You simply can't the LOSE 25% of the primary electorate & expect to win the Democratic nomination. “It's the delegate MATH, stupid.”
African-American make up 25% of the primary electorate. With proportional allocation in a crowded field, the AA vote can play a “disportionate” role.
Every single objective analysis of the 2008 and 2016 races have determined the AA vote was THE DECIDING FACTOR. For THIS WHITE MAJORITY community to continue to IGNORE this MATHEMATICAL FACT is as TONE-DEAF as chanting ALL Lives Matter back to Black Lives Matter activists.
Blame the DNC, money-interested, press, PACS, and call it a RIGGED system, but if you can't ACKNOWLEDGE a FATAL political mistake AND prove you're learned from history, then you're going to LOSE all over again.
It's the MATH, stupid. Part I
THE START of the story: Obama shocked the world and won IOWA in 2008. Clinton pulled off the upset and won NH. Obama won a close NV caucus. AA voters still fondly recalled the Clintons and stuck with them.
The FATAL mistake: Bill and Hillary committed political suicide before, during and after the all-important 2008 South Carolina primary.
"The most powerful African-American in Congress again scolded former President Bill Clinton for his comments during the Democratic presidential race.
Rep. James Clyburn says ex-President Clinton's actions have deeply upset many African-Americans.
And he said he's concerned that the venomous nature of the campaign might create wounds that won't heal before the general election in November."
House Majority Whip James Clyburn, D-South Carolina, told CNN Friday that Bill Clinton's comments on the "race card" before Pennsylvania's April 22 primary upset him.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/25/clinton.clyburn/
Clyburn's memoir provides more details for those that don't recall the Clintons held the AA vote edge against Obama BEFORE BLOWING IT.
https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/02/11/bill-clintons-2-am-phone-call-to-jim-clyburn
The LESSON LEARNED: After losing, Hillary, publicly embraced Barack. He embraced her back to unite the party but also often expressed general admiration for her. During the months to come, strained public smiles turned to genuine affection between Hillary and Barack and that did help bring more followers together. Bill was another story altogether and beloved Michelle nursed some grudge.
It's the MATH, stupid. Part II
The START of FATAL MISTAKE: In 2011-2012, Bernie Sanders gave interviews calling for or supporting primarying Obama, the first African-American President. Some folks here insist that was a little known story, but they don't understand how the OFA network works and more critically sure don't understand how the black community works. Sanders didn't just piss off Obama-World, his words OFFENDED the MOST LOYAL Democratic constituents, African Americans.
Sanders wavered betweeen bewilderment and defiance when confronted with how this pissed off many AA voters. That tone-deafness would continue.
"After protestors with the Black Lives Matter movement took the stage during a Bernie Sanders rally in Seattle Saturday to criticize the presidential candidate for not paying enough attention to issues of race, the Sanders campaign came up with a solution: It decided to shout down future protestors with the phrase, We stand together.
This is the worst idea in the campaign's short life. Think about it: It involves hundreds of mostly white people shouting what is essentially "All lives matter� at the black people who dare to attempt to be heard."
http://time.com/3996001/bernie-sanders-black-lives-matter/
LESSON NOT LEARNED: Sanders nearly upset Clinton in IOWA in 2016. Sanders romped Clinton in NH primary. Sanders vs Clinton engaged in a heated and controversial Nevada Caucus. Whatever side you believe, it mattered Jon Ralston, the guru of Nevada political reporters, blamed the Sanders supporters. He still does, and this is a second UNCORRECTED FATAL mistake because this guy is not only tuned into NV Democratic Party and powerful unions, the national media.
The 2016 race, like the 2008, was DECIDED by the South Carolina Primary. This primary was specifically devised to give the MOST LOYAL Democratic voters an early and influential voice in choosing in a nominee. Sanders earned just 14% of the black vote.
"Clyburn also dismissed the notion from Sanders last week after he suggested that Clinton was playing up her connections to the first African-American president in Barack Obama in an attempt to curry favor with the state's influential and important electorate.
Well I've only heard the accusation coming from Senator Sanders," he said, going on to say that people are not only often condemned for reaching out and accused of pandering to the African-American community but also for failing to speak to the community.
https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/jim-clyburn-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-219668
SC ended the 2016 race. While Sanders 2016 campaign and supporters argued for months afterwards they had a path forward without winning the AA vote, as our own poblano responded once in exasperation in 2008 to some Clinton supporters, "the math isn’t there." Poblano was statistics guru Nate Silver.
