Leading Off
● MT-AL: We're in the final stretch run of the special election for Montana's lone congressional seat, and the TV ads are flying fast and furious. We'll start with Democrat Rob Quist, who has new spots on the same topic, one that's a minute long and the other 30 seconds. Quist narrates both, mentioning his own pre-existing medical condition (a "botched gall-bladder surgery") and those of others who are shown attending a picnic with him. He then castigates Republican Greg Gianforte for saying he was "thankful" for the GOP's healthcare repeal, which would allow insurers to once again discriminate against people with pre-existing conditions, and adds that he thinks the wealthy Gianforte is grateful "because he gets another big tax break at our expense."
Campaign Action
The House Majority PAC is also jumping on the airwaves for the first time. The topic of their TV ad is the same, though this spot tries to frame Quist's well-publicized financial problems as a positive, saying that Quist "knows what [it's] like" to "struggle[] with big medical bills" "because it happened to him." The rest of the ad slams Gianforte in similar terms. According to Politico, though, HMP's buy is for just $25,000, which is very small, particularly given the huge sums raised for this race.
Finally, the pro-GOP Congressional Leadership Fund, which has been spending heavily on Gianforte's behalf, has one more new ad. Once again, it hits Quist over his debts and liens and says he'd be a Pelosi lackey in Congress. Oddly, though, the spot starts with five full uninterrupted seconds of Quist playing a guitar and singing his campaign song before the narrator sneers, "Rob Quist is folksy." Is that supposed to be an insult in Montana?
Senate
● PA-Sen, PA-Gov: On Friday, four-term northwestern Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Mike Kelly announced that he would not run for governor against Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, but was still considering challenging Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in 2018 and would reach a decision later this summer. A handful of prominent Republicans have already entered the race for governor or are considering doing so, but Republicans have had less luck landing a challenger of Kelly's stature against Casey. So far, real-estate executive Jeff Bartos and state Reps. Jim Christina and Rick Saccone are running, but none of them starts out with much name recognition in this large swing state.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Alaska has been hampered by a severe state budget crisis for years thanks to low oil prices, but the field to take on potentially vulnerable independent Gov. Bill Walker in 2018 has been slow to develop. Conservative blog Must Read Alaska reports that Republican state Senate President Pete Kelly is being encouraged to run, while state GOP Sen. Mike Dunleavy is "all-but-certain" to do so. Dunleavy left the Republican caucus earlier in 2017 due to disagreements with his party's stance on the budget and previously refused to rule out running for governor, but Kelly has not said anything publicly yet.
Walker, who was elected with the support of Democrats in 2014, recently called the legislature into a special session for up to 30 days to deal with the budget. With the Democratic-led coalition controlling the state House favoring an income tax and the GOP-led Senate wanting deeper social spending cuts instead, it's highly uncertain what the outcome will be. Any ultimate budget fix could contain deeply unpopular provisions, and it's possible Walker might not seek a second term since he hasn't yet totally committed to doing so. Potential candidates will likely reveal more about their plans once the special session concludes.
● CA-Gov: Multiple media outlets have recently reported about renewed speculation that state Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de León will join the Democratic field for governor in 2018, but he hadn't said anything publicly about his interest since refusing to rule out a bid a few months ago. On Thursday, De León addressed those rumors by once again refusing to rule out running, but his actions might speak louder than those words. De León sent out a highly polished 90-second video to Democrats ahead of Saturday's annual state party convention in Sacramento, which had the sort of content one might find in a candidate introduction spot.
If De León gets in, he'll join three other well-known Democrats who have already gotten a head start by launching their campaigns in 2016 and even 2015, including Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, state Treasurer John Chiang, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. De León had $1.6 million on hand at the beginning of 2017 that he could transfer to a campaign for governor, but California is an absurdly expensive state and he'll likely be starting off with a major name-recognition deficit against better-known rivals like Newsom. However, as the first Latino Senate leader and with a list of progressive accomplishments to point to, De León could be a formidable contender ahead of the top-two primary.
