On Friday, the latest ABC / Washington Post poll dropped Trump’s approval rating to only 36 percent. That puts Trump one point behind the current rating for Richard Nixon. That poll also showed 49 percent of Americans are ready to get on with the business of impeaching Trump, even though special counsel Robert Mueller is still likely months away from dropping a report.
Overnight, the ratings obsessed Trump attacked the accuracy of the poll, pointed to the reliably pro-Trump Rasmussen, then probably called Sean Hannity to whine about the injustice of it all. But Trump fans trying to reassure themselves that the ABC / Washington Post poll was a one-off liberal fluke, should hide their eyes. Because Investor’s Business Daily just released their latest monthly poll.
Just 36% say they approve of the job President Trump is doing, a 5-point drop from last month, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll. Fifty six percent disapprove of Trump's job performance, up from 53% the month before.
The IBD poll also includes a value they call the “Presidential Leadership Index.” It’s a number that includes not just raw approval, but opinions on questions that IBD considers key to “strength of leadership.” And how did Trump do there?
The broader IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index plunged 11.6% to 40.4. That's one of the biggest monthly drops since IBD started tracking this index in January 2000.
Considering the sheer number of polls and the fluctuations of the news cycle, it’s never a good idea to get too excited—or too depressed—over any poll, or even a group of polls. However, Civiqs shows Trump at his worst rating since the election.
Trump is also net negative among male voters for the first time in 2018, and has no advantage among voters over 65 for the first time since the election.
Polls can be fickle. And with two months remaining to the November elections, they can still change … but the plunge over the last week suggests that Trump has broken through a floor and started to bleed voters that Republicans really can’t afford to lose.
The IBD numbers show that Trump lost 7 points among Republicans. A 76 percent approval rating in his own party may not sound that bad. It’s bad. And for a GOP that has bet the farm on Trump going into November, it has to have red lights flashing and sirens going in every congressional district.
Those sirens will only get louder when Republican candidates read past the headlines. Last month’s poll had Republicans sighing in relief, as IBD was the one national poll that still gave the GOP even levels of approval. But this month, Democrats are showing an 11 point advantage.
Trump is down with Republicans. Republicans are shedding approval. And with fewer people identifying themselves as Republicans in the first place, Trump also lost ground with independents.
IBD is careful to point out that all this is against the background of positive numbers on the economic front. It seems unlikely that daily tweets of “look at that stock market!” are likely to have much impact on these numbers.
Rasmussen will just have to raise their numbers to 500 percent approval, to keep Trump’s averages respectable.