Well my prediction for the first debate was pretty close to right on. Although even I was surprised at how poorly Bush did. So here is why I think Rove and company are not going to be able to turn Bush around for the upcoming debates.
- They don't have enough time.
The next debate is coming up very quickly. BushCo is going to be hard pressed to find enough time to get George ready. And his day job, being president, is hard work. He said so himself.
- Bush does not do well under pressure.
His My Pet Goat moment when Kerry nailed him with the more of the same comment is telling. The media set it up as if Kerry was in a make-or-break situation for the first debate and all Bush had to do was tie to win. Now he needs a clutch performance. This is not his strong suit.
- Turd blossom has nothing to work with
I have suspected that they have been hiding Bush and felt it must be because they were afraid of what he might do if confronted with a hostile crowd. His petulant side might show and make for bad publicity. They hoped he could hold it together for the debates by repeating the same phrases he has been using on his stump speeches. Obviously that failed. Bush was so angry at Kerry he couldn't think straight.
As others have stated this was a colossal mistake. I wonder if they thought the questions would be softballs and Kerry would just roll over? Thank God for Jim Leher. Trying to make up ground now is going to be very difficult. It is like cramming for an final exam the night before you take it.
In this next debate I expect Kerry to do a reasonable job. Remember he has been taking all sorts of questions for literally years. I am confident that they are not getting cocky and will prep for this debate just like the last one. Kerry impresses me as someone who will put his boot on an opponents face and grind when he finally gets you down. I expect no let up.
I expect Bush to do better at first, but continued attacks by Kerry will wear on him. Then at some point the powder keg question will come, and Bush will blow. My fantasy is that it will cause an outburst of swearing, but that is too much to hope for. More likely it will cause another deer-in-the-headlights moment or more angry faces. The wonderful thing is, this can be very subtle, because the CW is taking hold that Bush is petulant. Any slight gesture that suggests anger or impatience is only going to reinforce that branding. If Bush tries to suppress this behavior, it is going to take significant energy away from the debate at hand, upping the chances for more deer-in-the-headlights moments. It's a classic catch-22 and I can't see him avoiding it. Even, if by some miracle he avoids these problems, the best he will do is tie with Kerry, and he needs to win decisively.