● FL-Gov: Democratic Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine has been considering running for governor and already put $2 million into a political committee ahead of a possible bid, but at a recent event, the self-described "radical centrist" suggested that he might run as an independent or even a Republican instead of in a potentially crowded Democratic primary. Levine is worth at least $100 million and has been a major source of Democratic fundraising, so he could create significant problems for the party if he decides to run as an independent and heavily self-funds his campaign. The mayor is reportedly in no hurry to decide, which is unlikely to please Democrats.
With GOP Gov. Rick Scott facing term limits in 2018 and an unpopular Donald Trump potentially weighing down Republican candidates next year, Democrats are eager to finally win the governor's office for the first time in 24 years. Rep. Gwen Graham, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, and real estate company owner Chris King have already announced their candidacies, while multi-millionaire and prominent trial attorney John Morgan is also considering running for Team Blue.
● OH-Gov: A few months ago, Democratic former Youngstown Mayor Jay Williams expressed interest in running for governor in 2018 and said he'd "likely make a decision in March or April at the latest." Nonetheless, March and April came and went without any apparent announcement, but Williams instead voted with his feet by recently taking a job with the Connecticut-based Hartford Foundation for Public Giving. Williams dropping out of the mix will likely come as a relief to former state Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, whose Youngstown-area district overlaps with Williams' base. Schiavoni faces former Rep. Betty Sutton, ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich, and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley in the Democratic primary, while a few other prominent Democrats are considering running.
House
● NJ-03: Despite his immense personal wealth and his South Jersey congressional seat supporting Trump 51-45, Republican Rep. Tom MacArthur may have just painted an enormous target on his back for 2018 after he played a key role in helping the House GOP pass its health care bill early in May. Prominent attorney Katherine Hartman is considering challenging MacArthur as a Democrat and has already filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC to begin raising money. Hartman is a longtime civil rights attorney who once served as president of the Burlington County Bar Association, meaning she could have the right connections needed to fundraise for this incredibly expensive ancestrally GOP district.
In addition to Hartman, the Burlington County Times also reports that New Jersey Hospital Association Director Betsy Ryan is considering running, while an unnamed Democratic source says the DCCC is interested in recruiting someone like Assemblywoman Pamela Lampitt or Assemblyman Troy Singleton. However, there's no direct word from any of those three Democrats about their interest. National security expert Andrew Kim had recently said he was considering running here and Democrats might even have a primary with multiple noteworthy candidates, which would be a big change of fortunes after MacArthur skated by against a weak perennial Democratic candidate in 2016.
● NM-01: Edgewood Mayor Pro Tem John Abrams is the latest Democrat to join the race to for the open 1st Congressional District, which Democratic Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is vacating to run for governor next year. Abrams highlighted his support for issues such as single-payer health care that are likely to endear him to progressives in this 52-35 Clinton district, but he has a distinct disadvantage when it comes to geography. Edgewood has a mere 4,000 residents or so and is located in Santa Fe County, whereas the vast bulk of the 1st's voters come from far more populous Albuquerque and its suburbs in Bernalillo County. Abrams joins several other noteworthy Democrats in the primary, including state party chair Deb Haaland, Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis, and retired University of New Mexico law school dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez.
● PA-01: The District Attorney's race in Philadelphia got the lion's share of attention on Tuesday, as progressive civil rights lawyer Larry Krasner won a surprisingly large victory in the Democratic primary (which, in this dark-blue city, is tantamount to election). However, the other citywide elected position up that night—the city controller's race—provided an even more surprising result. Three-term incumbent Alan Butkovitz lost by a convincing 17-point margin to a newcomer who hasn't held office before, Rebecca Rhynhart.
It's a puzzling result, since Butkovitz wasn't known for being dirty or embroiled in any scandal; it may just boil down to a desire for a fresh face who isn't connected to the city's traditional Democratic machine. The local party has been led for over 30 years by Bob Brady, who, in addition to his old-school party boss duties, also serves as U.S. House member for the 1st Congressional District in in his spare time. This result has a lot of people in Philly wondering whether the septuagenarian Brady is losing his grip on the ability to deliver the City of Brotherly Love's votes. While the local party truly didn't seem to have a horse in the district attorney primary, they definitely did with Butkovitz … and on top of that, four of the nine Court of Common Pleas judges with the party's backing lost in Tuesday's primary.
