I’m going to keep this diary short and bitter.
There seems to be a prevailing feeling around here that the 2020 election is likely to go well for us. “Any of our candidates can win”, “The polls look great for us,” “Trump is so screwed/scared/whatever” are all things (paraphrased) that I read here constantly.
People honestly seem to believe we are polling well. They believe that Trump’s approval numbers are low. I think this is because of all of the very positive front page diaries. Positivity is great. Excess positivity simply creates a bubble..
We are not polling well. Trump’s approval numbers are not low. Our candidates are polling worse than Hillary Clinton was 4 years ago. Our strongest candidate, Biden, is only polling slightly better than Clinton’s aggregate polling the day of the 2016 election. Clinton lost. Tump’s approval numbers have improved over the medium term and since the beginning of impeachment.
None of our candidates have really been attacked yet. Some are as untouched as the surface of Mars by human boots. Hundreds of millions of dollars of attack adds have not been run against them. The Russians haven’t jumped in. Comey hasn’t said “boo”. Trump has not yet begun to fight. And we’re polling at a mere 4% over Trump, at best. Based upon that, if the election was held today, the electoral college might go against us. One of our top 4 candidates doesn’t even beat Trump in the aggregate.
The headwinds of history are heavily against us. Incumbents rarely lose in Presidential elections. No Democrat even approaching the age of our top two candidates has ever been elected. No incumbent has lost when the unemployment rate is falling (there is still time for it to turn around but the unemployment rate is at rock bottom).
Trump is not weak. Trump is not stupid (at campaigning). One by one Trump picked off every single one of his primary opponents in 2016. He beat one of the most experienced and respected people to ever run for President. He has survived longer than virtually anyone else in his administration. He has beaten the media, destroyed political and governing norms and is currently fighting off an attempt by some very shrewd and experienced politicians to rein him in, and seemingly growing stronger as it happens.
2020 will be close, at best. Going into it with false confidence will only lead to heartache (there might be heartache anyway). We need clear eyes and clear thinking.
www.realclearpolitics.com/… 2016 Head to Head
www.realclearpolitics.com/… Our strongest candidates’ 2020 head to head
www.realclearpolitics.com/… Trumps approval rating