DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING: KEEP and DELETE CAMPAIGN

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Friday February 26, 2010 · 12:58 PM PST

2010/02/26 · 12:58

Democrats are once again having trouble explaining the passage of the current HCR bill that the polls say the public doesn't like. They are also trying to justify the use of reconciliation to complete the process. Our Democratic friends need some help.

Here are suggestions for a simplified "talking point" message that will help explain both.

We could call it the "Keep and Delete" strategy.

Poll

14 votes Show Results

Do you think the KEEP and DELETE campaign could work?

14 votes Vote Now!

Do you think the KEEP and DELETE campaign could work?

Yes

8 votes

6 votes

Just Who's Winning the White House's/Fox News Cable Wars. You'll be Surprised!

tonnyb

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Friday November 06, 2009 · 9:00 AM PST

2009/11/06 · 09:00

Here is the untold story. While the media has largely focused on Fox News' ratings, they have missed the real story behind the cable news wars. I watched Meet the Press and Chris Matthews Show and other news programs on the Sunday, October 18th, and listen to Joe Scarborough, Tavis Smiley and others discuss Fox news ratings as "shooting through the roof" as a result of the White House's attack on Fox News. I thought it ludicrous to make such claims so soon after the attacks, and suspected that these commentators were simply repeating the unsubstantiated claim. I decided to review and track the ratings for Fox News and the other cable shows to see if I could determine a change in cable news viewership.

The following graphs display the results of cable news program ratings trends over a 5 week period starting on September 28th, 2009 and ending October 30th, 2009.

Poll

122 votes Show Results

Do you think the White House Strategy Helped

122 votes Vote Now!

Do you think the White House Strategy Helped

MSNBC

58 votes

Fox News

29 votes

CNN

0 votes

MSNBC & Fox News

3 votes

None of the Above

32 votes

The Obama "Kumbaya" Plan for D.C.

tonnyb

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Wednesday November 19, 2008 · 11:46 AM PST

2008/11/19 · 11:46

The Lieberman decision is making more sense to me now. I'm still upset, but the Lieberman issue was lite. Energy, health care, economy are monumental. Having an historical inauguration without the political infighting, that the Lieberman confrontation would have fueled, is what we need. A political confrontation would have set a different tone then what Obama has been promising and projecting. He is forgiving everyone's old bads, as they were part of the old way of doing politics in Washington, and giving everyone an opportunity to do better.

Poll

94 votes Show Results

Do you think Obama is:

94 votes Vote Now!

Do you think Obama is:

Fullfilling a campaign promise to change the tone of politics in D.C.

80 votes

Being weak

6 votes

Naive

8 votes

Effects of Obama's Infomercial and Other Campaign Events on Daily Tracking Polls

tonnyb

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Monday November 03, 2008 · 12:03 PM PST

2008/11/03 · 12:03

Talking Points Memo (TPM) combines 6 daily tracking polls and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, derives a TPM Tracker Composite score. I decided to plot TPM's composite against the major campaign events. The graph contains the TPM Tracker over the past 6 weeks and the major events that transpired over that time. Please note the black line running through the data points are trend lines.

Using the trend lines, Obama's support increased from 48.4% to about 51.5% over the six weeks while McCain's support dropped from 43.8% to about 43.2%. IMO, a correlation could be drawn between the shifts in the the daily tracking polls and major campaign events.

tonnyb

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Friday September 12, 2008 · 7:39 AM PDT

2008/09/12 · 07:39

What do Values, Authenticity; Communication and Connection, Trust, and Identity have to do with voter's decisions? According to George Lakoff, everything. According to George Lakoff, everything.

History says negative campaigning works. The press, commentators, pundits and the like have discussed ad infinitum how democrats do not know how to fight back and lose elections because of it. That is when democrats get attacked, they take the high road and not respond, whine about their republican opponents not fighting fair, try to use logic or truth to rebut the attacks, wait too long to respond, or respond with nuanced explanations.

Attacks late in a presidential campaign can be likened to a schoolyard fight. The kid who gets punched in the face needs to fight back. If he doesn't, he gets labeled a sissy. Barack needs to fight back. The public wants a champion. The public needs to know whether Obama can defend himself before they will consider if he can be their champion.

tonnyb

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Monday September 08, 2008 · 6:44 PM PDT

2008/09/08 · 18:44

First. Earmarks have a special place in Alaskan politics. In a September 1, 2008 article in the International Journal the importance of earmarks to Alaska is discussed.

Earmarks are close to sacrosanct in Alaska, which routinely reaps more money per resident for such projects than any other state because of the seniority and aggressiveness of Stevens and Young.

Governor Palin has a long history of aggressively lobbying for earmarks from Washington. While she was the mayor of Wasilla she made yearly trips to Washington in search of earmarks for her city, mainly from mainly Representative Don Young and Senator Ted Stevens. She boasted to The Anchorage Daily News in 2006, of having face to face meetings with those responsible for writing the budget and bringing more money home for her community. She had Wasilla employ Washington lobbyist to press for federal funds for her town. She obtained 27 million dollars while she was mayor of Wasilla or over $4,000 per resident.

tonnyb

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Friday May 23, 2008 · 8:58 PM PDT

2008/05/23 · 20:58

Clinton also talked about John Kennedy's death earlier in the campaign, in reflecting on other inspirational leaders who didn't make it. At best this is a horrible gaff by an extremely calculating and skilled politician. The "harding working whites" and "Bobby Kennedy's death" is more than ample reason to end this now.