That's on top of a rash of previous problems in recent years, like the poor turnout in heavily African-American wards in the 2016 presidential election, which contributed significantly to Hillary Clinton's statewide loss, and the screwup in in the 197th State House District special election, where Democrats had to run a (successful) write-in campaign after their candidate got knocked off the ballot. One counterargument might be that the local party did get current mayor Jim Kenney through the 2015 mayoral primary. However, Brady was backing Anthony Williams prior to Kenney's entry, suggesting he also wasn't able to clear the field for his then-preferred candidate (Kenney's late entry was engineered by organized labor, who were dissatisfied with the other options).
● SC-05: Following an automatic recount that took place on Friday, South Carolina election officials declared that former state Rep. Ralph Norman had defeated State House Speaker Pro Tempore Tommy Pope in the Republican runoff for next month's special election in the state's 5th Congressional District. The recount, which was required because the two candidates were separated by less than 1 percent of the vote, did not change a single vote, leaving Norman with the same 221-vote edge he had on Tuesday night, a margin of 0.6 percent. Pope quickly congratulated Norman, who will now face Democrat Archie Parnell, a tax expert, on June 20.
● UT-03: On Friday, Republican Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox announced a schedule for a special election to replace GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, but state lawmakers are not happy about it. Under Cox's plan, the candidate filing deadline is May 26—bizarrely, over a month before the date Chaffetz has said his resignation will become effective, June 30—and party primaries take place on Aug. 15, the same day as the state's municipal primaries. The general election will happen on Nov. 7.
However, legislators say that Republican Gov. Gary Herbert needs to call a special session to clarify Utah's extremely vague special election laws. They argue that Herbert is taking unilateral action by setting his own rules for the special, and they've made noises about suing. However, unless Herbert backs down and calls a special session, or a lawsuit succeeds in forcing his hand, it looks like the dates are set.
In any event, would-be office-seekers can't count on the dates getting changed, and they now have just a week to decide whether they want to run. They'll probably have to move even more quickly than that, though, because candidates have to submit 7,000 valid signatures to election officials no later than June 12, a fairly daunting task for a very short timeframe. Parties can still choose to hold nominating conventions (a Utah tradition), but candidates can bypass any such conventions by going the petition route.
A few Republicans have already decided to run for what is usually a reliably red seat. State Sen. Deidre Henderson, a former Chaffetz campaign manager, made noises about running almost as soon as her former boss announced he wouldn't seek another term last month, and she jumped in on Friday. Two other GOP legislators and state Rep. Brad Daw and state Sen. Margaret Dayton, have also announced they're in, as is ex-state Rep. Chris Herrod, who ran a forgettable 2012 bid against GOP Sen. Orrin Hatch. Provo Mayor John Curtis also said on Thursday that he'll decide within days. Boston Celtics president Danny Ainge also has been encouraging his son Tanner Ainge, who lives in Utah, to run, and the younger Ainge says he's interested.
However, the potential candidate with the most national name recognition might not run as a Republican. Last year, Trump defeated conservative independent and former GOP congressional aide Evan McMullin 47-24 here, with Hillary Clinton taking third place with 23 percent. Last month, McMullin expressed interest in running, but he didn't say if he was looking at campaigning as a Republican or an independent.
One thing is for sure, though: McMullin's old bosses on Capitol Hill very much don't want him joining their ranks under any circumstances. McMullin pissed off GOP members when he spoke to the Washington Post for a recent article and told the paper that at a June 2016 meeting, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy suggested that Donald Trump was being paid off by the Russian government. After McCarthy and Speaker Paul Ryan's spokespeople denied the event took place, the Post told them there was a recording of the conversation, and they proceeded to unconvincingly argue McCarthy was just joking. According to the National Journal's Daniel Newhauser, House Republicans suspect that McMullin secretly recorded that conversation and leaked it.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
