2018 was the best Democratic performance in a Midterm since 2006. It’s also the last pro-D Midterm since that same year and so it is intriguing to examine how our national politics have changed in that time. 12 years is a long time and political coalitions can change a fair bit over a decade and many of those changes were manifested in specific results in 2018, some of which I detailed here. However, I thought it would be an interesting experiment to examine national exit polls from 2006 and compare them to 2018 to see how things have changed in 12 years, not just of how different demographics are voting but what percent of the electorate those demographics made up. Now let’s preface this with a couple of things. First, I’m using CNN’s exit polls for both years to maintain consistency, and you can view the 2006 exit polls here and the 2018 exit polls here. Secondly, it’s important to remember that exit polls are not the gospel. They are not perfect and in fact they can be very flawed, which you can read about here and here. They are a poll just like any other, which means they come with margin of error and that’s important to remember. That said, let’s dive in to some of the trends I noticed:
White people got more Republican, but there’s also less of them
White Americans have always been more conservative than non-whites and in recent years that has made the Republicans an increasingly white party. With the rise of Trump and his style of white identity politics, it’s not shocking that white voters are voting more heavily GOP than they were in 2006. This November the Republicans won white voters 54-44, compared to a 51-47 victory with that demographic twelve years ago. However, there’s a reason Republicans did worse nationally in 2018 than they did in 2006, despite doing better with the majority demographic of the country’s electorate. That is that white voters made up significantly less of the electorate in 2018 than they did in 2006, with the white share dropping from 79% to 72%. It’s also important to keep in mind that this is a Midterm, which tends to be far whiter than presidential years, even though that was less of the case this year due to higher minority turnout than normal midterms.
Young people are now even more Democratic leaning than they were in 2006
In recent years we’ve been rather aware of the fact that young people lean more to the left than older generations, but it’s worth pointing out just how extreme that divide has gotten- far more than it was in 2006. In 2006, the 18-29 demographic voted 60-38 in favor of Democrats and the 30-44 demographic voted 53-45 in favor of Democrats. Compare that to 2018, where the numbers were 67-32 (!!!) for 18-29 and 58-39 for 30-44. Now the fact that those demographics still aren’t huge shares of the electorate is what results in it not being a massive national blowout, but it’s still astonishing. If Democrats are going to win nationally by about 9 points, that means that the 18-29 demographic was about 26 points to the left of the national average (!!!). Compare that to 1984, when that same demographic was about even with the national average. What does it mean going forward? That’s a discussion for another day, but it’s still worth pointing out.
The electorate was more liberal- but also more conservative
One of the striking facts I came across was the hollowing out of the political center, those who classify themselves as “moderates”. In 2006, 47% of voters classified themselves as moderate, while 20% classified themselves as liberal and 32% as conservative. In 2018, that moderate number bled down to 37%, while the liberal number grew dramatically to 27% and the conservative number went up to 36%. That phenomenon doesn’t entirely explain why both parties continue to move to opposite poles, but it does give hints as to why moderate candidates have increasingly vanished and the party bases are less willing to compromise.
Your views on the President increasingly determined your vote for President
We’ve known how important partisanship and presidential politics have become to down-ballot voting patterns, but these exit polls drive home the point. In 2006, by and large, your view on President Bush determined which party you voted for in the Midterm. But there were still a significant but small portion of the electorate that was willing to split. 14% of voters who approved of Bush voted for Democrats and 16% of voters who disapproved of Bush voted for Republicans. In 2018, those numbers fell to 11% and 8%, respectively, when concerning Trump. Additionally, looking at the prior Presidential vote, in 2006, 15% of people who said they had voted for Bush in the 2004 election voted for Democrats in the Midterm and 7% of people who had said voted for Kerry crossed over to tab the GOP. In 2018, those numbers fell to 8% and 5%, respectively, with regards to Trump and Clinton in 2016. Increasingly, your approval of the President, or at the very least whether you voted for him in the previous election, will determine who you pull the lever for in the Midterms.
A lot of people were willing to ignore a good economy to punish the President’s party
The economy is not a good predictor of Midterm results, and that had been written about extensively prior to the Midterm. It’s the President’s approval rating that is the most important factor, but it is true that the economy is a huge influencer in determining the President’s approval rating. Both Trump and George W. Bush were unpopular in their respective midterms being analyzed, but they encountered different economies. Trump’s economy is pretty darn good. Bush’s was solid, as it was pre-crash but also not quite where it had been a year prior. Indeed that showed up in the exit poll data: 9% of voters rated the economy as “excellent” in 2006 and 40% rated it as “good”. In 2018, those numbers were 17% and 51%, respectively, meaning that 68% of this year’s midterm electorate rated the economy as either “good” or “excellent”. Most of the time, that would be enough for a President to dodge a catastrophic Midterm. This year was not most of the time. While in 2006, the Republicans got 66% of people who rated the economy as “good”, in 2018, they got just 51% of those voters. Those who rated the economy as “excellent” remained pretty faithful to the GOP in both elections as those tend to be the most hardcore partisans. But that “good” number is important. About 24% of the Midterm electorate (47% of 51%) rated the nation’s economy as “good”, yet voted against the party that presides over it, which is pretty astounding and gives clues as to how much Americans detest the President’s behavior compared to past Presidents.
