So the calculus for Mitt Romney looks like this: can he withstand a 3rd or 4th place finish in Iowa, a virtual tie in New Hampshire, and a crushing defeat in South Carolina? Evidently Mitt is counting on Florida to save him. It's a modified Giuliani strategy because Mitt is trying in New Hampshire, but it may not work any better than it did in 2008 for Rudy.
As a comment, although the topline numbers look reasonable, there is great hinkiness in the crosstabs for the Insider Advantage poll of Iowa - in the 18-29 age group, 46.8% of the voters went for Bachmann, 46.8% for Paul, and 6.4% for someone else. 56 voters allegedly voted in this category. To get 46.8% of 56, you require 26.208 votes.
Expect Rick Perry to call it quits after New Hampshire if these numbers hold.
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