Go Southwest Dems!

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Thursday November 04, 2004 · 7:49 AM PST

2004/11/04 · 07:49

I cant think of a way to reach out to religious bigots that doesnt compromise everything I stand for and I want the Democratic party to stand for. So where are we going to get the extra few percent we need to win elections? To me the answer is clear:

Write off the theocratic states of the south - They are too far out of reach and I dont want to compromise with them anyway
Do everything we can to win Hispanics in the Southwest in the long run. Ask Bill Richardson what to do and then do it.

These voters are naturals for a traditional democratic message - New immigrants care more about bread and butter economics than fat and happy southerners do, and they tend Democratic anyway. Even better, the demographics are moving our way over the long term - Hispanics are the fastest growing population group we have. Read More

Bush Wins - The Dollar Tanks

sck5

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Thursday November 04, 2004 · 7:28 AM PST

2004/11/04 · 07:28

As an economist, I have been saying for quite some time that Bush's policies of cutting taxes, increasing spending and borrowing the difference from foreigners cannot be sustained indefinitely. Apparently, the first reaction of the foreign exchange markets supports this. Check out what happened to the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro as soon as it became clear early Wed. morning that Bush would win:
Read More

The exchange rate with China isnt the big problem

sck5

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Thursday October 21, 2004 · 10:14 AM PDT

2004/10/21 · 10:14

The Basic Problem Isn't China's Exchange Rate Policy, It's Our Deficit

Much has been made recently of the Administrations fruitless attempts to get the Chinese to revalue their currency to help cure the $100 billion bilateral trade surplus they are running with us. There are two main problems with this:

It reflects a complete misunderstanding of what really is the problem with our current account.
It won't work

Why is it that we have a huge and growing current account deficit? The popular press (and apparently the Bush White House) seem to believe it is because particular countries engage in aggressive pricing by keeping their exchange rates too low. They may be doing that but this entirely begs the question of WHY we have a huge deficit in our international payments. Simply put, it is because we are spending more than we make. As long as we do that we are going to need foreigners to lend us money to cover the difference. The fact is that if we face increased prices for Chinese imports we may consume a little less of what they send us, but we will also consume a bit more of everything else. The net result isn't going to cure our basic problem. Read More

Kerry should say: I am running for Pres. of the US. My opponent

sck5

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Thursday September 23, 2004 · 10:11 AM PDT

2004/09/23 · 10:11

seems to be running for President of Iraq. Bush seems more worried about whether Iraqis have a good leader than he does about whether people in the US are better off.

We need a leader who is focused on what's best for us instead of what's best for people in other countries (who dont even like us)

Sample error and model error - why Kerry may be way ahead

sck5

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Thursday September 23, 2004 · 8:08 AM PDT

2004/09/23 · 08:08

With the new ARG poll out there are questions about the relative importance of sampling error and model error. Several commentators have mentioned that it is likely to be model error that is causing the wide disparity in results rather than sampling error. This is almost certainly true, but many dont know what the difference between the two. Here it is:

SAMPLING ERROR - usually reported as the "margin of error" tells you what confidence you have that the value computed from the sample you picked actually represents the true value in the population as a whole, ASSUMING THAT YOU HAVE THE CORRECT MODEL FOR HOW THE CHOICE IS MADE IN THE FIRST PLACE. For example, if we look at coin tosses, the "correct model" is that there is a 50-50 chance of heads vs. tails. If I toss the coin ten times I may or may not get this 50-50 split from my sample of tosses. The more tosses, the more likely I am to get something close to 50-50 again ASSUMING THAT I AM RIGHT THAT THE CORRECT MODEL IS 50-50.

The usually reported "moe's" are correctly understood to mean the following: If I repeated my sample 20 times on the same population, then 19 times out of 20 the "true" value for the number lies within the range given by my estimate plus or minus the moe.

MODEL ERROR - is far more important when we dont really know the true nature of the model and are only guessing at it. The "true" parameter for Bush vs. Kerry is whatever percentage we would get if we could actually ask every single person who really is going to vote in November who they would vote for and they actually told us the truth and then actually did go vote that way. Where could this go wrong in an actual poll? Read More

When Bush Says "If Kerry had his way, Saddam would still be in power"

sck5

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Tuesday September 14, 2004 · 9:18 AM PDT

2004/09/14 · 09:18

Kerry should answer:

"Maybe so, but Osama would be dead"

Kos, your blog is starting to become boring

sck5

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Tuesday July 20, 2004 · 8:54 AM PDT

2004/07/20 · 08:54

I was first attracted to this blog by the left leaning commentary about current issues. What it seems to be morphing into is a site for people obsessed with the arcane details of running campaigns and also raising money. I am a political junkie myself but even I am getting overloaded with this sort of stuff on the blog.

I know it's an election year, but what I like about the blog is talk about WHY to support left causes. The nuts and bolts stuff and the behind the scenes details are starting to get a lot more prominent than they used to be and personally I find it a lot less interesting to log onto Kos than I used to.

Imagine how a first-timer will feel when they find numerous posts asking for money or looking at the campaign details of sub-state level races where they dont live. They might well not come back any time soon. So, I guess this is a plea to remember your roots. I can well imagine that it is very fun to be a player in the election, but dont forget what it was that made you a player in the first place.

Priorities: Torture vs. Bad Press about Torture

sck5

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Wednesday May 05, 2004 · 9:43 AM PDT

2004/05/05 · 09:43

I am wondering if anybody else has noticed the Bush/Pentagon response to the torture photos. We have heard that they have known they were going to be made public for at least two weeks and that they have known about the problem since at least two months ago. But what did they use the two weeks or two months to do? To develop a list of talking points to use with the press. They DIDNT EVEN GET THE TORTURERS OUT OF THE PRISON. They dont care about the torture. They only care what people will say about the torture.

Being a Baathist General is Like Having Tenure

sck5

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Friday April 30, 2004 · 5:44 PM PDT

2004/04/30 · 17:44

No matter what you do, they cant fire you. You can just keep on coming back.

And now we have completely lost the war. The only way giving a city (or two) to the former enemy makes any sense is as a first step toward a rather immediate and total withdrawal. Anything else is now based on total fantasy. The "insurgents" have defeated the US Marines, because for whatever reason, at the end of the day, it was the Marines who withdrew. They wont forget it and they wont let anyone else either. And they now have a city (or two) to use as a base for spreading their insurgency. What kind of imperial power gives whole cities away to their opponents? One that is on the way out.

George Bush has resolve and determination

sck5

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Monday April 26, 2004 · 10:30 AM PDT

2004/04/26 · 10:30

in exactly the same way my dog has resolve and determination when she smells bacon. No thought is involved. No calculation of pros and cons. No consideration of alternatives. Just reptile-brain striving for the bacon.

OPEC votes for Kerry

sck5

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Thursday April 01, 2004 · 9:41 AM PST

2004/04/01 · 09:41

Dont you think its a bit fortuitous that OPEC is deciding to cut oil production right at a moment when higher oil prices will have a definite effect on our presidential campaign? I have no facts whatever to back this up but I wonder if they are doing what they can to undermine Bush in the runup to November. If they are, they have a big stick to swing - higher oil prices will definitely have a negative effect on our economy and people's attitude toward the Administration. I know that there are "averrge voters" out there who think that the Iraq adventure is only worth it if they get a cheaper gallon of gas.

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