Education is now a defining divide in American politics
In the aftermath of 2016, there was extensive discussion about education and how it affects voting patterns. 2018’s results largely confirmed many of those beliefs, with Democrats doing very well in highly educated areas like suburban Los Angeles, Detroit, Minneapolis, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and DC. Still, it’s worth looking at the national numbers to see how things are shifting. Among voters of all races, Democrats won college educated voters 53-46 in 2006 and 59-39 (!!) in 2018, a thirteen point swing among that demographic. Meanwhile, non-college voters went from 53-45 D in 2006 to a 49-49 split in 2018. We’ve known that a major reason for that shift is white college educated voters getting bluer and white non-college voters getting much redder. Unfortunately, we don’t have 2006 data on that divide in these exit polls, as that division was not talked about nearly as much then as it is now. That said, for reference, the 2018 numbers were the following: white college grad 53-45 D, white non-college 61-37 R. While education may not be as important as age or race, it’s very clearly a defining divide in American politics, which was not the case 12 years ago.
The gender gap was bigger
This year’s election was talked about as being the “year of the woman part II” in American politics, following the first “year of the woman”, which was 1992. After all, Democrats nominated women for US House races at a jaw-dropping rate and female candidates accounted for 24 of the 43 seats Democrats flipped from Republicans in the House. Both seats the Dems flipped in the Senate were also female candidates (Jacky Rosen (NV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)), and there will be 5 new female Governors (KS, ME, MI, NM, SD). How did this happen? Mostly because women are increasingly favoring Democrats at the federal level, with women going 59-40 in favor of Team Blue overall, and women made up 52% of the electorate in 2018. Compare that 19 point romp to the 12 point victory (55-43) Democrats had in 2006. Additionally, men went the opposite direction, going from 50-47 D in 2006 to 51-47 R in 2018. Add it up and 2018 had a 23 point gender gap in these exit polls, which was not as much as pre-election polls indicated it could be, though there will be more research done in subsequent weeks to nail down the exact number. That said, it was still the largest gender gap in recorded history, which places gender right next to education as one of America’s new political divides.
Religion in American Politics is really White Evangelical vs. Not
We use language to describe religion in politics casting those who are religious in broad terms as opposed to those who are not religious. However, these exit polls help to shed light on why we need to be more specific. While it was true in both 2006 and 2018 that those who attend religious services weekly are far more likely to vote Republican than those who never attend religious services, the most notable divide is white evangelical Christians versus everyone else. White evangelical Christians made up nearly the same amount of the electorate in both elections (24% vs 26%), yet the demographic got even more conservative. In 2006, this group voted for Republicans 70-28, while in 2018 it voted for Republicans 75-22, an eleven point shift in margin. Meanwhile, the category of “not white evangelical” got even bluer, from 60-38 D in 2006 to 66-32 D in 2018. Put next to each other, it might be the most clear way to define the country: one quarter of the country votes for Republicans 75-25 while the remaining three quarters of the country votes for Democrats 66-34. That result is enough to produce a healthy Dem win, but even in good GOP years, there is still a huge divide between these two groups, which is simply fascinating. Put more plainly, it’s a divide that doesn’t get talked about enough and it dwarfs all other religious divides in American politics.
Conclusion
The 2018 Midterm revealed many of the faultlines that our current politics are going to be fought along in the years going forward. Any of these trends can be interpreted as important but if I had to single out two as most important, I’d likely go with education and partisanship. Education is rather obvious because it has huge implications for the political map: urban/suburban communities and educated states/jurisdictions are moving towards Democrats, while rural areas and states/jurisdictions with low levels of education are moving towards Republicans. That vicious partition has real consequences for the way parties act both moving forward but also in the present, like how Wisconsin State House Speaker Robin Vos (R) seemed to believe that Milwaukee and Madison are not legitimate or meaningful communities since they overwhelmingly vote for Democrats in a recent comment. That type of rhetoric is likely to be amplified in the coming years as these divides continue to cement themselves. As for partisanship, it helps to explain what we’re seeing in the Senate and the House and helps to set expectations moving forward. Most notably, the days of Senate elections like 2008, where Democrats easily won races in South Dakota, Louisiana, and Arkansas despite losing decisively in those states at the presidential level, are long gone. Finally, I want to note that the point about the economy has important ramifications for 2020 and is not good news for President Trump, but that is a post for another day. For now, I hope I provided interesting enough data and analysis and I will see you again soon.