Gleaned from Politician Wire, twice.
A new Insider Advantage poll in New Hampshire shows Mitt Romney just ahead of Newt Gingrich in the first presidential primary state, 31% to 27%.
Newt leads in South Carolina:
A new Insider Advantage poll in South Carolina shows Newt Gingrich running away from the GOP presidential field with 38%, followed by Mitt Romney at 15%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Michele Bachmann at 3% and Rick Santorum at 2%.
A new American Research Group poll finds Gingrich leading with 33%, followed by Romney at 22% and Cain at 10%.
Newt leads in Iowa.
Per Insider Advantage and We Ask America.
Candidate |
Insider Advantage |
We Ask America
|
Gingrich |
28.1 |
29
|
Paul |
13.3 |
11
|
Romney |
11.5 |
13
|
Bachmann |
11.5 |
13
|
Cain |
9.8 |
7
|
Perry |
6.6 |
5
|
Santorum |
3.3 |
5
|
Someone else |
3.2 |
4
|
So the calculus for Mitt Romney looks like this: can he withstand a 3rd or 4th place finish in Iowa, a virtual tie in New Hampshire, and a crushing defeat in South Carolina? Evidently Mitt is counting on Florida to save him. It's a modified Giuliani strategy because Mitt is trying in New Hampshire, but it may not work any better than it did in 2008 for Rudy.
As a comment, although the topline numbers look reasonable, there is great hinkiness in the crosstabs for the Insider Advantage poll of Iowa - in the 18-29 age group, 46.8% of the voters went for Bachmann, 46.8% for Paul, and 6.4% for someone else. 56 voters allegedly voted in this category. To get 46.8% of 56, you require 26.208 votes.
Expect Rick Perry to call it quits after New Hampshire if these numbers hold.