This diary is part of a series where I guestimate how congressional reapportionment will change in 2020 based on current trends. Obviously this is very hypothetical. The first diary was a democratic gerrymander of the state of Minnesota, which will lose a congressional district in 2020. The nation as a whole will change in this way:
Losers:
RI -1
NY -2
MN -1
PA -1
MI -2
OH -2
WV -1
NE -1
IL -1
NJ -1
Gainers
NV +1
UT +1
OR +1
ID +1
MT +1
CO +1
TX +2
FL +1
VA +1
NC +1
GA +1
AZ +1
This is all pure speculation. I feel I could most be wrong about New Jersey losing a CD and any of the state gainers could gain more than I have indicated (maybe Virginia shouldn’t even be on there).
This diary focuses on the gains expected in Montana, Idaho, and Utah.
MT, East-West
2020 may finally mean Montana returns to 2 congressional districts. With Rhode Island almost sure to lose one of it’s tow, its loss may be Montana’s gain. I’ll present two maps and explain each.
From the census of 2010, it appears that the population increases are occurring mostly in the western half of the state, but the Billings metro area is gaining at a good clip too. Following tradition when the state had 2 CDs before, I think the map below is the most realistic, an East-West divide. Who knows who will control the levers of government in 2020…if Steve Bullock wins this year, I’m guessing he’ll be re-elected in 2016 and then Montanans will go with at Republican governor in 2020 after 16 years of Democratic executives. The legislature…well, who knows.
Since DRA doesn’t have election numbers for Montana, I used the NYT Montana county results for the 2006 senate election and 2008 presidential election. I had to keep counties whole.
Montana East/West
1st CD (blue)
The western district includes Missoula, Kalispell, Helena, and Butte. Western Montana, with universities and a mining industry that is unionized, is more Democratic than eastern Montana. I expect the west to grow at a slightly faster clip than the east, so this district is currently under-populated by 40,000 people (see previous Minnesota diary for my explanation on hypothesizing about 2020 populations).
Obama: 51.4%
Tester: 53.7%
Lean D
2nd CD (green)
Eastern Montana district includes Bozeman, Billings, and Great Falls. I would have liked to leave Great Falls in the western district but the map would not look much like an east-west map then. District is over-populated by 40,000 people since this district will grow at a slower pace than the western district.
Obama: 46.4%
Tester: 47.6%
Likely R
No surprise; one D and one R are likely from this map. I think the western district is a little shaky though.
Montana, North-South
I think this map is less realistic, though I consider it a Democratic gerrymander that looks reasonably clean. This could be implemented if Dems control the trifecta.
I consider it a Democratic gerrymander because Deer Lodge and Silver Bow counties are really part of southern Montana (they both lean Dem) while some Republican counties in the east such as Garfield, McCone, Richland, and Dawson are in the northern part of the state but put in the southern district. It’s hard for my to gauge how the population will shift over time so I kept the populations even for now.
Montana North/South
1st CD (blue)
Deer Lodge and Silver Bow counties and then northern Montana. This district is more strongly Dem than the 1st CD in the more realistic map.
Obama: 52.6%
Tester: 54.3%
Likely D
2nd CD (green)
Sort-of southern Montana.
Obama: 44.2%
Tester: 45.7%
Likely or Safe R
This probably puts the 2nd CD out of reach for Dems but the 1st CD is likely to elect and keep a Democrat.
Utah
Utah will almost certainly still be very Republican in 2020. In 2010, the Republicans cracked Salt Lake County 4 ways to make 4 very Republican districts. While areas north and south of Salt Lake City are gaining new migrants, including many Republicans, so is Salt Lake County. If Jim Matheson survives until 2020 (I’ll be surprised if he’s still around by then, as I think he’ll retire but not be defeated), then he’ll need to worry about his left. I just don’t see how dividing Salt Lake County 5 ways would not result in a possible 2-3 Dem-Rep split in a potential Republican dummymander. So I’m guessing Republicans will vote-sink the new district as much as possible. We’ll finally be assured of a liberal Democrat in Utah.
Since much of Utah is growing at a similar pace, I simply created 5 CDs based on the current population. All CDs within 675 deviation.
Utah Statewide
Utah, 1st and 5th CDs
Utah 3rd CD
1st CD (blue)
30.1% Obama
11.8% Hispanic
Northern Salt Lake City suburbs and Ogden.
Safe R
2nd CD (Green)
22.0% Obama
8.6% Hispanic
Southern and Eastern Utah, and Spanish Fork and Springville in Utah County
I thought I could create a district that was more Southern Utah than anything, but so few people live there I had to bring in some population centers to get this to equity.
Maybe the most Republican district in the country?
Safe R
3rd CD (Purple)
29.8% Obama
10.5% Hispanic
Provo, Orem, Sandy, Wasatch County
If Jason Chaffetz hasn’t moved up by now (Orin Hath has to retire in 2018, right??), this is his district.
Safe R
4th CD (red)
30.9% Obama
13.0% Hispanic
Southwestern Salt Lake County, Northwest Utah, and Logan
I’m not sure how kosher it is to put Logan in this district that wraps around and includes southwestern Salt Lake City suburbs so advice is appreciated. This district is actually the second-most Democratic friendly in the state!
Still, Safe R.
5th CD (yellow)
58.3% Obama
21% Hispanic
Salt Lake City, West Valley City, western Summit County
It’s not hard to create a safe Democratic district when there are 5 CDs. I tried to vote-sink as many Dems as possible, as that’s what the Republicans will do (for instance, Summit County is a blue county, but the Democrats only really live in the western part). This is safe enough that I think we can consistently get a liberal Dem here, not a Blue Dog.
Safe D
So far, 2020 is shaping up well for Democrats. The at-large house seat in Montana (which leans R in neutral years) is no more and we have a decent shot at a 1-1 delegation there, which means +1 D. In Utah, we have Jim Matheson but we can’t count on him to stay forever. Plus, the DCCC has to spend precious funds to defend his seat. In 2020, we shouldn’t need to spend that much to protect a liberal Dem in CD 5. So if Utah is 1-2 now, and 1-3 in 2013 (and, let’s be honest, probably 0-4 by the end of the decade), we gain the seat back in 2020 for a 1-4 delegation.
Now Idaho. Like Utah, Idaho is really Republican. But it has fewer districts. And Boise isn’t as big and diverse as Salt Lake. It will be more diverse in 2020 compared to now, but still nothing like Salt Lake City. And I’m sure the Republicans will hold the power in 2020. I know Idaho uses a commission, but Idaho is so Republican that unless something really changes between now and 2020, we’re looking at 0-3.
While Idaho is growing quickly, Canyon and Kootenai counties are especially gaining population. As such, the first CD is over-populated by 1500 people while CDs 2 and 3 are roughly equal in population
Idaho-Statewide
Boise area
1st CD
Northern Idaho, Nampa, Caldwell
37.0% Obama
10.8% Hispanic
The majority of people who move into this district I think will be Republicans. Unless Republicans have a terrible candidate like Bill Sali, this isn’t going to the Dems.
Safe R
2nd CD
33.7% Obama
12.0% Hispanic
Eastern Idaho, including northeast Boise
Safe R
3rd CD
Most of Boise, Twin Falls, outer areas of Canyon County
40.2% Obama
10.9% Hispanic
If the Dems have a shot anywhere, it’s here. It’s still an uphill climb and I could simply put Gooding County in the district and cede more of Boise to the 2nd to put this out of reach. I wonder if I missed some unsaid Idaho rules when creating this district.
Likely R
Next up I’ll post about three states where I think they’ll each lose a district in 2020: NE, WV, and NJ