According to Politico, there are 85 uncommitted super delegates who are elected officials. 62 of them are Congressional Representatives. Perhaps those of you who are inclined, could contact some of these uncommitted elected super delegates and ask them to put this baby to bed. Pressure, especially from their own constituents, might move some to endorse sooner. Please recommend even if you are not inclined to contact your representative.

I will post information about Senators and Governors later.

Update 12:37 am EST: California reps were wrong. I'll have them up in a few minutes

Later Update 12:51 am EST: California is now complete and correct.

tonnyb

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Thursday May 15, 2008 · 12:19 PM PDT

2008/05/15 · 12:19

According to Donna Brazille, if Obama gets 2026 before May 31st, then Obama will have won the nomination and the May 31st Rules Committee meeting will be cancelled because Obama has already reached the nominating goal. Brazille said and later confirmed this on CNN during Tuesday's West Virginia primary coverage.

Obama has received 11 new delegates today, 4 super-delegates and 7 former Edwards pledged delegates. Those 7 delegates could vote as they wish, effectively acting as superdelegates.

Poll

190 votes Show Results

Do you think Obama will get the 2026 needed for the Nomination before the Rules Committee meeting on May 31st?

190 votes Vote Now!

Do you think Obama will get the 2026 needed for the Nomination before the Rules Committee meeting on May 31st?

Yes

145 votes

45 votes

How Edwards Endorsement Can Eliminate the MI/FL Showdown

tonnyb

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Wednesday May 14, 2008 · 4:47 PM PDT

2008/05/14 · 16:47

Obama has 1889 total delegates.

If the remaining primaries break in the following way,

State	Obama/Clinton	Winner	Obama Delegates
KY	40%/60%	Clinton	20
OR	60%/40%	Obama	31
MT	56%/44%	Obama	8
SD	54%/46%	Obama	8
PR	44%/56%	Clinton	24

then 92 pledged delegates will be awarded to Obama from the remaining primaries.

tonnyb

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 13, 2008 · 6:23 PM PDT

2008/05/13 · 18:23

To put things in perspective, here is a review of past primaries and caucuses where Obama blew out Clinton. The results are approximates.

State	Obama/Clinton	Winner	Obama Delegates
KY	40%/60%	Clinton	20
OR	60%/40%	Obama	31
MT	56%/44%	Obama	8
SD	54%/46%	Obama	8
PR	44%/56%	Clinton	24

Different not Deficient: How Wright Self-Defense is Helping Obama

tonnyb

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday April 28, 2008 · 11:09 AM PDT

2008/04/28 · 11:09

On his interview with Bill Moyers, when Wright was asked about how he responded to Obama's denounciation of Wright's controversial statements, Wright responded that Obama is a politician and he (Wright) was a pastor and they spoke to different audiences. Many pundits have seen this as an attack on Obama, but I see it differently.

Poll

68 votes Show Results

What effect will Wright's public commentary have on Obama's presidential aspirations?

68 votes Vote Now!

What effect will Wright's public commentary have on Obama's presidential aspirations?

Help

20 votes

Hurt

12 votes

Hurt in the short run, help in the long run

36 votes

Obama's gets 54,000 New Donors ($5 million) in the 24 Hours Since the Primary was Called

tonnyb

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday April 23, 2008 · 7:22 PM PDT

2008/04/23 · 19:22

I have been casually tracking Obama's new donors over the past 24 hours. Last night the count past through 1,375,000 mark. This evening at about 8:30 the count was 1,428,959.

Obama's average donation is about $96. That's about 5 million in the past 24 hours from new donors alone. That doesn't include offline contributions and donations from previous donors.

In the late afternoon, using the $96 per contribution estimate, he was clocking over a 1/4 of a million per hour. It looks like Obama is doing fine.

Of course who knows what misspeaking Hillary's numbers really are.

What's remarkable is the sharp increase in new donors after Obama loses the primary. That means that more people are engaging in a more substantive manner.

Click if you'd like to donate.

This is where the tally of new donors is listed.

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DEMOCRATIC MESSAGING: KEEP and DELETE CAMPAIGN

Just Who's Winning the White House's/Fox News Cable Wars. You'll be Surprised!

The Obama "Kumbaya" Plan for D.C.

Effects of Obama's Infomercial and Other Campaign Events on Daily Tracking Polls

Voters don't Vote On the Issues or How Obama Can Win!

The Earmark Queen and the Bridge to Nowhere

Can We End This Now? List of Uncommitted Super Delegate Representatives and Senators

How Obama Could Win the Nomination before May 31st

How Edwards Endorsement Can Eliminate the MI/FL Showdown

The 17 Primaries Where Obama Blewout Clinton

Different not Deficient: How Wright Self-Defense is Helping Obama

Obama's gets 54,000 New Donors ($5 million) in the 24 Hours Since the Primary was Called