On Thursday Donald Trump will be crowing about what is projected to be the “greatest rise” in GDP in history. With the economy opening, albeit slowly, there is indeed some growth. The calculation of the headline number, change from the previous quarter at an annualized rate, will be the basis for Trump loudly claiming that he has turned the economy around.
This statistical quirk is the result of the dismal drop in GDP during the second quarter. Trump will of course ignore the previous number and focus exclusively on the positive. As with many government economic indicators, there are a number of calculations for GDP. Very relevant to understanding where the county is during the recovery is the percent change from the quarter a year ago. That GDP number will be drastically different from the quarter-to-quarter GDP.
With the strong early voting, it is probable that a good number of the remaining voters only follow politics on a casual basis. They will hear Trump proclaim that he is the one fixing the economy. Every democratic candidate needs to be aware of the pending “great” headline number for Trump and must prepare to give a perspective to Trump’s claim. Democrats must expand the focus to the need to address continuing unemployment, healthcare issues and millions of people sliding into poverty. Trump has neither an interest in nor a real plan for fixing any of those economic concerns. Democrats must explain that in the big picture, the Build Back Better plan offers a realistic long term future for both the economy and the country.