Appropriate references to REM acknowledged (REM rocking out)
Occasionally I can make some pretty accurate predictions. It is an extremely nerdy thing to do – keep track of your predictions to see how well you do – but I’m not ashamed. To give an example, in August the year before Bush’s Iraq war, I became certain we were invading and I predicted to within a week the beginning of the invasion. Of course, I try to make a lot of predictions in order to make sure I get a few correct, its not like I am a psychic or something.
A bit of more digression before I get to the point: How I wish Hunter Thompson had not stepped out on us. These days make me think of Thompson’s dark troll, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (only the book please). It feels as if the ghost of Nixon must surely be stalking Republican souls with knives drawn sucking away the last shreds of dignity of the GOP. The southern strategy has become a monster is loose on the world like the mummy. Hunter, if you are reading this drunk out of your mind in some seedy hotel room in an ulterior reality, we needed you for this.
Anyway, I feel like this is a time to record a prediction since we are getting close to this being Trump vs. Hillary.
Part of me feels like the GOP stands at the abyss. They have created a deep wasteland of contempt for government, fostered hatred of other people of all types, simultaneously driven policies creating deep economic divides while feeding off the resentment for that divide; and preached a rejection of the rule of law. Up to now, from my point of view, this has worked fabulously well for them (not for my beliefs mind you), because they control many state governments, successfully instituted aggressive gerrymandering, managed to dilute unions and worker rights; successfully weakened the right to vote, undermined women’s rights, locked in the House for a near future, and created a class of super donors whose opinions count more than yours or mind simply on the fact that they might kick in millions to politicians.
However, now isn’t up to now and the times they are a changing (Bob Dylan singing — shout out to Bernie’s crowd). I guess a large pool of shallow candidates has proven it is not the same as a pool comprised of a few deep candidates. Now a portion of the GOP is going ape-shit crazy because they unwittingly (even if predicted by some) created a vacuum perfectly designed for Trump’s super ego. All this being further proof that nature abhors a vacuum.
So these are the paths I was trying to pick from:
Option 1: GOP Establishment Survives and GOP loses the White House (again)
The establishment GOP truly rejects Trump and manages to salvage Cruz or Rubio to lead the GOP. This leads to a Democratic victory in the fall as Trump voters rebel en masse against the GOP. I don’t think it matters if Trump goes 3rd party of not – if he is not the GOP candidate the GOP is going to lose.
Option 2: Trump is the Candidate, but Establishments balks at supporting him on principle, the GOP loses the White House (again)
In this case the GOP establishment can’t stop Trump and the Establishment stands by Republican principles on things like trade, religious freedom, foreign affairs, etc. This splintering should be enough to guarantee a Democrat as President.
Option 3: Trump is the candidate, but the GOP goes full Christie, the rush of new voters push Trump to the Presidency. The GOP wins the White House.
This is the scenario where once the convention arrives and Trump is winning, the GOP establishment decides that they would have rather have Trump trickle down on their heads rather than lose. This only requires the GOP to rationalize that the best chance they have to save us from Trump is to help elect Trump. (Never forget Pogo)
Option 4: Trump is the candidate, the GOP goes full Christie, but the Democrats still win.
This is the ultimate implosion of the GOP. I can only dream of it.
Option 5: Something else
You tell me.
Right now I am 50-50 between options 2 and 3. I waver back and forth between glee at a self destructing GOP and the fear of falling into a never ending world of the Apprentice.
Let me know what you think.