14 inches

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Wednesday November 05, 2008 · 5:44 AM PST

2008/11/05 · 05:44

I'm not sure I how this is going to turn out. My ability to write this is not real good at the moment. I'm sorry this is short.

The day after the election in 2004, a good friend who works in England, emailed me the following:

"The whole world is laughing at you. You people are fools."

sprhoto

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Thursday October 30, 2008 · 8:02 AM PDT

2008/10/30 · 08:02

Sorry guys. I need to write this.

In college, I had a close friend. We'll call him Todd. We were tight - in today's vernacular, he was 'my boy'. We roomed together the last two years of college. He was the best man at my wedding.

In college, he was a bit of a dittohead. I was always very liberal. He ended up being an accountant, I ended up with a degree in Biology and Envionmental Science.

The dittohead part at the time was funny - we argued about politics, he always lost (so much so people made fun of him for it), but I always thought it was a phase - that somehow he'd wake up one day and see the world as I did. Boy was I wrong.

sprhoto

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Friday October 10, 2008 · 6:16 PM PDT

2008/10/10 · 18:16

I grew up in Pittsburgh. After college, I went on a 10 year journey with my wife through the deep south to complete my graduate degree, and begin my career.

We returned in 2005, for many reasons (grandparents, better job, etc.), but one of the main ones for me was so that my children would not grow up in the racism that seemed to permeate the rural communities that we lived in at the time.

McCain has driven this country to a place that I can fail to describe. I will only say that this election is a battle for nothing less than the soul of this country.

sprhoto

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Monday September 01, 2008 · 8:50 AM PDT

2008/09/01 · 08:50

I love my Dad. Sometimes I hate my Dad.

Some background:

My stepdad is my hero. He married my mom when I was in high school. He is everything that I believe is good, and important, about Southwestern PA - his life is not flashy, but consists of hard work over a 40 year span at Westinghouse.

His story is not unlike a lot of folks around PA - he worked hard for a long time, his company promised a job for life, the company went south, he got bought out and layed off, and his pension fell through. I meet him right at the end of the good times, as he dated and married my mom (they were high school sweethearts). Shortly after they married, he dropped his motorcycle, breaking his ankle in the process - but the X-rays and tests that followed reported worse news - he had an aggressive, late blooming type of MS.

sprhoto

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Tuesday May 06, 2008 · 5:37 AM PDT

2008/05/06 · 05:37

But, he does show something really interesting. The race in both IN and NC breaking to Obama:

Zogby tracking poll

More after the break...

sprhoto

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Wednesday November 03, 2004 · 2:10 PM PST

2004/11/03 · 14:10

I'm a relative newcomer here, and to be blunt, I was a fair weather fan, a closet liberal. I showed up in this universe on April, walked around, talked to some folks, liked the neighborhood, decided to rent an apartment.

I saw my life in Kos, and more to the reality based community, as almost a marriage of convenience. I've been independent all my life, and really never saw much difference between Republicans and Democrats. I saw (and see) Bush as the head of a theocracy that threatened the very fabric of what is left of America, and although 'jumping into bed' with liberal Democrats seemed odd, it initially was a means to an end. Bush had to go, and if I had to be here and volunteer and contribute to the democrats to do it, I would. But in time, I starting using 'we' and 'us' to describe Kos. I started to believe.

At 1:30 last night, knowing what was going to happen, I cried myself to sleep, and told myself I would drop Kos and this environment, and tune out like I had done prior to this election. I was going back in the closet. After all, it didn't really matter, right? right? Read More

A hater of polls finds a good polling site

sprhoto

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Sunday October 17, 2004 · 6:45 AM PDT

2004/10/17 · 06:45

I hate polls. I mean hate em. Misunderstood. Poorly explained. Us up by 10? Them up by 10? Doesn't matter. The news media neither understands, nor cares to, what all these data points mean. When Mark Shields JUST NOW starts talking about the 50% rule, you know they are clueless. Just when I thought the only two good places for polling info were MyDD and Rising Donkey, I found this site:

2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions

It takes the polling data from 2004k.com and runs multiple simulations against the data, and then looks for changes in the normalization of the runs. Per the site: "Polls report only imprecise information about the electorate's opinion. Using simple statistical techniques, however, it is possible to use the poll results together with the reported margin of error to compute the probability that the at least 50% of the population is in favor of one candidate. I compute this probability in each state, and use it to simulate several electoral college outcomes. Then, I compute the fraction of elections won by each candidate and other summary statistics." Its very well done, and as somebody who is loath to worry about polls, I look at it every day.

Take a look at the trend lines. Real statistics summarize reality pretty well: Its close, but we are now slightly better than even money to win. Keep fighting.

No trouble with the environment. Ignore the monster fish. Move along...

sprhoto

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Friday October 15, 2004 · 11:45 AM PDT

2004/10/15 · 11:45

In a former life, I was a physiological ecologist. I dealt with plants, so marine issues are a bit foreign, but I remember the fear on the marine ecologists' faces discussing the day when this thing would show up in the great lakes. 'The complete destruction of the great lakes ecosystem' was a common phrase. People I respect think this is a scary, scary thing. Reason number 1,678,987 I'm voting for Kerry.

Frankenfish in Lake Michigan

Sweet Jesus People, Calm Down

sprhoto

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Friday October 15, 2004 · 4:56 AM PDT

2004/10/15 · 04:56

Look, I'm a newbie here. But let me make a couple of points:

The Mary Cheney stuff - enough already. Talk about overblowing the situation. Sheesh.
If a poll (Zogby) shows a Bush lead, you know what that means? NOT A DAMN THING. The data point that had Kerry up by 3 earlier in the week dropped off the three day moving average this morning. ABC/WP had Bush up by 3 ON ELECTION DAY last time. Polls, are by their very design, inaccurate. They are just a very small part in a much larger story.

Do not relax. Just out work these guys. Trust in your beliefs. Remember, we've got the truth on our side, and thats a powerful ally. Nobody said this would be easy. I'll now head back to my hole :)

What a headline

sprhoto

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Thursday October 14, 2004 · 10:38 AM PDT

2004/10/14 · 10:38

The article isn't as good as you would think, but its all over Yahoo right now. Oh, and freep the poll.

Yahoo! News - Bush Official: Debates Gave Lift to Kerry

Which war are we fighting?

sprhoto

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Wednesday October 13, 2004 · 6:45 AM PDT

2004/10/13 · 06:45

I walked into my house the other day, and my wife asked me 'I wonder if this is what 1968 felt like.' With all the Vietnam references to Iraq recently, I started to wonder if the similarities were true. Then it hit me. We may be reliving Vietnam, but we are still fighting the civil war. Read More

My Voting Block

sprhoto

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Monday October 11, 2004 · 10:14 AM PDT

2004/10/11 · 10:14

In 2000, I was just into a new job, and really didn't care at all about politics.

In 2000, I believed Al Gore was a lying putz.

In 2000, my wife quite literally took me by my ear to the polling place, where, out of frustration, I voted for Nader.

In 2000, I thought there was no difference between Gore and Bush.

What happened?
My hypothesis is this: I represent a group of voters who either did not exist in 2000 or didn't care, and are voting Kerry. Read More

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14 inches

I Believe

In case you missed the importance

"They think you're stupid."

I know, I know, its Zogby

Here to Stay

A hater of polls finds a good polling site

No trouble with the environment. Ignore the monster fish. Move along...

Sweet Jesus People, Calm Down

What a headline

Which war are we fighting?

My Voting Block