Newt rising: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

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Tuesday November 29, 2011 · 8:16 AM PST

2011/11/29 · 08:16

A new Insider Advantage poll in New Hampshire shows Mitt Romney just ahead of Newt Gingrich in the first presidential primary state, 31% to 27%.

Newt leads in South Carolina:

A new Insider Advantage poll in South Carolina shows Newt Gingrich running away from the GOP presidential field with 38%, followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Michele Bachmann at 3% and Rick Santorum at 2%.
A new American Research Group poll finds Gingrich leading with 33%, followed by Romney at 22% and Cain at 10%.

Newt leads in Iowa.

Per Insider Advantage and We Ask America.

Candidate	Insider Advantage	We Ask America
Gingrich	28.1	29
Paul	13.3	11
Romney	11.5	13
Bachmann	11.5	13
Cain	9.8	7
Perry	6.6	5
Santorum	3.3	5
Someone else	3.2	4

So the calculus for Mitt Romney looks like this: can he withstand a 3rd or 4th place finish in Iowa, a virtual tie in New Hampshire, and a crushing defeat in South Carolina? Evidently Mitt is counting on Florida to save him. It's a modified Giuliani strategy because Mitt is trying in New Hampshire, but it may not work any better than it did in 2008 for Rudy.

As a comment, although the topline numbers look reasonable, there is great hinkiness in the crosstabs for the Insider Advantage poll of Iowa - in the 18-29 age group, 46.8% of the voters went for Bachmann, 46.8% for Paul, and 6.4% for someone else. 56 voters allegedly voted in this category. To get 46.8% of 56, you require 26.208 votes.

Expect Rick Perry to call it quits after New Hampshire if these numbers hold.

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Newt rising: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

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