Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/30-7/2, 7/5, New Hampshire voters, no trendlines):
Carol Shea-Porter (D): 41
Frank Guinta (R-inc): 48
Ann McLane Kuster (D): 42
Charlie Bass (R-inc): 43
Truth be told, these numbers are better for New Hampshire's Republican incumbents than I would have expected—but they still aren't what I'd call good. Kuster, our 2010 nominee in NH-02, has a decent 36-30 favorability rating, while Bass's job approvals are an abysmal 29-48. As PPP notes in its press release, "It is remarkable Kuster is not at least slightly ahead of Bass." For reasons that aren't clear to me, independents prefer Bass by a 44-33 margin, even though they say they like Kuster quite a bit more. I'd have to guess this is rather soft support for Bass, and that some well-placed negative advertising by Democrats could shrivel up that advantage.
The situation looks less favorable in the 1st CD. Frank Guinta's approvals, while mediocre, are a lot better than Bass's, standing at 39-38. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter's favorables are underwater at 40-48. It'll be hard for her to turn that around, given how well-known she is and also given her penchant for weak fundraising (she pulled in just $108K in Q2). Shea-Porter may well not wind up being the Democratic nominee, though. She already has one declared opponent, businesswoman Joanne Dowdell—but Dowdell raised even less than CSP last quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if other Democrats decided to get in here, especially since Guinta has weaknesses of his own that are ready to be exploited by a well-equipped challenger.