The results in Wyoming only confirm what multiple studies, including one commissioned by Energy Secretary Rick Perry, had concluded—regulations were responsible for only a tiny percentage of coal’s decline. And coal jobs are not coming back.
While coal mining employment has been on the decline for decades – from a peak of more than 800,000 in the 1920s to 130,000 in 2011 – the pace of job loss over the past six years has been particularly dramatic. After campaigning on a promise to end what he called his predecessor’s “War on Coal,” President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order in March 2017 ordering agencies to review or rescind a raft of Obama-era environmental regulations, telling coal miners they would be “going back to work.”
This paper offers an empirical diagnosis of what caused the coal collapse, and then examines the prospects for a recovery of US coal production and employment by modeling the impact of President Trump’s executive order and assessing the global coal market outlook. In short, the paper finds ...
Increased competition from cheap natural gas is responsible for 49 percent of the decline in domestic US coal consumption. Lower-than-expected demand is responsible for 26 percent, and the growth in renewable energy is responsible for 18 percent. …
Implementing all the actions in President Trump’s executive order to roll back Obama-era environmental regulations could stem the recent decline in US coal consumption, but only if natural gas prices increase going forward. If natural gas prices remain at or near current levels or renewable costs fall more quickly than expected, US coal consumption will continue its decline despite Trump’s aggressive rollback of Obama-era regulations.
Donald Trump does not dig coal. Miners dig coal. Donald Trump has another skill set—lying to miners about their future, and promoting policies that are putting states like Wyoming on the brink of disaster.
And before anyone starts to feel like at least those five jobs show that the industry as stabilized … don’t be too sure.
According to the Mining Association’s count last year, the coal industry lost more than 900 jobs during the downturn and about 300 returned. Whether those were part-time or counting contract jobs is less clear.
“I’m reluctant to get into how companies are adjusting,” [Travis Deti, executive director of the Wyoming Mining Association] said. “I think you’ve seen some attrition, some retirements and some new jobs coming back.”
Reluctance is a good idea, since looking at how jobs were really counted might reveal that even those five jobs were just some creative accounting.
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