At last count, the Disney measles outbreak is at 114 cases, with one who took Amtrak in New York state while contagious. It's time for some serious proposals to deal with this and prevent future outbreaks. Here are three for your consideration.
The discussion & debate around measles and vaccination should end up with something concrete to take to our state legislatures. DK GOTV efforts have arguably affected local, state, and national election outcomes. If we can do that, we can do this.
Before vaccination, there were 500,000 measles cases per year in the USA. At today's population, that would be 1.5 million cases per year, 375,000 of whom would suffer permanent disabilities such as vision or hearing impairment or brain damage, and 1,500 per year would die. Measles was eradicated in the US in 2000, until the spread of anti-vax CT brought it back with a vengeance. Enough is enough, it's time to fight.
The brief version:
1) Ban nonmedical exemptions. West Virginia and Mississippi do it, the rest of the states can do as well. Universal vaccination has already withstood a Supreme Court challenge.
2) Fallback: Allow nonmedical exemptions under a "draft board" type of proceeding, the quantity of exemptions being limited to a number that does not threaten social immunity (herd immunity).
3) Compromise: Charge a fee for processing nonmedical exemptions, calculated as the 1/N cost of dealing with the previous year's outbreaks. A very rough calculation for California showed that to be about $389 per exempted family for the cost of a year with 100 cases originating here (we're already past that point).
Details below.
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