades and explosives have been thrown into vehicles from overpasses, particularly in crowded areas. Travel should be undertaken only when absolutely necessary and with the appropriate security.

Darn that liberal media!

Spy: Rhode or Franklin

praktike

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Friday August 27, 2004 · 7:44 PM PDT

2004/08/27 · 19:44

Here's why:

The Pentagon analyst who officials said is under suspicion was one of two department officials who traveled to Paris for a secret meeting with Manucher Ghorbanifar, an Iranian arms dealer who had been a central figure in the Iran-contra affair.

And:

In a NEWSWEEK interview in Paris last month, Ghorbanifar, a former Iranian spy who helped launch the Iran-contra affair, says one of the things he discussed with Defense officials Harold Rhode and Larry Franklin at meetings in Rome in December 2001 (and in Paris last June with only Rhode) was regime change in Iran.

Start your Googling engines!!!

About Ginsberg and the SBVT

praktike

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Friday August 27, 2004 · 6:37 AM PDT

2004/08/27 · 06:37

Here's a question that doesn't seem to have been asked about Bush campaign, SBVT, and Progress Fund lawyer David Ginsberg: what, exactly, was he up to?

Now, as it's been framed, Ginsberg is one of the few guys who does this kind of thing: election law compliance. He was just trying to help those nice friendly guys do the right thing.

But far more likely, in my mind, is that Ginsberg's role was to dot the i's and cross the t's so that BC04 and SBVT could coordinate without technically violating any laws.

What do you guys think?

Bush DUI: Start your engines

praktike

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Tuesday August 24, 2004 · 2:03 PM PDT

2004/08/24 · 14:03

Edward Lazarus over at FindLaw makes an excellent point:

But the darkest cloud looming over Bush's head -- one which may long post-date the campaign -- is whether Bush lied about his criminal record in any sworn documents, such as insurance forms or business license applications, to name two of many possibilities. No doubt, as the press exhausts its interviews with the source for the DUI story, they will descend on this angle next. I can already envision the first special prosecution of a Bush Administration.

If I were George W. Bush, I would be quaking in my boots right now.

Team Kerry does not play nice, and the print media is furious over the SBVT campaign.

Bring it on.

Theoria's Worst Nightmare

praktike

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Tuesday August 24, 2004 · 7:45 AM PDT

2004/08/24 · 07:45

Michelle Goldberg has the scoop on the anarcho-shenanigans in store for the RNC in New York.

I'm a little concerned.

This kind of childishness seems guaranteed to backfire to John Kerry's detriment:

"We want to make their stay here as miserable as possible," says Moran, who has sandy hair, a snub nose and a goatee. The son of a retired Queens cop, he's 30 but looks younger. "I'd like to see all the Republican events - teas, backslapping lunches - disrupted. I'd like to see people from other states following their delegates, letting them know what they think about Republican policies. I'd like to see impromptu street parties and marches. I'd like to see corporations involved in the Iraq reconstruction get targeted - anything from occupation to property destruction."

Yeah.

Property destruction. That'll change some minds.

Not.

It's these kinds of morons that make it nearly impossible to have a peaceful demonstration anymore.

Iraq Rebukes Halliburton Subsidiary

praktike

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Saturday August 21, 2004 · 9:41 PM PDT

2004/08/21 · 21:41

Whoops!

Iraqi oil experts on Saturday rebuked an American firm helping rehabilitate Iraq's oil industry, saying it had failed to do an adequate job in the vital sector, The Associated Press reported from Amman, Jordan. Kellogg Brown & Root, which was contracted through the United States Department of Defense, "has not done an excellent job, it has not done a good job at all," said Mohammed Aboush, a former director general of the Iraqi Oil Ministry.

"We have attended several meetings with the firm and set up priorities for work, but we had only schedules and promises, many of them did not materialize," added Mr. Aboush, who said he quit his job with the ministry two months ago. He declined to discuss details. Mustafa al-Bazergan, an Iraqi oil expert, said the United States allocated $809 million through Kellogg Brown & Root - which is based in Houston - for rebuilding Iraqi oil installations and rehabilitating the oil industry.

"But very little was achieved, less than 10 percent," he said. Kellogg Brown & Root is a subsidiary of the Halliburton Company, which has been awarded more than $6 billion in contracts related to the American-led invasion of Iraq, but the company has been under fire for allegedly overcharging the government.

Henry Waxman, call your office.

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