While Bernie did campaign for Clinton and support her, I don't feel they ever developed any real admiration for her each other and this hurt their unity.
It's the MATH, stupid. Part III
Black VOTERS don't just Matter, they choose the Democratic Primary winner.
This Latina UNDERSTANDS the AA vote is more key to winning the nomination than Latinos. We're not as loyal a constituent as blacks nor to our shame nearly as reliable a voting bloc. This is why I'm NOT particularly impressed with some of what I'm hearing on Castro's strategy. And, why I'm NOT impressed by Buttigieg's supporters dismissing rural AA voters in the southern primaries.
The LESSON still NOT LEARNED: Articles, like this one, aren't exactly reassuring that Bernie's most ardent supporters have learned a darn thing from 2016,
"Despite a persistent notion that his supporters are disproportionately white male bros, the new survey suggests that Sanders is actually slightly more popular among black Democratic voters than white ones, indicating that the narrative that developed during the 2016 campaign may no longer hold, if it ever did."
https://theintercept.com/2019/03/06/bernie-sanders-black-voters-2020/
It wasn't some dubious NARRATIVE.
"Registering and turning out new voters has long been the vision of progressive campaigns. But because it's extraordinarily difficult, most campaigns stick to the traditional approach of raising big money to pay for television ads that persuade undecided but dependable voters. The upside of the Sanders strategy is that it could reshape the political electorate,"
Now THIS was Barack Obama's winning strategy to beating the Clinton Machine. In the spring of 2017, while the Clinton Campaign and MSM were too busy focusing on national horse race polls and dismissing Obama's low poll numbers, Obama and Plouffe was quietly building the largest grassroots org ever, the legendary OFA.
This can be a winning strategy IF you concentrate LESS on national and pour time and resources into LOCAL efforts. Bernie appearing on FOX New town hall and packing audience with supporters was smart media strategy. He brilliantly chose to borrow a page from Trump and packed the audience to embarrass the FOX Hosts! BRAVO, well done, sir. That's how you play the game against FOX. I hope all others took notice!
MSM all gushed and took notice!
Meanwhile, MSM completely missed some damned impressive grassroots organizing by the Harris campaign. She's amassed an impressive network of African-American women volunteers and activists, tapped into sorority sister networks and is the one candidate conducting real outreach to rural AA voters in southern states.
And, while others gleefully report Becky Bond walking away from Beto, his new OFA vet campaign manager, Jen O'Malley Dillon, beat the field to Super Tuesday's NC, tapping into key AA grassroots that helped propel Obama there.
Showing up and marching at Selma, emphasizing you marched for MLK, actually showing up at some black churches, and this time actively asking for support from black politicians and leaders IS an improvement. But, Sanders can't simply settle for IMPROVING upon his disastrous AA numbers.
Here's some suggestions:
Obama's a corrupt, sell-out who fucked us over, yadda yadda he’ badd, I tell you BADD, is only a winning message with the Nina Turners crowd AND the idiots like Candace Owens, a tiny fraction of AA women. Such messaging only serves to alienate many 2008 OFA vets who sat out 2016.
Slap down hard the sexist tone of some of your surrogates. One already pissed off a very influential black woman. Never, ever piss off black women, they remember and VOTE.
You're repeating Clinton's 2008 failed post-South Carolina primary strategy, thinking ahead to the general election electorate make-up vs primary. What good does it claim you can beat Trump when you can’t win your own party nomination? Electability, my ass! If you can’t win a primary then you have no business claiming you can win a general and yes, I said this in 2016.
Courting white Independents, even disaffected GOPers, and working class voters is all well and good, but never forget minority voters make up the MAJORITY of the Democratic electorate.
Employing more minorities for your campaign and using more minority surrogates is all well and good, but AA voters need to be convinced YOU have learned from your past mistakes. IOW, after a horrible first impression, you have to work 10x harder to win approval --→ Jim Clyburn damned Sanders with faint praise for showing up. Bless his heart [snark]
It's the MATH, stupid.
PS: Next in the series will be it’s the DELEGATE MATH, stupid! This race will be all over by March 17, 2020, when 2/3 of delegates will have already been allocated.
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