NRO's Derbyshire (yeah, the clown of NRO) evaluated his predictions for 2005 from a year ago. He was proud to agree with Philip Tetlock's quotation:
It is the somewhat gratifying lesson [that] people who make prediction their business — people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables — are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. They insist that they were just off on timing, or blindsided by an improbable event, or almost right, or wrong for the right reasons. They have the same repertoire of self-justifications that everyone has, and are no more inclined than anyone else to revise their beliefs about the way the world works, or ought to work, just because they made a mistake.
So true. Especially when the experts specifically work to assure only predictions that are comfortable for the "Great Leader".
But Derb is too modest with evaluating his own predictions...
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